Jake is a Football and Entertainment betting expert, with a Man City season ticket and a deep knowledge of reality TV betting angles
- The odds of anyone wanting to run the Marathon in 2024 and getting a place are 24/1
- The London Marathon Takes place this Sunday 24th April 2023
- Your chance of getting a spot to run in 2024 is less likely than Messi signing for Chelsea
Our Betting Experts at OLBG have crunched the numbers to reveal there is just a 24/1 chance of getting a place at the London Marathon in 2024. With the ballot opening on Saturday (April 22), you will have a better chance of seeing Lionel Messi sign for Chelsea at 20/1 with bookmakers and Wayne Rooney being next England manager at 18/1.
There’s also a bigger chance of Aston Villa boss Unai Emery ending up at Chelsea in the summer at 16/1, and Manchester City ending the season without winning a trophy at 10/1.
It comes as runners prepare to go head to head on Sunday for 2023’s race, but hundreds of thousands will be entering the ballot for next year’s offering the day before.
20/4/23
More than 400,000 runners are expected to enter the ballot for the London Marathon 2024 on Saturday (April 22), but the odds don’t look generous.
Research from OLBG - using available odds from betting sites and estimations from industry experts - shows there is a bigger chance of Lionel Messi signing for Chelsea than there is of getting a place at the big race at 24/1.
- You’ll have a better chance of seeing Kylian Mbappe sign for Liverpool and Lionel Messi lining up for Chelsea, both at 20/1, than jogging in the capital next year.
- In-form Manchester City have a far better chance of ending the season empty handed - despite being on course for a treble - at 10/1.
- And Manchester United legend Wayne Rooney is more likely to become England’s next manager at 16/1.
- Away from sport, Boris Johnson is more likely to become the next Prime Minister after Rishi Sunak at 7/1.
Steve Madgwick OLBG Editor-in-Chief, added, “We’ve crunched the numbers and we’re afraid anyone keen on lacing up their running shoes for the London Marathon will not be filled with hope." our statistical experts have concluded, "There is just a 24/1 chance of getting a place, with the odds of Lionel Messi signing for Chelsea this year at a more favourable 20/1.”
Other odds on niche events in the betting markets.
| Event | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
|
Tyson Fury to beat Oleksandr Usyk if they fight |
1/3 |
75% |
|
UK to rejoin the EU as full member before 2026 |
7/1 |
12.5% |
|
Boris Johnson to be next Prime Minister after Rishi Sunak |
7/1 |
12.5% |
|
Jeremy Corbyn to win London Mayor election in 2024 |
8/1 |
11% |
|
Manchester City to finish season without winning trophy |
10/1 |
9% |
|
Unai Emery to become next Chelsea manager |
16/1 |
5.9% |
|
Wayne Rooney to become next England manager |
18/1 |
5.3% |
|
Kylian Mbappe to sign for Liverpool |
20/1 |
4.8% |
|
Lionel Messi to sign for Chelsea |
20/1 |
4.8% |
|
Getting a place at London Marathon 2023 |
24/1 |
4% |
|
Harry Kane to sign for Newcastle |
25/1 |
3.8% |
|
Marcus Rashford to win Ballon d’Or |
25/1 |
3.8% |
|
NASA to detect alien life (on, or originating from, a non-terrestrial source) |
33/1 |
2.9% |
|
Paul Pogba to sign for Nottingham Forest |
33/1 |
2.9% |
|
UK to win Eurovision Song Contest 2023 |
33/1 |
2.9% |
|
Dwayne Johnson to be next US President |
40/1 |
2.4% |
|
Jesse Marsch to join Chelsea |
50/1 |
2% |
|
Meghan Markle to be next US President |
100/1 |
1% |
|
Earth to be hit by an asteroid |
150/1 |
1% |
|
Mark Zuckerberg to be next US President |
200/1 |
0.5% |
|
Darwin Nunez to win Ballon d’Or |
500/1 |
0.2% |
