Many people bet based on headlines or hunches. I dig into research and market moves behind political odds & manager markets, so you can back decisions, not guesses.
- Virtually no chance of a referendum on irish reunification by the end of 2022 according to bookmakers odds
- Betting odds predicting that it will be at least 2027 before we see a referendum on the subject
- It is 3/1 for a Vote on Irish Unification to pass before Jan 1st 2030
- Loyalist Party Sin Fein and Alliance Party now both major player in Northern Ireland
- Despite the majority of the votes for pro-alliance parties, the public still oppose post-Brexit border protocols
One would have imagined with Sin Fein being elected in Northern Ireland, and the Alliance Party coming to prominence as a credible third party, along with the fact that because of the result the majority have voted for parties that are fine with the protocol establishing new border controls, that a unified Ireland would be soon on the cards.
It is an interesting situation whereby the majority have voted for the loyalist party but the same majority want to remain part of the post-Brexit United Kingdom - a strange set of affairs for sure.
So certain in the short term that reunification referendum will not happen, there is no price available at Smarkets that it will not happen before the of the year and it is very unlikely anything will happen for at least few years yet when looking at the betting on which year it might occur.
When Will Irish Reunification Referendum take Place?
Bookmakers are offering odds on when the Irish Reunification referendum might take place
| Year | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 or later | 1/10 | 90.91% |
| 2026 | 9/1 | 10.00% |
| 2025 | 13/1 | 7.14% |
| 2024 | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| 2023 | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| 2022 | 100/1 | 0.99% |
It is possible to bet on when Ireland may become wholly unified and PaddyPower go 3/1 for a Vote on Irish Unification to pass before Jan 1st 2030
