Jake is a Football and Entertainment betting expert, with a Man City season ticket and a deep knowledge of reality TV betting angles
- Reform UK remain favourites for the upcoming Runcorn and Helsby by-election
- First test for Keir Starmer's Labour Party
- Reform UK look to have big win in by-election
Reform UK remain favourites for the upcoming Runcorn and Helsby by-election
Betting odds continue to be offered on the Runcorn and Helsby By-Election with UK Betting Sites now changing the odds around once again after it was officially confirmed to be taking place earlier this week.
When Mike Amesbury was originally suspended by the Labour Party, betting sites offered odds straight away on the by-election with Reform UK opening as the 4/11 favourites.
They've since drifted slightly in the market to 4/6 with those odds from William Hill giving an implied probability of 60% that Reform wins.
Nigel Farage's party have yet to confirm their representative for the Runcorn and Helsby by-election but they are still installed as favourites to win.
| Runcorn and Helsby By-Election Winner | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 4/6 | 60.0% |
| Labour | 6/5 | 45.5% |
| Conservatives | 14/1 | 6.7% |
| Lid Dems | 33/1 | 3.8% |
| Workers Party of Britain | 50/1 | 2.0% |
What the expert says...
Jake Ashton - Senior News Editor - OLBG.com
First test for Keir Starmer's Labour Party
Labour officially triggered the Runcorn and Helsby by-election earlier this week with the expected date for the voting currently May 1.
This vote will be the first big by-election test for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party with the market current putting Labour as the second favourites.
Former Labour MP Mike Amesbury resigned after he punched a constituent and therefore received a suspended prison sentence.
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Reform UK look to have big win in by-election
The upcoming by-election could mark a major moment for Reform UK, as the party aims to position itself as a significant force in British politics.
In the 2024 General Election, Jason Moorcroft stood for Reform UK in Runcorn and Helsby, securing second place with 18.1% of the vote.
With Amesbury winning 52.9%, the by-election is expected to shape up as another head-to-head between Reform and Labour.
