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- Bookmakers make a Cabinet reshuffle next week a 45% chance
- Gavin Williamson is likely to remain to the end of the year according to betting sites
- Dominic Raab betting odds to remain beyond 2020 remain positive at 58%
- Rishi Sunak has the most solid cabinet position as far as bookmakers are concerned.
Cabinet Shake-Up Chances
Speculation rose on whether there is a planned Cabinet reshuffle about to take place when Boris Johnson chose to swerve questions on the subject at a press conference yesterday.
Those actions have spurned bookmakers into creating odds as to whether a reshuffle will take place in the next week or not.
Currently, bets are coming for a 'No' but it's not a clear decision, and punters are relatively evenly split.
Cabinet reshuffle before 13th September betting odds.
| Reshuffle before 13/9 | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| No | 1.52 | 65.79% |
| Yes | 2.66 | 37.04% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 8/9/2021
Secretary of State for Education
Gavin Williamson is the current secretary of State for Education and is the most rumoured cabinet minister to be under pressure in their role.
Boris Johnson has previously said that he is considering a shake up and some consider this would be a news grabber and distraction from the social care rows.
Gavin Williamson to Remain a Cabinet Minister in 2021 Betting Odds
Betting on politics is a popular activity for current affairs followers and this is just one of many markets available for predicting political events on the landscape.
| Member of Cabinet at end of 2021 | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.70 | 58.82% |
| No | 2.36 | 42.37% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 8/9/2021
First Secretary
The security of Dominic Raab's position has been up for debate since the fall of Kabul and is subject to betting around the next cabinet minister to leave their position.
Unsurprisingly, Raab is one of the favorites and most speculated to be shifted in any Tory party reshuffle before the end of the year, let alone next week.
Dominic Raab to Be Replaced as Foreign Secretary in 2021 Betting Odds
Raab's odds to remain Foreign Secretary between now and the new year are around the same as Williamson's.
| Replaced as Foreign Secretary in 2021 | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Remain | 1.7 | 58.82% |
| Replaced | 2.28 | 43.86% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 8/9/2021
Chancellor
According to bookmakers there is almost no chance that Rishi Sunak will be moved on from his position as Chancellor. betting sites give him a 90% chance of keeping his role into 2022.
He also features highly in the next Conservative Leader betting too.
Rishi Sunak to Remain Chancellor to at least 1st January 2022
| Rishi Sunak to Remain Chancellor | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.11 | 90.09% |
| No | 65 | 1.54 |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 8/9/2021
