Editor-In-Chief with 20 years experience covering the betting angles to breaking news stories. Daily slots player, Portsmouth fan and League Snooker Player
- Kier Starmer is given a 20% chance of being the next Prime Minister by betting sites
- Andy Burnham and Angela Rayner tipped to take over from Starmer as head of Labour
- Betting odds suggest a 66% chance of reintroduction of leadership electoral college being rejected.
- Bookmakers report on bets coming in for a General Election early in 2023
Conference Pending
The Labour party conference will take place from this weekend in Brighton and things are set to get heated with the reinstatement of the leadership electoral college bandied about before we've even got started.
Betting sites have reacted with a switch-up in betting odds on a range of political betting markets.
At the same time, the chance of an early general election taking place gains ground with punters placing bets on when it will happen.
Whilst all this is going on, Kier Starmer is almost the same price as Rishi Sunak to be the next Prime minister after Boris Johnson which suggests no chance of a conservative leadership change ahead of a general election. Betting on the next Prime Minister remains a popular market and it currently makes for interesting reading
Next Prime Minister After Boris Johnson Betting Odds.
| MP | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Rishi Sunak | 4.7 | 21.28% |
| Kier Starmer | 4.8 | 20.83% |
| Liz Truss | 13 | 7.69% |
| Michael Gove | 17 | 5.88% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 23/9/2021
Next Labour Leader
The chances of Kier Starmer becoming the next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson does rely on a number of factors, however.
- Labour winning the next general election
- Starmer still being the leader
There is also betting on who will be the next leader after Starmer should he resign or lose his position.
Andy Burnham and Angela Rayner are waiting in the wings with the latter finding. Lisa Nandy is also in betting on the next Labour leader but her future in the Labour Party is less assured.
Next Labour Leader Betting Odds
| Next Labour Leader | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Burnham | 5/2 | 28.57% |
| Angela Rayner | 4/1 | 20% |
| Lisa Nandy | 10/1 | 9% |
| Yvette Cooper | 16/1 | 6% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 23/9/2021
Fire in the Hole
Things are sure to be interesting at the conference with Starmer citing the reintroduction of the leadership electoral college and opening up the choice of party leader to all party members rather than the Corbynite favoritism in the current system.
A situation that is inflaming the left and Unions ahead of the meeting in Brighton and sure to be a hot topic.
Labour to reintroduce leadership electoral college betting
| Reintroduction | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6/4 | 40% |
| No | 1/2 | 66% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 23/9/2021
Date of Next General Election
A standard scheduled General Election has always been favoured by punters betting on which year the next will take place but since May this year, there has been continued support for it to happen a year early in 2023.
Betting on the next General Election has ramped up in recent months and the odds between 2023 and 2024 have got closer.
Year of Next General Election Betting Odds
| Year | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 or later | 4/6 | 60% |
| 2023 | 7/4 | 36% |
| 2022 | 14/1 | 6% |
