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- Kier Starmer is given a 20% chance of being the next Prime Minister by betting sites
- Andy Burnham and Angela Rayner tipped to take over from Starmer as head of Labour
- Betting odds suggest a 66% chance of reintroduction of leadership electoral college being rejected.
- Bookmakers report on bets coming in for a General Election early in 2023
Conference Pending
The Labour party conference will take place from this weekend in Brighton and things are set to get heated with the reinstatement of the leadership electoral college bandied about before we've even got started.
Betting sites have reacted with a switch-up in betting odds on a range of political betting markets.
The Next Prime Minister betting odds with bookmakers is particularly interesting with Kier Starmer (Labour) the joint-favourite with Rishi Sunak (Conservative) despite various factors having to come together to secure the position. Still, Starmer is currently given a 4/1 chance at betting sites.
Nigel Skinner - Political Betting Expert - OLBG.com
At the same time, the chance of an early general election taking place gains ground with punters placing bets on when it will happen.
Whilst all this is going on, Kier Starmer is almost the same price as Rishi Sunak to be the next Prime minister after Boris Johnson which suggests no chance of a conservative leadership change ahead of a general election. Betting on the next Prime Minister remains a popular market and it currently makes for interesting reading
Next Prime Minister After Boris Johnson Betting Odds.
| MP | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Rishi Sunak | 4.7 | 21.28% |
| Kier Starmer | 4.8 | 20.83% |
| Liz Truss | 13 | 7.69% |
| Michael Gove | 17 | 5.88% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 23/9/2021
Next Labour Leader
The chances of Kier Starmer becoming the next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson does rely on a number of factors, however.
- Labour winning the next general election
- Starmer still being the leader
There is also betting on who will be the next leader after Starmer should he resign or lose his position.
Andy Burnham is the current 5/2 favourite to be the next Labour leader after Kier Starmer but has Angela Rayner close on his heels as betting support grows for her chance.
Nigel Skinner - Political Betting Expert - OLBG.com
Andy Burnham and Angela Rayner are waiting in the wings with the latter finding. Lisa Nandy is also in betting on the next Labour leader but her future in the Labour Party is less assured.
Next Labour Leader Betting Odds
| Next Labour Leader | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Burnham | 5/2 | 28.57% |
| Angela Rayner | 4/1 | 20% |
| Lisa Nandy | 10/1 | 9% |
| Yvette Cooper | 16/1 | 6% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 23/9/2021
Fire in the Hole
Things are sure to be interesting at the conference with Starmer citing the reintroduction of the leadership electoral college and opening up the choice of party leader to all party members rather than the Corbynite favoritism in the current system.
A situation that is inflaming the left and Unions ahead of the meeting in Brighton and sure to be a hot topic.
Labour to reintroduce leadership electoral college betting
| Reintroduction | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6/4 | 40% |
| No | 1/2 | 66% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 23/9/2021
The Leadership Electoral College will be a hot topic this next week at the Labour Party Conference in Brighton. There remains a 66% chance with Bookmakers that it will not be reintroduced, however.
Nigel Skinner - Political Betting Expert - OLBG.com
Date of Next General Election
A standard scheduled General Election has always been favoured by punters betting on which year the next will take place but since May this year, there has been continued support for it to happen a year early in 2023.
Betting on the next General Election has ramped up in recent months and the odds between 2023 and 2024 have got closer.
Year of Next General Election Betting Odds
| Year | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 or later | 4/6 | 60% |
| 2023 | 7/4 | 36% |
| 2022 | 14/1 | 6% |
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