Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

[davidg3907]

Due to continued fluctuations in the price after yesterday's news concerning the Toffees, I backed them for 15 pts @ 1.727 and laid 20 pts @ 1.53.

[davidg3907]

To even up some liabilities, I have backed the RT of Bournemouth, Everton, and Southampton for 6 pts @ 4.50.

[davidg3907]

The portfolio had become top-heavy with liabilities on Everton. With difficult matches against Arsenal and Liverpool on the horizon, there was every chance the situation could get out of hand if they lost both games, so something had to be done. A new manager towards the end of a transfer window is never ideal but I was able to ride the waves of fluctuating odds, trading quite happily and although I had decreased the overall lay odds, the liability continued to grow. So did my concern when Gordon was sold and nobody coming in. This led to a run on their odds and I chose to play it safe by backing them quite heavily. The effect was that the trading period saw me back them for 7 pts @ 1.41. The position will be revisited when their next two games have been played.

Other recent bets that are matched or open.
Aston Villa. The balance was matched @ 120
Tottenham. No movement and the balance will be cancelled if not matched after their next game.
Southampton. I laid 5 pts @ 1.81.
Leicester. 4 pts remain open @ 6.60.
Leeds. 10 pts remain open @ 7.00.
Bournemouth. I laid 20 pts @ 1.35 as that looked a bit low and may be traded. However, I would be happier if they continued their decline and left just two places on which to concentrate.
Everton. 10 pts open @ 1.76.
Everton. 5 pts open @ 1.82.

Leicester, Leeds, and West Ham continue to be monitored, while Brentford and Aston Villa only become an issue if Bournemouth survive.
Fulham can probably be eliminated but there may still be profit to be made trading the Crystal Palace situation.

[davidg3907]

I continued to back Everton for 10 pts @ 1.96 in-play after the above bets were matched.

At half-time, I entered a request for a further 10 pts @ 2.30. When Everton scored, I managed to amend it to 10 pts @ 2.50 as it wasn't matched instantly. I will lay Everton if Arsenal equalise.

The drift on Everton will cause other odds to shorten; that must be addressed separately.

[davidg3907]

The Everton back bets were all matched, but attempts to lay at shorter than 2.00 failed. That operation is temporarily on hold.

I laid Wolves for 10 pts @ 4.30 and backed them later for 6 pts @ 4.70.

The balance of the Leicester bet was matched @ 6.60.

I tried to lay West Ham while trailing at Newcastle but got no takers. I have since requested 5 pts @ 7.40 of which about 1.6 pts @ 7.40 was matched before the odds drifted. The remaining 3.4 pts matched @ 7.80.

[davidg3907]

Leeds returned from Nottingham empty-handed despite appearing to be the better side for much of the game.
This was reflected in the in-play odds as they refused to move a great idea. I laid Leeds for 14 pts @ 3.86 (nett) and Forest for 5 pts @ 3.50 as well as backing Forest for 10 pts @ 3.80.

I have laid Crystal Palace for 5 pts @ 15.00.

The long-standing request to back Leeds 10 pts @ 7.00 has been amended to 3.70.
I have also requested a further lay of Palace 8 pts @ 13.00. - matched
I have requested to lay Everton for 15 pts @ 2.30 - matched
I have laid 0.75 pts Liverpool @ 300.
The coppers open on the Tottenham lay have been cancelled.

[davidg3907]

Small RTs added to the 'insurance' list

1 pt @ 67 Bournemouth Southampton Crystal Palace
4 pts @ 7 Bournemouth Southampton Leeds

[davidg3907]

I laid Leeds for 1 pt @ 3.25 and 5 pts @ 3.20 and then increased the back bet on Leeds to 20 pts @ 3.70 and that was also matched.

I laid Leicester for 5 pts @ 7.40.

I will post a full update after this weekend.

[davidg3907]

I have used a free bet to cover another RT.

2.5 pts @ 13 Bournemouth Southampton Wolves

Any unmatched bets listed for Everton have been cancelled and may be revisited during the weekend matches ahead of Monday's Merseyside showdown.

[davidg3907]

I have laid Crystal Palace 2.5 pts @ 7.80 and 3 pts @ 10.5
I have laid West Ham 3 pts @ 7.80 and 3 pts @ 8.00
I have laid Leeds 1.5 pts @ 3.00
I have requested Aston Villa 1 pt @ 70

I have backed Everton (ongoing trades) for 25 pts @ 2.52
I have laid Everton 21 pts @ 2.30
I have requested Everton 9 pts @ 2.30 - matched
I have requested Everton 7.5 pts @ 2.22 - matched
I have requested Everton 15 pts @ 2.44 - cancelled

Attempts are being made to lay Everton at c. 2.00 and/or back them at c. 3.00

[davidg3907]

The up-to-date situation looks rosy. It is still possible to make a loss on the season, but there is no longer anything that is either a major problem or uncontrollable.

As we are now halfway through February, it does seem strange that only 220 games out of 380 have been played. That leaves scope for more action, but to avoid tieing up more funds in exposure, much will now depend on short or at least shorter-term trades.

Of the 12 teams shown, Fulham and Brentford are no longer deemed part of the battle. Aston Villa are a bit inconsistent. However, they only need about 10-12 points from 16 games to survive and I would expect them to do that in relative comfort.

[davidg3907]

The Aston Villa bet has been matched.

All main relegation candidates are in action at 15.00 on a Saturday. That rarely happens these days until there are fewer teams involved.

Everton v Leeds is naturally the main event, but the undercard is quite attractive too.

Whether that will bring about any trading opportunities is another matter.