Value Betting

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Postby nellberg1 » Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:01 pm

As stated, value is "in the ye of the beholder", so all of this is just my opinion :-)

I had discussions about "value" with my mates all week when I was down Cheltenham. Their favourite motto when putting their bets on was "find the winners and the prices look after themselves". I tried explaining the folly of this thought process but it fell on deaf ears, so despite the bookies offering plenty of ways for punters to secure "value" many punters will have kept to their usual habits and missed out. Examples of "Cheltenham value" available to all punters in this case was:

1) extra places available for e/w betting - Lots of bookies were doing this on the high street, for the big handicaps, but to add to this Paddy Power were doing this for some graded races also. Examples I can think of because I either backed them myself or alerted others were Altior 9/2 (ew 4 places) in the Supreme Novice and Al Ferof 14/1 (ew 4 places). My mate is the ultimate Al Ferof fan so he was going to back him come what may, but getting that extra place turns his losing bet into a winner and he's happy for the rest of the day/week/year :P

2) B.O.G on early morning prices - many times on the graded races I'd check oddschecker 1st thing in the morning and at best prices you'd be betting into a 100% book. This is because firms are boosting their prices to entice you in early on. They are pushing horses out by a point or so to get you to bet with them, and then the theory is that you'll bet on the ultra-competitive handicaps with that firm also. By the time the race comes around all the horses have been cut and the value has gone, for example The Gold Cup SP's were 115%. In the big festivals the best time to bet is on early prices with BOG, the majority of horses will get backed in and if you miss-read the market then you have the benefit of getting the bigger price anyway.

3) Looking to take advantage of the Tote pools - 99% of the time I don't even think about betting on the Tote, but that blinkered view could mean I'm missing value. The scenario in which betting on the Tote can be "value" is if you fancy a big-priced outsider. Prior to the Truimph hurdle a lad in our group said he'd keep faith with Gibralfaro, despite his poor prep run. His SP was 25/1, with some 33/1 floating about. A quick check on the Tote showed he was 60/1. Obviously the dividends can change but it's unlikely to be significantly different as this was 2-3 minutes before the race. I didn't fancy Gibralfaro (He still managed to beat my fancy Zubayr home!) but I didn't think he was a 60/1 shot as he'd been near ante-post favourite prior to a poor trial.

4) money back if 2nd/ money back if the fav win/ money back on fallers - in competitive races it's great to have these extra concessions. Wednesday saw 2 races where this looked solid as both races had 2 strong horses in it and then a big gap to the next runners, the Neptune and the RSA. In the end backing Yanworth, Yorkhill, More Of That and No More Heroes with the "money back if 2nd" concession would have only returned 1 winner and 1 free bet, but injuries put pay to the 2 in the RSA and given the shape of the race they seemed solid bets.

Sometimes value isn't always about the price, it could also be combined with the place terms or by searching into different markets that aren't as "mainstream" as simple win only bets (betting without the favourite in some races made sense). I'm certain value is out there every day, it just takes some searching to find. The more you get to know the shape of a horse race market, or a football match, or a cricket game, the better you'll become at seeing the pointers and being able to get the value.

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Postby nors » Tue Apr 19, 2016 2:37 pm

Great posts on this thread should be essential reading for all of us (and your mates - nellberg1)

The "Shape" of an event formed by the odds is one of my main tools in finding winning and value bets.
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Postby Robmull » Sun Apr 24, 2016 3:54 pm

I recall hearing on Channel 4 not long ago Sir Anthony McCoy state that "you can't live off value alone", or words to that effect.

I totally agree with his comment, but as a regular punter, I am always keen to secure the best value possible for my selections.

I have therefore penned a blog (see below) which I hope will assist readers when assessing the 'value' in respect of the myriad of concessions that are offered by bookmakers.

How To Secure The Best Value Bets During The Turf Flat Season

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