Betfair Laying: How Many Horses Can Win?

Betfair Exchange Trading

On this Betfair review blog, I am looking at form-based Betfair Lay/Trades just before the off. 

Most traders want to know if they can make a living laying horses on Betfair.

I would say it is a big step trying to make a living laying horses, but you can make regular profits. 

There are plenty of opportunities overnight for longer-term trades, but this blog is just concentrating on the live market 15 or so minutes before the race starts.

If you are a Betfair new customer the OLBG betting school article titled Laying and Exchanges Advice would be a good starting point.

Should I Trade The Figures or The Horses on Betfair?

I am not solely trading on the figures, some do trade the figures but I believe the more information you have on a subject the more likely you are to win.

So there would be a fair degree of form and market study prior to the trade, but these lays and trades are only being placed in the last 15 minutes.

Remember there are plenty of other options within trading/laying that some may find useful.

If you have a strategy you are happy with then continue with it, this blog is just my take on Betfair trading and laying.

You should approach laying on Betfair with the maxim “I need to protect my betting bank” 

This should mean that you minimise your losses, as rest assured there will be losses.

With each trade, it's how far you let these losses run, remember you can close the trade and make another at the new price.

You could make 4 losing trades on one horse, but the 5th goes in your favour and you recoup all previous losses. 

You need to balance opening and closing trades, this comes with experience. 

When you sit down to lay and trade expect to be only right a maximum of 50% of the time.

As a matter of fact, don't ever expect anything better ever. So you are going to be wrong 50% of the time:

• Bank that thought.
• Write it down.
• Get a tattoo of it.
• Use it as your screensaver.
• Tell your loved ones.

Why do we as Betfair traders always think that we are going to be correct? 

So now you know you are going to be wrong 50% of the time you can get on and make some money.

Your first course of action a few hours before the first race should be to strike-off races that do not fit into certain criteria.

No one can successfully trade every race, the races are deliberately timed (by the bookies) to start at times not conducive to study time, and to keep you confused, and in previous decades in the betting shop.

So on a 3 meeting National Hunt day you may have races going off at 12.30, 12.40, 12.55, 1.05, 1.15, 1.30, etc.

With starters (especially in Ireland) not concerned about keeping to off times the number of trades we can look at is severely reduced.

You should allow at least 15 minutes ahead of the race to get a feel for the live market, both the Betfair market and the Bookmakers market. 

You may think this is a blow but for Betfair laying/trading, but this is a bonus for the clever trader.

We want to be selective and the bookies have forced us to be selective, so thanks, we will be, so be uber-selective.

There are on an average weekday around 20 horse races, so using the above 50% strategy you are going to lose in 10 of the races if you trade all 20 races.

I would suggest however that certain races are more conducive to trading than others.

Here are some Betfair laying and trading rules that I use, hopefully this will help Betfair new customers be selective.

You cannot trade every race successfully so do need parameters.

Be Selective with Your Betting Exchange Trades

So with each Betfair rule, you instigate, and with the timings of the races, you are narrowing down to the most suitable races of the day.

Add as many rules/guidelines as you wish to narrow down the trading/lay races.

The bookmakers do exactly the same, they have races where the race and markets are very open.

If we compare races to football imagine Man Utd were taking on Darlington, Exeter, and Yeovil in a 3 match tournament you would expect and the bookies would expect Man Utd to triumph 99% of the time, and the prices would reflect this and lays would not be possible.

However, if they were up against Bayern Munich, Barcelona and Real Madrid that % would be nearer 25%. You want to find horse races where Man Utd are taking on their main rivals.

So we need to put ourselves in the shoes of the bookie's odds compiler, where he or she is in a quandary.

The best races for this are those with 8-12 runners, with these each-way terms the bookies cannot offer a price on a horse that they believe could run well and into a place.

In these field sizes they have no wriggle room on prices.
 

By using the rules and statistics above and others, you are in a better position to minimize your losses and maximize your winnings.

By cutting down the number of races you are going to look at it is much easier to focus and see those horses that the market is favouring and also not favouring.

You should be left with around 6 races a day on a 3 meeting day. You can then write down all horses that are 5/1 or less within these 6 races.

You should then be left with between 10 and 20 horses.

Now here is the key you are looking for races where a few horses are being supported, so in an 8 -12 runner race you may get 3 or 4 horses being supported in the betting and exchange markets.

Always look for races where the market and the bookies seem to favour a few runners and then the horse that is weak in the market should jump off the page. 

In the last year, the position in the betting market of the winner from the first three in the betting market was as follows. 

So on average 1 of the first 3 in the betting market won the race 67% of the time and 33% of the time the winner was not one of the first 3 in the betting.

Betting Exchange Races

It's the strength of the other runners that should lead to successful lays.

Very rarely do the bookies allow a horse to drift without another being backed. 

So in all the narrowed down chosen races look for a very strong market where the WINNER is hard to find.

I would suggest that you revert to what you use to do pre betting exchanges and try and find the winner, if it looks tricky for you using your old methods then it is a great lay/trading race. 

You want to see support for at least 3 runners underneath the 10/1 mark if more than 3 then even better in an 8-12 runner race.

So lay those horses and then trade out before the off. Never let the lay/trade go in running.

If the prices go against you then just accept it, and realise that you are going to be wrong 50% of the time. If you learn to accept this you are on your way to being a winning trader.

My Betfair Guidelines

Having been trading since 2003 I have made all the mistakes possible and it has been a steep learning curve. 

My trades always mix form study with prices available. 

The text below are my guidelines, they are not set in stone but I tend to roughly stick to these do's and dont's 

DO

Only lay/trade horses 6.0 (5/1) or less. 

Concentrate on races with between 8 and 12 runners.

Concentrate on better classes of races, where there is plenty of form. 

Concentrate on midweek racing as opposed to Saturday racing. 

Do consider place trading. 

Look for weak favourites. 

Look where the head of the market is weak.

Use odds comparison from a keenly priced bookmaker and one whose prices are regularly uncompetitive. 

Consider jockey bookings when trading. 

Watch, listen and read commentators, pundits, tipsters, racing press. 

Don't

Don't trade in maidens/bumpers or races where horses are having their first National Hunt run.

Don't trade in claimers or sellers.

Don't trade in big field handicaps where the favourite is 11/2 or above.

Don't lay/trade-in fields with less than 5 runners, and don't take on the favourite in these races. 

Don't lay/trade pre-race in National Hunt races over 3 .5miles. 

I hope you enjoyed this Betfair review of my trading, there is always plenty to learn, you will make mistakes as a Betfair new customer, but like everything the more you know the better you can become.