Cheltenham tips page. See what the profitable tipsters at OLBG are predicting for the races at the Cheltenham Festival. For predictions on all today's racing see our horse racing tips page. For interesting stats, trends and general advice for betting at Cheltenham, read on below our tipster content on this page.
As the Cheltenham festival draws closer, the OLBG members will start sharing their ante-post tips on the races and in turn, they will be added here.
The Champion Hurdle runner-up Sharjah has been out recently to land the Grade 1 Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown, Bob Olinger who won the Ballymore Novices Hurdle has now been switched to fences and was impressive on debut when winning at Gowran Park and it will be interesting to see what his target is for the festival.
The Queen Mother Champion Chase winner, Put The Kettle On has failed to back up that form having since been well beaten in both the Celebration Chase and the Shloer Chase, however, the runner-up, Nube Negra did look impressive when landing the Shloer Chase.
Chantry House has backed up his win in the Marsh Novices Chase, he went to Aintree to land the Mildmay Novices Chase and then on reappearance was a comfortable winner at Sandown albeit in a two-horse race. If there is one race that has disappointed from last year, it's the Stayers race, as of the 24th November 2021, there has been a total of 25 subsequent runs from that field which has produced just 1 win which was 8th place finisher Younevercall in the Select Hurdle.
In terms of the Gold Cup, the winner, Minella Indo ran in the Champion Chase at Down Royal and was well beaten with Frodon winning the race and Galvin a close second, Minella Indo was a further four lengths back. A Plus Tard, the runner-up in the Gold Cup put in one of the most impressive reappearances when landing the Betfair Chase without breaking a sweat!
Course: ('Old' and 'New') Left-handed, undulating, galloping with uphill finish.
The make-up of each is broadly similar in that they are vast, galloping, undulating and left-handed. The last half mile is taken uphill placing emphasis on stamina and, whilst the fences are more forgiving these days, the fourth and third last taken on the side of the course before the turn for home, still catch plenty out.
Willie Mullins is well out in front when it comes to the number of winners at the Cheltenham Festival in the last ten years with fifty-seven winners.
The next best is some twenty-six winners short of him, Nicky Henderson, with 31 winners, whilst just one behind Nicky on 30 is Gordon Elliott, further back on the list is Paul Nicholls with 16 winners.
At the other end of the spectrum, Charlie Longsdon has had 60 runners without recording a single winner and only two placed runners.
Others who have failed to record a win in the last ten years are Fergal O'Brien (38), Evan Williams (36), Richard Newland (33) and Tim Vaughan (31).
Gordon Elliott has an excellent win LSP and his place statistics are good too with 38% of his runners placing for an eachway LSP of +58.16.
Below is a table of how some of the top trainers have fared at the Cheltenham Festival in the last ten years:
|W P Mullins||499-57-157||-62.62||-89.79|
|Henry De Bromhead||123-12-34||+8.35||-8.64|
Both Paul Townend and Davy Russell have notched up seventeen winners over the past ten years and both show healthy profits too, the only other jockey to have hit double figures is Nico de Boinville who has thirteen winners and also shows a profit, in fact, backing those three jockeys over the past ten festivals would have returned a combined LSP of +95.75!
Those who have not fared well and not ridden a winner in the last ten years are Paddy Brennan (64) & Tom O'Brien (52). Another of note who has a poor record is Danny Mullins, from 53 rides in the past ten festivals he has notched up just 1 winner.
If you are looking for profitable jockeys in the place market then Jack Kennedy is one to watch. A 41% place strike rate and an LSP of +46.14 (Betfair Place SP).
Below is a table of how some of the top jockeys have fared at the Cheltenham Festival in the last ten years:
|Nico de Boinville||85-13-25||+26.55||+3.68|
|B J Cooper||99-9-30||-6.62||-11.23|
|Mr J J Codd||31-8-13||+37.50||+19.52|
In this section, we have added some valuable trends and pointers from previous Cheltenham Festivals.
These Cheltenham Festival pointers below will hopefully help narrow down your selection process and shortlist for your Cheltenham best bets...
If you are looking for individual race trends, past winners etc then we have pages set up for each race which you can find over in the Cheltenham Festival blogs section.
The track at Cheltenham is unique in that it has an ‘old course’ and a ‘new course’. The old course is used for the Showcase and November Meetings + the first two days of The Cheltenham Festival.
Many of our tipsters tips for Cheltenham will include an understanding as to whether the horse will perform on the unique course. Some horses can have amazing form but just don't like the characteristics of the horse at Cheltenham.
Horses for Courses is a term that is more significant at Cheltenham than perhaps any other course. Many horses become course specialists and win many times at Cheltenham, some coming back to the festival each year to win or run well in top-class races. So a major Cheltenham tip is to look at horses with proven course form.
The New Course is used for The International, New Year's Day, Festival Trials Day, the 3rd and 4th days of The Cheltenham Festival and the late-season April and May meetings.
The ‘old’ course is said to ride faster, meaning strong-travelling, prominent running types are favoured over hold-up horses or those who take some kidding along.
Type of Racing: National Hunt Only
Highlights: The Cheltenham Festival (March) and ‘The November Meeting’.
TV Channel: Racing TV.
Check out our Best Bookmaker For Live Streaming Guide for alternative live viewing options for watching your Cheltenham best bets.
If you are off to Cheltenham races today then why not download the OLBG app to get all the latest Cheltenham tips at the course.
* All statistics below are based on the previous five years at Cheltenham
Racing has taken place at Prestbury Park since 1831. Now considered the home of National Hunt racing, the Gold Cup was first run as a National Hunt race in 1924. Its iconic modern status wasn’t always as such – the County Hurdle and the National Hunt Chase were the ‘big’ races in the early days.
‘All roads lead to Cheltenham’ is the recognised trend nowadays and whereas the Grand National may still be regarded as the most significant one-off race, the Cheltenham Festival is the target and the climax of the present-day jumps calendar.
Along the way, other significant meetings take place from October and conclude in May with a Hunter Chase evening. After the Cheltenham Festival in March, the November meeting featuring The Paddy Gold Cup (formerly the Mackeson) is the next best in terms of importance and participation.
In recent seasons, the number of Irish-trained Cheltenham winners from the Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott yards have increased hugely. There is also a large number of UK trainers based in or nearby Cheltenham, including Nigel Twiston-Davies, Jonjo O’Neill, Fergal O'Brien and Tom George who are always to be respected. Nigel Twiston-Davies tends to have winners at the October and November meetings, but generally finds winners harder to come by as the season draws on.
As you’d expect, the facilities at Cheltenham are extensive. Viewing the action and the paddock can be challenging at the Festival, although at other meetings it’s excellent. Accommodation and travel arrangements should be planned as far in advance as possible as the town and surrounding routes can get extremely busy. Any challenges aside, the racecourse itself is a must-see, positioned as it is with the beautiful and iconic backdrop of Cleeve Hill. They don’t come much better than the modern-day Cheltenham, whichever way you look at it and the anticipation, buzz and roar from the spectators as the tapes go up for the first race of the Festival meeting is an experience to savour.
Finding winners at Cheltenham is no easy task. The best horses, trainers and jockeys always feature. Consequently, races at all meetings are seldom uncompetitive or lacking in class and depth. To make the challenge slightly easier here are a few general considerations.
Course and distance winners are positive at any meeting, on any given day. At Cheltenham, this is more so and any horse that has proven capable of negotiating the undulations and defying the ‘Cheltenham Hill’ should be kept on the short-list. Look for the letters 'CD' next to a runner on the racecard.
2018 was rare in that the Festival was run on the bog-heavy ground. This was an exception to the norm and typically 'Good' ground features in the going description. If this is the case, look for form in the book on the quicker ground, it is not uncommon for horses to have been running under-par on winter ground only to come into their own in springtime. Whilst not impossible it can be difficult for hold-up horses that do not 'travel' well on the bridle to land a blow at Cheltenham, especially at the Festival where races are usually run at a relentless pace with large field sizes.
Certainly, any horse that travels on and off the bridle, or has a history of unwillingness is probably not going to have the heart or the luck-in-running required to feature at the finish. Horses that can jump and travel fluently in strongly run races with plenty of stamina reserves and the ability to see out the race distance up the Cheltenham hill have the key attributes for Prestbury Park. Be cautious of horses with a history of falls and be careful of Novice Chase events where a lack of experience can prove costly, regardless of class or form over hurdles.
You can view the latest betting odds for each horse in every race at Cheltenham along with comments from OLBG tipsters. You may soon find one particular tipster you like and want to follow!
You’ll notice the number of tips made on each horse, also expressed in % terms and the number of tips made with comments for each one. Our star rating is extremely useful in that it combines the popularity (i.e. how many tips were made) and the latest betting odds.
Once you have chosen your bets, be sure to check out the latest betting offers as betting websites will often have generous Cheltenham offers to encourage people to open a new account in the run-up to or during the Cheltenham festival.
Backing all of the N J Henderson runners would have produced backing the most winners for a trainer here at Cheltenham with fifty-one but you would have returned a loss by doing so, Gordon Elliott leads the way for profitable trainers with an LSP of +70.30 from their thirty-three winners. When looking at trainers and looking for some eachway value at Cheltenham then the trainer who shows the best eachway profit is Emmanuel Clayeux, whose LSP is +26.30 which has been accumulated by a total of seven placings which includes two winners. A total of thirteen winners from two hundred three runners at Cheltenham has P J Hobbs at the wrong end of the trainers' list with their 6% strike rate and worst LSP of -146.62.
Focusing only on jockeys who show a profit when backing all of their rides, top of the pile at Cheltenham for the number of winners is Nico Boinville who has produced a total of twenty-four winners in return for an LSP of +33.37. If you are looking for a jockey to follow in the eachway market then it is Felix De Giles who leads the way at Cheltenham, they have has a total of six placings which includes one winner over the previous five years for an eachway LSP of +22.55. Sam Twiston-Davies does not have a great record at Cheltenham, their LSP of -91.84 has them stone dead bottom of the jockeys' list, which has come from fifteen winners from two hundred twenty-eight rides which is a 7% strike rate.
Here are some factors at Cheltenham for certain trainers or jockeys which have been profitable:
Here are the best trainer and jockey combinations here at Cheltenham based on the number of winners:
|Henry De Bromhead||103-11-25||+19.25||-18.72|
|Miss Kerry Lee||40-6-16||+2.33||-4.10|
|Miss Rebecca Curtis||56-4-9||+37.00||+13.78|
|M J Scudamore||34-4-4||+29.00||+5.68|
|John C McConnell||13-4-5||+28.75||+14.60|
|Patrick G Kelly||8-3-5||+22.50||+10.00|
|P J Brennan||163-20-51||+9.26||-14.08|
|M P Walsh||58-6-13||+3.13||-17.21|
|Mr J J Codd||35-6-15||+14.50||+3.80|
|J W Kennedy||36-5-15||+40.73||+14.69|
The Open at Cheltenham is a three-day festival which takes place in November, starting on Friday it runs through to Sunday.
On Friday which is known as 'Countryside Day', you have the Grade 2 Novices Hurdle and also the Cross Country Chase.
The leading trainers at the open since 2003 are Paul Nicholls (42), Philip Hobbs (30), David Pipe (25) and Nicky Henderson (21).
The top jockeys are Paddy Brennan (17), Tom Scudamore (15) and Sam Twiston-Davies (11).
Outright favourites have a 32% strike rate, in Novice Chases they have a 47% strike rate and in Handicap Novice Hurdles they have a 47% strike rate.
The NHF races do not have a great record for favourites with 16% while runners within the first three odds positions of the market have a 65% strike rate.
Runners who ran at the Cheltenham three day meeting in October last time out have produced 52 winners at this meeting, those who won at that meeting and then came here have a 21% strike rate.
Finally, on a whole last time out winners have won 44% of the races which featured one since 2003.
Experts are OLBG tipsters with high strike rates, current month or 6 month profitability for a particular sport