Stanley Cup Playoffs 2023: Eastern Conference Up For Grabs After Bruins' Collapse

Four NHL teams now remain in the Eastern Conference and the bracket is looking a lot different than most likely expected. The three-time defending Eastern Conference champions and twice Cup champions the Tampa Bay Lightning were sent packing in six games by the Maple Leafs while the Boston Bruins, who just two weeks ago set the NHL’s all-time regular season wins and points record, blew a 3-1 series lead against the Florida Panthers to complete the biggest choke job in NHL history. That’s the beauty of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, anything is possible, and if round two is anything like round one, you won’t want to miss a single game. Let’s take a look at the two Eastern Conference Semifinal matchups. 

Toronto Leafs vs. Florida Panthers

In what has been 19 years in the making, Toronto finally has a round two series to look forward to as they hold home-ice advantage over the Florida Panthers.

This has all the makings of a highly exciting and offensive battle as each team has superstar talent up front, lingering question marks in the net, and defensemen who can move the puck and aren’t afraid to jump into the rush. In what is a byproduct of these assessments, both Toronto and Florida finished in the top 10 of goals per game over the course of the regular season with the Maple Leafs at 3.39 (ninth in the league) and the Panthers at 3.51 (sixth in the league). 

Both of these teams have deep forward cores and spread the wealth by playing their best players on different lines. For the Leafs, Matthews is expected to center William Nylander and Matthew Knies, while Mitch Marner will be on John Tavares’ wing along with Calle Jarnkrok. On the other side, Aleksander Barkov will be between Anthony Duclair and Carter Verhaeghe as they will likely draw the Matthews matchup to begin with. The physical and skilled Panthers line of Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett, and Nick Cousins will then look to wreak havoc in the offensive zone. Each team's third lines were quite effective in round one and it will be interesting to see how they are used in order to free up some less challenging matchups for the top guys. 

Goaltending is likely going to be the deciding factor in who ultimately wins this series. Both teams received decent play from their netminders in round one but question marks still loom. For the Leafs, Ilya Samsonov was amazing in game six but was fairly average prior to that, having given up 18 goals from games one through five. There is also the concern of fatigue as Samsonov started every game in round one and with Joseph Woll as the backup he looks likely to do the same in round two. The Panthers are in a slightly different position as they have multiple viable options yet neither was particularly impressive in round one. Alex Lyon started games one through three, giving up 3.00 goals per game and falling behind 2-1 in the series. Sergei Bobrovsky then got the nod for game’s four through seven and after losing game four he rattled off three consecutive wins though has not been exceptional having given up 16 goals in that time. 

Brandon Montour versus Morgan Reilly will also be an interesting matchup to watch. Each are skilled, puck-moving defenseman who do a good job at joining rushes and quarterbacking their respective power plays. Montour had five goals and eight points in round one while Reilly had three goals and eight points. Whichever offensive defenseman is able to offer the better looks to their skill players up front and run their power play successfully will be leaving their team with a quality chance at winning the series. 

The Maple Leafs are currently sitting as -200 favorites with the Panthers up at +170 at most sportsbooks. The Leafs dominated the Panthers in the regular season holding a 3-0-1 record and after getting the proverbial monkey off their backs in round one, I think the Maple Leafs play like the dominant regular season team they have been over the past few years and handle Florida in six games. 

Carolina Hurricanes vs. New Jersey Devils 

The East’s other second-round series sees the Metropolitan champion Carolina Hurricanes face off against the division runner-up New Jersey Devils. 

This series is a classic example of a high-powered offense meeting a stifling defense. Throughout the regular season, Carolina allowed just 2.56 goals per game which was good for second in the NHL. The Devils on the other hand scored 3.52 goals per game which is a mark that left them tied for fourth in the league. The outcome of the series may come down to who can play on their terms for the majority of the games. If a breakneck, run-and-gun style of game is played then the advantage goes to the Devils, if the Hurricanes can slow the game down with board play and structure, then they will have the advantage. 

These two rivals met four times in the regular season having split the games two a piece with the Hurricanes winning the first two and the Devils winning the last two. The current iterations of these teams are much different than those we saw in the regular season with injuries and goalie woes causing each lineup to change significantly. 

Carolina may be experiencing some of the worst injury luck in an NHL season in history this year as they were already without both Max Pacioretty and Andrei Svechnikov before Teuvo Teravainen was slashed across the hands in game two of round one and suffered a broken hand. This leaves Carolina very thin and vulnerable up front. They will have to lean even more heavily on their defensive play and keep these games low scoring to have a chance. 

The Devils are in the midst of an injury scare themselves as Timo Meier was leveled by Jacob Trouba in game seven of their first-round series and had to be helped off the ice in a daze. He did return to the bench later in the game but did not play a shift. New Jersey is keeping updates surrounding his health in-house but after seeing the hit I’d be shocked if he didn’t miss at least a couple of games.

The goaltender battle is an interesting one in this series as I wouldn’t be surprised if four goalies factored in. For Carolina, Antti Raanta started the first five games of round one and was fairly average before Frederik Andersen was given the nod for game six and stopped 33 of 34 shots en route to the series win. Both are expected to have their chances in round two. For New Jersey, their starter for most of the year Vitek Vanecek struggled mightily in games one and two causing the Devils to turn to 22-year-old rookie Akira Schmid who was exceptional. Schmid won four of five games with two shutouts and just seven total goals given up. Schmid will be option one for the Devils in this series but should he struggle or appear to get tired with the unprecedented workload, they won’t hesitate to turn back to Vanecek in relief. 

The Devils are the slight favorites here at -135 while the Hurricanes sit at +115 at most sportsbooks. With the Hurricanes depleting injuries on the front end and New Jersey’s top-end speed and talent I just don’t think Carolina can keep up with the Devils game in and game out. This may be a bit of a hot take but I like the Devils in five.