Tony Finau Is The Favorite To Defend His Title At The Rocket Mortgage Classic

In 2019, the Rocket Mortgage Classic debuted as the first PGA Tour event in history to be held entirely within the city limits of Detroit, Michigan. In three of the previous four editions, the winner has been victorious by at least three strokes, including Tony Finau winning by five over Patrick Cantlay, Taylor Pendrith, and Cameron Young last year. The event’s history of large margins of victory creates an interesting backdrop for this week’s competition, which, for the first time this calendar year, does not include a single golfer with pre-tournament implied odds to win of at least 10 percent. Given the current odds being offered by sportsbooks, only five golfers have at least a five percent chance to win. The field includes just five of the top 20 ranked golfers in the world, and the winner will receive 500 FedExCup points.

The Rocket Mortgage Classic Odds

Entering the 2022 3M Open last July, Tony Finau had two PGA Tour victories in 211 career starts. Finau won that event at TPC Twin Cities in Minnesota by three strokes over Emiliano Grillo and Sungjae Im and proceeded to win the next week at the 2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic by five strokes setting the 72-hole course record (262) in the process and becoming the first Tour player to win consecutive Regular Season events in three years. The 33-year-old American has four victories in his previous 23 PGA Tour starts and is one of only six men’s golfers with multiple wins on Tour this season, joining Jon Rahm (four) and Scottie Scheffler, Max Homa, Keegan Bradley and Wyndham Clark (two each). In addition to his two wins (Texas Children's Houston Open and Mexico Open at Vidanta), Finau has four top 10s and 11 top 25s this season. At No. 8 in the FedExCup Playoffs points list and No. 14 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), Finau ranks in the top 10 on Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (1.606; fourth), Approach to Green (0.866, sixth) and Total (1.605; 10th), as well as Scoring Average (69.38; eighth) and Greens in Regulation Percentage (69.10%; 10th). While his ball striking has been good this season, Finau has struggled with the putter a bit in recent months, ranking just 101st on Tour in Strokes Gained Putting (-0.001). Nevertheless, at +1200, the defending champion is the betting favorite this week with implied odds to repeat at slightly less than eight percent.

Since turning professional in 2009, Rickie Fowler has played in more than 300 career PGA Tour events. He has made the cut in more than 76 percent of his starts, and has 81 career top 10s, eight third places finishes, 15 runner up showings and has won five times on Tour – his most notable victory being THE PLAYERS Championship in 2015. Fowler has made nearly $47M in his career and was ranked has high as No. 4 in the OWGR in 2016. However, in the three seasons prior to 2022-23, Fowler had registered only four top 10s while missing the cut in 40 percent of the events he started, falling as low as No. 185 in the OWGR. However, with seven top 10s (his most since the 2016-17 season), including a runner-up at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, 14 top 25s (his most since the 2017-18 season), and his first 54-hole lead during a major championship earlier this month at the U.S. Open at The Los Angeles Country Club (North Course), this season is proving to be a renaissance for the 34-year-old American. Fowler is currently ranked No. 17 in the FedExCup Playoffs points list and No. 35 in the OWGR. He is also ranked in the top 10 on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach to Green (0.745; seventh) and Total (1.634 ninth) as well as Scoring Average (69.54; ninth). At +1400, Fowler is tied for the second-best odds to snap his four-year winless drought.

Tony Finau is the betting favorite this week with Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas (+1400), and Collin Morikawa (+1400) having the second-best odds and Max Homa (+1800) rounding out the group assigned at least a five percent chance to win.

This is my final golf preview for OLBG. I would like to thank Michael Calabrese and Richard Moffat for the opportunity, but more importantly, I would like thank you – the reader, without whom none of this would have been possible – for supporting my work these past six months. I have enjoyed chronicling the on-course storylines of the PGA Tour and am hopeful that the enterprise will find new leadership that can chart a path forward with integrity while maintaining the unrivaled competitive excellence that has made the Tour the world’s premier home of men’s professional golf for more than half a century.