Stanley Cup 2023: New Conn Smythe Favorite, Canes Now +250 To Win It All

With round two of the NHL Playoffs now well underway, the futures market for which team is going to lift the Stanley Cup has once again seen drastic changes. Certain teams have thoroughly impressed, building on the momentum they gained in the first round, while others have fallen into large series deficits as their dreams of winning it all this season are slowly dwindling. 

The biggest change from last week has been the crumbling of the Toronto Maple Leafs. After sitting with the second-best odds to win it all at +525 following their series win over Tampa, the Leafs have imploded in round two and now find themselves in a 3-0 series deficit to the Florida Panthers. Just four teams in NHL history have come back to win a series after losing the first three games which is reflected in Toronto’s odds, now all the way up to +2500. 

2023 Stanley Cup Champion

Team	Moneyline	Probability
Carolina Hurricanes	+250	28.57%
Florida Panthers	+400	20%
Vegas Golden Knights	+450	18.18%
Edmonton Oilers	+500	16.67%
Dallas Stars	+600	14.29%
Seattle Kraken	+1600	5.88%
New Jersey Devils	+2000	4.76%
Toronto Maple Leafs	+2500	3.85%

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Meanwhile, the Panthers, the team that has pushed Toronto to the brink of elimination now occupy the second spot on the futures board. As a virtual lock to make the Conference Finals the Florida Panthers are now at +400 to win it all. Should they complete the sweep tonight and in the process extend their win streak to seven games, this number may only move lower in the coming days. 

Above them are the Carolina Hurricanes who despite terrible injury luck find themselves with a 3-1 series lead over the Devils and at +250 to lift the Cup. Following the Hurricanes’ game four victory the Devils sportsbook odds quickly ballooned all the way to +2000.

The Golden Knights and Oilers are at +450 and +500 respectively as their series currently stands 2-1 in favor of Vegas. 

The Kraken and Stars are tied in their series but their odds to win it all are quite different as Dallas sits at +600 while the Kraken are at +1600. 

Conn Smythe Odds

The changes in Cup odds have also inevitably shaken up the odds for the winner of the Conn Smythe Trophy. 

Most notably, Matthew Tkakuck has jumped into the top spot now having +650 odds to hold the trophy. With 15 points in 10 games along with being a daunting physical presence and having his team on the brink of the Conference Finals, he is more than deserving of the top spot. 

Familiar names round out the top three as despite being down 2-1 in their series, both Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid are sitting at +900. Draisaitl has made up a good chunk of ground on his running mate as last week McDavid was at +550 while Draisaitl was up at +1000. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that Leon’s absurd four-goal Game One and 13 tallies overall have something to do with this. 

On the other side of that series, Vegas has two players of their own who have entered the Conn Smythe picture. Following his dominant three-point game three, Jack Eichel moved into the top five with +1000 odds, and just on the outside looking in is Mark Stone at +1200. 

Carolina’s star centerman Sebastian Aho also saw his stock rise, popping into fourth place with lower odds as his team is on the cusp of the Conference Finals. With 10 points in as many games, he has quietly been leading his Hurricanes through their opposition.  

Sergei Bobrovsky is the highest-ranked goaltender on the list with +1600 odds. He has seemingly hit the rewind button on his career and recaptured his Vezina form during this series against the Maple Leafs allowing just two goals in each game and riding a six-game win streak. 

Updated Series Odds

At around the halfway point of each series, a couple have remained almost neck and neck while the other two have understandably skewed heavily in favor of the leading teams. 

With Vegas holding a 2-1 lead going into Game Four in Edmonton, this series is about as close as they come. However, by way of being a game up, the Golden Knights are slight favorites at -140. As they were following their loss in game one, the Oilers are once again slight underdogs at +120. The always pivotal Game Four will be the deciding factor on where the odds move from here as should Vegas head home up 3-1 they will join the group of monumental favorites whereas if the Oilers tie it up, they will likely find themselves with a slight edge according to oddsmakers. 

The only series that is currently even at two games apiece is the Stars against the Kraken. Although they are knotted up at two, Dallas is still a substantial favorite at -210 while the Kraken are at +175.   

As I have mentioned a couple of times before, the Florida Panthers lead the Toronto Maple Leafs three games to none. This of course leads them to being massive -900 favorites to win the series. The Maple Leafs are on the other end of that spectrum as huge underdogs with their likelihood of winning the series at +600. This number should honestly be higher for the Leafs and is probably a reflection of delusional Leaf fans backing their team and skewing the market. 

The Carolina Hurricanes are also overwhelming favorites to move on from their series with odds at -700. After crushing the Devils 6-1 in Game Four, oddsmakers finally seem to be giving the Hurricanes the respect they deserve. As for the Devils, well they are now +500 underdogs and face a daunting task ahead of them should they wish to reward anyone daring enough to bet on them. 

Prop Bet Market: Division of Cup Winner

The NHL consists of four divisions. As it is still just the second round, each division is still represented, but not equally. As such, the odds for which division will see a team from within hoist the Stanley Cup vary greatly. 

Once thought to be the weakest in the league, the Pacific division is the only one with three teams in the second round. As such, the odds are currently +110 for a team from the Pacific to win it all. Vegas and Edmonton are both seen as top contenders for the cup so the guarantee of one of them in the Conference Finals is certainly a reason for the division’s odds. However, their biggest advantage is that they have a real shot at an all-Pacific Western Conference Final. With Seattle on the other side of the West bracket currently, in the midst of a tight series against the Stars, the Pacific is the only group to have a chance at an intra-division Conference Final, meaning an automatic Stanley Cup Finals berth.

Both the Atlantic and Metropolitan have two teams in the second round, but with each team playing the other, can only have one in the Conference Final. And with both the Florida vs. Toronto and Carolina vs. New Jersey Series heavily tilted in one direction, we all have a pretty good idea of who the teams moving on will be. Because of this, the odds here are similar to what we saw in the Stanley Cup futures section with Carolina and the Metropolitan holding slightly better odds than Florida and the Atlantic. The Metro is sitting at +210 while the Atlantic slots in behind them at +275. 

Bringing up the rear and lagging quite far behind is the Central Division. At +900 they are the only Division that saw just one team progress from round one as all of their hopes now lie with the Dallas Stars.