Stanley Cup 2023: Conn Smythe Market Turned On Its Head, Connor McDavid Now +550 To Win

We are on to round number two, meaning just eight teams remain in the hunt for the Stanley Cup. In a hectic first round, we saw the Boston Bruins, who had been the odds-on favorite to win it all for the past four months, lose in seven games. In addition, the defending champion Avalanche who had come into the playoffs with the second-best odds to win the Stanley Cup, fell to the Seattle Kraken.

2023 Stanley Cup Champion

Team	Moneyline	Probability
Edmonton Oilers	+380	20.83%
Toronto Maple Leafs	+525	16%
New Jersey Devils	+550	15.38%
Florida Panthers	+575	14.81%
Vegas Golden Knights	+600	14.29%
Carolina Hurricanes	+650	13.33%
Dallas Stars	+750	11.76%
Seattle Kraken	+850	10.53%

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The new frontrunner for Lord Stanley is the Edmonton Oilers at +380. The Oilers took care of the Los Angeles Kings in six games and now look to fend off the Vegas Golden Knights en route to a second straight Western Conference Final berth. With two of the best players on the planet in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl playing at the top of their game, the Oilers certainly aren’t a bad bet. 

At +525, the Toronto Maple Leafs are in the second spot despite falling behind 1-0 in their second-round series. The Leafs were finally able to exercise their first-round demons and now look towards the goal of the franchise's first Stanley Cup since 1967, something it appears the bookmakers see as very possible. 

Just a tick behind them in the eyes of sportsbooks is the New Jersey Devils at +550. Coming off of a phenomenal game seven performance against the Rangers, the Devils look like one of the fastest teams remaining.

The Florida Panthers come in next at +575. After falling behind 3-1 in their opening series against Boston just one week ago they were all the way up in +10000 territory. Now, after completing one of the biggest upsets in the history of sports and taking game one from the Leafs, they are finally getting the respect they clearly deserve.  

Rounding out the top five are the Vegas Golden Knights at +600. Following them are the Hurricanes, Stars, and Kraken at +650, +750, and +850 respectively.

Series Winner Odds

With the second round underway, we’ve got a whole new set of series, meaning a whole new set of odds to dissect. With two of the four Conference Semifinal matchups having already begun, the odds for those series’ have already substantially shaken up.

Speaking of, with their game one victory over Toronto last night, the Panthers now find themselves at -110 from the +170 they sat at prior to the game. The Maple Leafs, who were tied for the best odds to win their second-round series out of all of the remaining teams at -200, also find themselves at -110. Game two in Toronto will be a huge deciding factor in where the odds go from here. Should Florida win and go up 2-0, look for them to be in the range of -350, whereas if the Leafs square up the series, they will likely find themselves back in the driver's seat at around -150. 

Like the Maple Leafs, the Stars were -200 favorites heading into game one yesterday but fell to the Seattle Kraken. Dallas is still favored, but ever so slightly at -115 while the Kraken moved from +170 to -105. 

Heading into game one tonight, despite having the Pacific division’s best regular season record, the Vegas Golden Knights are +135 underdogs against the bookmaker’s sweetheart Edmonton Oilers who are at -155 to win the series. 

Carolina and New Jersey are the biggest coin flip this round according to the oddsmakers. The young Devils are slight favorites over their Metropolitan counterparts at -135. The Hurricanes, having won the Metropolitan division, find themselves as +115 underdogs likely due to the breadth of injuries they have sustained. 

Conn Smythe Odds

The odds for the Conn Smythe Trophy winner have changed drastically since last week. Three of the top four in terms of odds from last week now find themselves eliminated from the playoffs of course meaning they no longer have a chance to win. These absences left room for some new names amongst the top five. 

Coming in the first spot and standing as quite a substantial favorite is Connor McDavid. Sitting at +550 the world’s best player will look to cement his legacy with a Stanley Cup and subsequent Conn Smythe Trophy. 

His closest competition as of now? His teammate Leon Draisaitl. Draisaitl was the better of the two in round one and at +1000 could provide some value as if he continues producing gaudy point totals and the Oilers keep winning he will have a strong case. 

Jumping into third at +1200 is Florida’s Matthew Tkachuk. In his first season with the Panthers he ascended to superstardom and has backed up his regular season play with 14 points in eight playoff games thus far. If the Panthers hope to keep this Cinderella run going, Tkachuk will be the catalyst. 

Auston Matthews is now sitting in fourth with +1400 odds. Should the Leafs go on to win it all as many think they could, who takes home the extra hardware will likely be between him and teammate Mitch Marner who is sitting at +1600. 

Tied with Matthews at +1400 and the most surprising name on this list is Devils goaltender Akira Schmid. The 22 year old rookie was thrust into the opening series after Vitek Vanecek struggled in games one and two. In his five games played, Schmid went four and one with two shutouts and just seven total goals given up. That level of play is unsustainable, but if he can even play close to that, and the Devils keep winning, he will certainly have a chance. 

Most points in each series 

With the second round just getting underway, it’s a chance for us to restart the proverbial playoff leaderboards and view this round on its own. Series by series the oddsmakers have been kind enough to make odds for who will score the most points in each. Let's take a look. 

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs

After a three-point game one Matthew Tkachuk is the favorite at +150. Teammate Aleksander Barkov registered two points of his own in game one and finds himself second at +300. Just behind him at +350 is Auston Matthews who will need to be better offensively for the Leafs to win the series. The same goes for Mitch Marner who was kept off the scoresheet in game one. At +800, Marner is a solid value bet after a 99-point regular season and 11-point round one. 

Stars vs. Kraken

Joe Pavelski has understandably built a sizeable gap as the favorite following his four-goal game one. However, there are lots of games remaining and at -180 I don’t see the value in picking him. Jason Robertson is down at +1000 and after a breakout 109-point regular season, I could certainly see him exploding at some point in this series. 

Devils vs. Hurricanes

Jack Hughes is the favorite to lead this series in points at +250 and I think that is the smartest bet. In round one, the numbers weren’t quite there with just five points but he was a dominant offensive presence and could have easily had that number doubled had a few bounces gone his way. Sebastian Aho sits at +350 and for the Hurricanes to have a chance in this series he will have to be at the very top of his game, meaning scoring lots of points and making himself a potentially solid play.

Oilers vs. Golden Knights

Only two players are really worth mentioning here, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. McDavid is the favorite at -150 while Draisaitl sits at +180. To me, who scores more points is somewhat of a coin flip so I like Draisaitl and the increased odds but you can’t go wrong with either.