Scottie Scheffler Is Favorite To Win The Memorial Tournament At +600

Jack Nicklaus is widely regarded as one of if not the greatest men’s golfers of all time. The Golden Bear’s 18 career major championships are most all-time and his 73 career PGA TOUR victories trail only Tiger Woods and Sam Snead (82). Given Nicklaus’ legendary status in professional golf, his event – the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday hosted at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio – is one of the most anticipated on Tour each year outside of the majors. The 11th of 17 Designated PGA TOUR events in the 2022-23 season, the Memorial offers a $20M purse and, to the winner, 550 FedExCup points. With so much at stake, 16 of the top 20 players in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) are in the field. Given the current odds being offered by sportsbooks, only five golfers have at least a five percent chance to win.

The Memorial Tournament

Of the 18 previous golf previews I have written since January, Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm have both been featured in 12 – three more than Rory McIlroy and eight more than any other golfer. Currently ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in the OWGR and No. 2 and No. 1, respectively, in the FedExCup Playoff standings, Scheffler and Rahm have dominated the headlines of the 2022-23 PGA Tour season. And this week’s Memorial Tournament is no exception with Scheffler (+600) listed as the favorite and Rahm (+700) not far behind.

Scottie Scheffler won the 2022 PGA Tour Player of the Year after amassing four wins (including the Masters Tournament), four runner-ups (including the U.S. Open and Tour Championship), 11 tops 10s, 18 top 25s and four missed cuts in 25 events played. Through 15 events played this season, the 26-year-old American has two wins (WM Phoenix Open and The Players Championship) and one runner-up (PGA Championship). Scheffler has yet to miss a cut and has already matched last season’s top 10 tally (11). The last time he failed to finish in the top 12 of a PGA Tour event was his very first start of the season at THE CJ CUP in South Carolina in October. Scheffler currently ranks first on Tour in total strokes gained (2.501), strokes gained off the tee (1.107), strokes gained tee-to-green (2.567), greens in regulation percentage (74.11%), and scoring average (68.20). He also ranks in the top 10 in strokes gained approach to green (1.071; 2nd), total driving (44; 2nd) and scrambling (66.28%; 6th). In addition to his outstanding play this season, Scheffler has played well in this event in years past – finishing T22 in 2020 and third in 2021. However, it must be noted that the pressure to win again is building as comparisons are starting to be made to last season and Scheffler’s failure to win a PGA Tour event after the calendar turned to May. A win at Muirfield this week would halt any discussions about Scheffler not being able to continue his winning ways deeper into the season.

For as good as Scheffler’s season has been, Jon Rahm’s has been even better. The 28-year-old Spaniard has four wins (twice as many as any other men’s golfer on Tour), including the Masters Tournament, his second career major victory. In addition to winning at Augusta, Rahm also won two other Designated events – the Sentry Tournament of Champions and The Genesis Invitational – and The American Express. He was the runner-up at the Mexico Open and has already equaled his top 10 tally from last season (8). Rahm currently ranks in the top 10 on Tour in scoring average (68.27; 2nd), total strokes gained (2.422; 2nd), greens in regulation percentage (72.35%; 3rd), strokes gained approach to green (0.976; 3rd), proximity (35’ 2; 6th), strokes gained putting (0.681; 7th) and total driving (85; 7th). Additionally, Rahm’s last three performances at the Memorial have been very strong, winning in 2020, leading by six strokes in 2021 before testing positive for COVID-19 and being forced to withdraw and T10 last year. With a win this week, Rahm will become just the eighth men’s golfer to win the Memorial at least twice.

As has been the case all season when they enter an event, Scheffler and Rahm are the clear favorites this week, but two-time event winner Patrick Cantlay (+1000) and Rory McIlroy (+1200) are included in the next tier of contenders.

There are only two men’s golfers who have won the Memorial Tournament more than twice: five-time winner, Tiger Woods, and three-time winner, Kenny Perry. Patrick Cantlay has the opportunity to join that list this week, having won in 2019 and being the primary benefactor of Rahm’s withdrawal in 2021. The 31-year-old American has five top 5s this season, including a runner-up finish at the Shriners Children’s Open, and is currently ranked No. 4 in the OWGR and No. 6 in the FedExCup Playoff standings. Additionally, Cantlay ranks in the top 5 on Tour in strokes gained off the tee (0.968; 2nd), scoring average (68.88; 3rd), total strokes gained (2.056; 4th) and greens in regulation percentage (70.50%; 5th).