Scottie Scheffler Is The Favorite To Win The 2023 U.S. Open

For the past week, events off the course have dominated the men’s golf headlines. However, the focus shifts squarely back to on-course competition this week as the third major championship of the year gets underway with the playing of the 123rd U.S. Open at The Los Angeles Country Club (North Course), marking the first time the event is being contested by a first-time venue since Erin Hills (Wisconsin) hosted in 2017. As is the case for every major championship, the field is loaded with the game’s best, so competition will be fierce for a coveted major championship victory. Given the current odds being offered by sportsbooks, only three golfers have at least a double-digit chance to win the iconic U.S. Open Championship Trophy.

The U.S. Open

Currently ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) and No. 2 and No. 1, respectively, in the FedExCup Playoff standings, Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm have been the headliners in nearly every event they have entered this season. The U.S. Open – even with inclusion of non-Tour players in the field – is no exception as Scheffler (+650) is listed as the favorite with Rahm (+800) not far behind.

On the heels of winning 2022 PGA Tour Player of the Year, a season that included a T2 finish at the U.S. Open, Scottie Scheffler is having one of the most consistent seasons in recent memory compiling 15 consecutive top 12 finishes. Included in that streak, the 26-year-old American has two Designated event wins (defending his title at the WM Phoenix Open and THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass), one runner-up (PGA Championship), 12 top 10s, 15 top 25s and no missed cuts. The biggest factor in Scheffler’s consistency has been his ball-striking, currently ranking first on Tour in Strokes Gained: Total (2.544), Off-the-Tee (1.096), Tee-to-Green (2.775), and Approach the Green (1.207). Also ranking first in Greens in Regulation Percentage (73.89%), Scheffler has the best Scoring Average (68.35) on Tour this season. However, the one area of Scheffler’s game that has been less than specular, especially in recent weeks, is his putting; ranking 148th in Strokes Gained Putting (-0.231) and 153rd in One-Putt Percentage (38.43%). Additionally, the whispers are beginning to grow louder regarding Scheffler’s ability – or lack thereof – to win late in the season. In 2022, Scheffler had four wins by the end of April and did not win again the rest of the year. This season, both of Scheffler’s wins occurred before the end of March. A win this week at The Los Angeles Country Club would put an end to that narrative.

For as great as Scottie Scheffler has been this season, Jon Rahm’s résumé is even better. The 28-year-old Spaniard has four wins – (twice as many as any other men’s golfer on Tour – including the Masters Tournament, his second career major victory. In addition to winning at Augusta, Rahm also won two other Designated events – the Sentry Tournament of Champions and The Genesis Invitational – and The American Express. His three wins in January and February marked the first time a men’s golfer registered three wins on Tour in a calendar year prior to March since Johnny Miller accomplished the feat in 1975. Rahm also has one runner-up (Mexico Open at Vidanta), eight top 10s and 10 top 25s in 14 events played. However, Rahm has played just twice since the end of April: registering a T50 finish at the PGA Championship in May and a T16 finish at Memorial Tournament presented by Workday earlier this month. Nevertheless, Rahm currently ranks in the top 10 on Tour in Strokes Gained: Total (2.338; 2nd), Tee-to-Green (1.847; 3rd) and Approach the Green (1.062; 3rd) as well as Scoring Average (68.57; 2nd), Putting Average (1.689; 2nd), Greens in Regulation Percentage (71.77%; 3rd) and Proximity (34’ 11; 6th). Last year, Rahm finished T12 at the U.S. Open. His best career finish in the event is a T3 performance in 2019. A win this week at The Los Angeles Country Club would mark the 12th victory of his PGA Tour career – breaking a tie with Sergio Garcia for the most wins by a Spanish-born player – and third career major championship, which would be the second-most all-time for a Spanish-born player behind only Seve Ballesteros’ five.

As has been the case all season when they enter an event, Scheffler and Rahm are the clear favorites this week, but Viktor Hovland (+1000), Rory McIlroy (+1100), Patrick Cantlay (+1400), Max Homa (+1600) and Xander Schauffele (+1800) all have at least a five percent chance to win as well.

I have featured Scheffler and Rahm in 65 percent of the previews I have written this season – more than three times as many as any other golfer not named Rory McIlroy. Interestingly, though, despite having a really solid season to date, I have yet to include Viktor Hovland in a preview. However, that changes this week, as the 25-year-old Norwegian is in excellent form in major championships recently: finishing T4 at The 2022 Open Championship, T7 in this year’s Masters Tournament, and T2 in last month’s PGA Championship. Additionally, in his most recent start, Hovland collected his first official win of the PGA Tour season, a playoff victory against Denny McCarthy at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, OH. He also has a runner-up at the PGA Championship, seven top 10s, 12 top 25s and zero missed cuts in 16 official PGA Tour events played this season. Hovland is currently No. 5 in the OWGR and No. 4 in the FedExCup Playoff standings. At +1000, oddsmakers are assigning nearly a 10 percent chance that Hovland breaks through and wins this first career major championship at The Los Angeles Country Club this week.