Rory McIlroy Seeks A Three-Peat At The RBC Canadian Open

Amid the constantly evolving men’s professional golf landscape, the PGA TOUR schedule features the third oldest continuously running tournament this week: the RBC Canadian Open. First played in 1904, the Canadian national open has been played annually with exceptions being made only for World War I, World War II, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Only The Open Championship and the U.S. Open have a more extensive history. However, with many of the world’s best golfers resting in preparation for next week’s U.S. Open, only ten of the top 30 players in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) are in the field at Oakdale Golf & Country Club in Toronto this week. Given the current odds being offered by sportsbooks, only half a dozen golfers have at least a five percent chance to win.

The RBC Canadian Open

Of the eight PGA Tour events Rory McIlroy has played in 2023, he has been the favorite or co-favorite in three – the WM Phoenix Open, The Players Championship, and the Wells Fargo Championship – and has never had worse than the third-best pre-event odds to win. In the five events in which McIlroy was not the favorite, the 34-year-old Northern Irishman’s odds to win were only worse than Jon Rahm’s and/or Scottie Scheffler’s. With neither Rahm nor Scheffler in the field this week, McIlroy, who returns to action for the first time since a T7 finish at the PGA Championship, is once again the overwhelming favorite at +450. Even with one win (THE CJ CUP in South Carolina), one runner-up (Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard), and four top 10s, this season has been somewhat disappointing for the OWGR No. 3, as he once again failed to complete the career grand slam missing the cut at Augusta National. McIlroy ranks a lowly 112th on Tour in scrambling (59.24%), 144th in strokes gained putting (-0.238), 154th in greens in regulation percentage (63.49%), and 189th in driving accuracy (49.49%). However, McIlroy is still No. 13 in the FedExCup points standings, and with a win this week, the two-time defending champion (2022 and 2019) would become the first golfer to win the Canadian Open on three consecutive occasions (the event was canceled in 2020 and 2021). Furthermore, a win would also make McIlroy just the fifth to win the event at least three times, joining Leo Diegel (1924, 1925, 1928 and 1929), Tommy Armour (1927, 1930 and 1934), Sam Snead (1938, 1940 and 1941) and Lee Trevino (1971, 1977 and 1979). At +450, oddsmakers are assigning nearly a one in five chance that McIlroy becomes just the fifth golfer with multiple wins on Tour this season [Rahm (4), Scheffler (2), Max Homa (2) and Tony Finau (2)].

The previous three times I have written about Tyrrell Hatton this season were the week prior to The Players Championship (often referred to as the fifth major; finished second), the week prior to the Masters Tournament (finished T34) and the week prior to the PGA Championship (finished T15). At +1200, the 31-year-old Englishman is once again among the favorites in the next pre-major championship tune-up. In 14 PGA Tour events played this season, Hatton has registered nine top 25s and five top 10s. Currently ranked No. 16 in both the OWGR and the FedExCup points standings, Hatton ranks in the top 15 on TOUR in total strokes gained (2.033; 3rd), scoring average (69.60; 10th), strokes gained off the tee (0.650; 11th), strokes gained putting (0.597; 11th) and scrambling (65.05%; 13th). Despite having only played in this event once before (2022; missed cut), Hatton’s strong performances, when healthy, in the week prior to major championships should be considered.

McIlroy is the clear betting favorite this week and Hatton is the only other golfer assigned at least a seven percent chance to win. However, Canada’s native son, Corey Conners (+2000) is in the next group of contenders and seeks to become the first Canadian to win the national open since Pat Fletcher in 1954.

In 16 PGA Tour events played this season, Corey Conners has registered one win (the Valero Texas Open; his second time winning that event and his second career Tour victory), two top 10s, and nine top 25s en route to a No. 29 OWGR and No. 27 ranking in the FedExCup points standings. Conners currently ranks in the top 25 on TOUR in greens in regulation percentage (68.91%; 11th), strokes gained approach to green (0.559; 21st), strokes gained off the tee (0.453; 22nd) and total strokes gained (0.911; 25th). While the 31-year-old Canadian has missed the cut in five of his previous seven starts in this event, he finished sixth last year, and will have the hopes of the nation on his shoulders in Toronto this week, along with compatriots Adam Hadwin (+3500), Adam Svensson (+5500), Nick Taylor (+7000), Mackenzie Hughes (+7500) and Taylor Pendrith (+8000).