NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs 2023: A Vegas-Florida Stanley Cup Has Defied The Odds

With each of the Conference Finals getting off to extremely lopsided 3-0 leads, a Stanley Cup Finals matchup between the Florida Panthers and Vegas Golden Knights is all but inevitable. Because of this, those two teams have seen their Cup odds trend heavily in a positive direction while their opponent's odds have inevitably plummeted as they both look to pull off what would be nothing short of a miracle. 

The Vegas Golden Knights are currently the clubhouse leaders and are officially the first team all season to see their odds at the Cup dip into the negatives as they are sitting at -125. Given how they’ve gotten to the point they’re at now, having dropped just three games all postseason, it is no surprise to see them as Cup favorites.  

Sliding in just behind the Golden Knights is their likely opponent in the Stanley Cup Finals the Florida Panthers. At +125 the margin between the two teams is understandably razor-thin. The Panthers have been dominant in their own right on their way to what is looking like an Eastern Conference Title having now won 10 of their last 11 games after falling behind 3-1 to the Bruins in round one. 

All the way down at +2200 sit both the Dallas Stars and Carolina Hurricanes. Both down 3-0 in their respective series, the future is looking bleak for them. Only four teams have ever come back to win a series after falling behind 3-0 and none have done so in the Conference Finals. So, however unlikely, technically, they have a chance. 

Conn Smythe Odds

The Conn Smythe Trophy winner market is essentially now down to representatives from only Florida and Vegas. There are two members of each of these teams who have somewhat pulled away from the pack as favorites to win the award while there are still other solid options lurking behind them with some tantalizing odds from sportsbooks.

Who Will Win The Stanley Cup Playoffs MVP?

Player	Moneyline	Probability
Sergei Bobrovsky, Panthers	+200	33.33%
Jack Eichel, Golden Knights	+400	20%
Matthew Tkachuk, Panthers	+400	20%
Mark Stone, Golden Knights	+550	15.38%
Jonathan Marchessault, Golden Knights	+1400	6.67%
Adin Hill, Golden Knights	+1600	5.88%
Chandler Stephenson, Golden Knights	+2000	4.76%
Alex Pietrangelo, Golden Knights	+2500	3.85%
William Karlsson, Golden Knights	+2500	3.85%
Roope Hintz, Stars	+5000	1.96%
Jake Oettinger, Stars	+6600	1.49%
Joe Pavelski, Stars	+6600	1.49%

At +200 Sergei Bobrovsky is currently the favorite to win the Conn Smythe and rightfully so. He has completely turned back the clock since taking over as the starter in game four against Boston and is now sporting a 10-2 record in this postseason. Against the Leafs and Hurricanes Bobrovsky has yet to allow more than two goals in a game including just one goal allowed in his last two starts combined. 

Behind him is Jack Eichel and Matthew Tkachuk both tied at +400. This playoff run has been somewhat of a coming-out party for Eichel as he has proved to the world that he is easily a top-10 center in the NHL. With 16 points in the postseason he has been consistently driving play and scoring for the Golden Knights. Tkachuk has been the best player for the Panthers throughout these playoffs with 19 points including the overtime winners in both games one and two of the ECF. 

Mark Stone is the final member of this group that has pulled away at +550. Clearly battling a back injury, Stone has found a way to still impact the game in every way with his elite defense and a sneaky 15 points. 

At +1600, Vegas’s goaltender Adin Hill provides some value if you are looking to go a little off the board. He has been playing phenomenally for the Golden Knights since taking the net in game three against Edmonton going 6-1 with two shutouts thus far. 

Series Correct Score

With each series essentially wrapped up and the winners all but certainly determined, talking through series winners' odds at this point seems a bit redundant. Rather, to keep it interesting, let’s take a look at the odds for each series’ correct final score. 

In the East, the most likely outcome according to oddsmakers is the Panthers completing the sweep as the odds currently sit at -115 for them to do so. As I mentioned earlier the Panthers are playing lights out right now and putting your money on a team that has won 10 of their past 11 games is never a bad idea. However, All three games of this series have been won by a single goal with overtime being needed in both games one and two (four overtimes in the case of game one). Because of this, I like the value found in Florida closing it out in five at +300. The Hurricanes and Coach Rod Brind'Amour don’t seem like the type to roll over and fold. Given that they’ve been right there with the Panthers in all three games thus far, I like them to finally get some puck luck and snag a win tonight before falling at home as Florida has been the best road team in the playoffs thus far and won both of their previous series on the road. 

As for the Western Conference Final, well, the odds are quite similar to the East. Vegas is currently sitting at +105 to finish off the Stars in Dallas in game four. The odds for Dallas to drag the series on to five or six games are at +210 and +650 respectively. 

I tend to lean the way of the oddsmakers on this one as following two tight overtime wins for Vegas to start the series, they seemingly broke the Stars spirit last night with a 4-0 thumping in Dallas. The Stars looked rattled and outclassed and I think Vegas is ready to take out the brooms. 

Most Points In Series Odds

Interestingly, although the final outcome of both series is essentially determined, due to the low-scoring nature of every game, no one on either side has been able to really pull away when it comes to points scored in the series. 

Ivan Barbashev leads the Western Conference Final in points with four. However, he has just the third-best odds to finish the series with the most points at +500.

Above him, both tied at +450 are Jason Robertson and Jonathan Marchessault. Each man has three points thus far in the series and likely get the nod from the oddsmakers because of their history of producing points at a higher level than Barbashev. 

Roope Hintz, Mark Stone, and Chandler Stephenson also have three points each through the first three games of the series and find themselves all knotted up when it comes to odds at +600.  

Third-liner Nicolas Roy also has three points in the series. His odds however reflect how surprising that number is at just +1400. 

The ECF features much more separation at the top with two men being clear favorites over everybody else. 

Matthew Tkachuk is in the top spot at +160 and rightfully so. He is tied for the series lead in points with three and has been the highest scorer on either team in both the regular and postseason. 

Just a tick behind him at +220 is his Captain Aleksander Barkov. Barkov also has three points thus far in the Conference Finals but suffered an injury in the latter stages of game three that appears likely to leave him hobbled for game four. 

Those two are the clear-cut favorites as the odds balloon to +700 for the next closest players in Sebastian Aho and Carter Verhaeghe. Both Aho and Verhaeghe have two points in the series and should they be able to rack up a couple points in game four or see the series extend, they have a fighting chance at the lead.