Jon Rahm Is The Favorite To Win the 2023 FedExCup Playoffs

With 32 of the 44 FedExCup Regular Season events completed, the 2023 FedExCup Playoffs field is beginning to take shape. While the qualification thresholds have changed from previous years, the Playoffs will once again consist of three legs. The top 70 eligible players on the PGA Tour will compete in the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee. Then the top 50 will contest the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course) in Olympia Fields, Illinois. And unchanged from previous seasons, the top 30 will move on to the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia. Given the current odds being offered by sportsbooks, only three golfers have a double-digit probability of earning the $15M+ purse that comes with the title of FedExCup Playoffs Champion. In January, I wrote about Rory McIlroy being the early favorite to win the 2023 FedExCup Playoffs. While McIlroy is still among the favorites, he has fallen behind this season’s two top performers: Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler.

The FedExCup Playoffs 

Jon Rahm finished a season-worst T50 (ignoring his withdrawal from The Players Championship in March) at last week’s PGA Championship. As a result, the 28-year-old Spaniard relinquished the No. 1 position in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR). Nevertheless, Rahm’s 2022-23 résumé remains the best on Tour. His four wins are twice as many as any other men’s golfer on Tour, and include the Masters Tournament (his second career major victory), two more Designated events – the Sentry Tournament of Champions and The Genesis Invitational – and The American Express. Rahm was also the runner-up at the Mexico Open at Vidanta and has eight top 10s this season. His solid all-around game has him ranked in the top 5 on Tour in birdie average (5.02, 1st), total strokes gained (2.422; 2nd), putting average (1.683; 2nd), scoring average (68.27; 2nd), greens in regulation percentage (72.35%; 3rd), strokes gained approach to green (0.976; 4th) and proximity (35’ 2; 5th). As a result, he is currently No. 1 in the FedExCup standings. Last year, Rahm finished T15 at the Tour Championship. This year, at +275, he is the favorite to win his first FedExCup Playoffs, and his 16 percent increase in implied win probability since January is more than twice as large as the next biggest improvement for an individual golfer over the same period.

Scottie Scheffler won four times on the PGA Tour last season en route to winning the 2022 PGA Tour Player of the Year and earning the 2022 FedExCup Regular Season Championship. It has been more of the same for Scheffler this season with two Designated event wins – defending his title at the WM Phoenix Open and The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass – to go along with 10 tops 10s in 14 events played including a T2 finish at last week’s PGA Championship. As a result, the 26-year-old American has ascended to No. 1 in the OWGR yet again. The last time Scheffler failed to finish inside the top 12 of a PGA TOUR event was at THE CJ CUP in South Carolina in October (T45). Scheffler currently ranks first on TOUR in total strokes gained (2.490), strokes gained off the tee (1.032), stokes gained tee-to-green (2.454), greens in regulation percentage (74.15%) and scoring average (68.19). Last year, Scheffler entered the final leg at East Lake with a two-shot lead over the field, but lost by a single stroke to Rory McIlroy and finished T2 with Sungjae Im. This year, at +450, he has the second-best odds to win his first FedExCup Playoffs. The 7.1 percent increase in implied win probability since January is second best behind only Rahm, a theme that has become all too familiar to Scheffler in 2022-23.

Rahm and Scheffler are the favorites at this stage and their odds are trending in the right direction. Tony Finau (+1400), Max Homa (+2000) and Jason Day (+3500), have also seen their odds to win improve since January while Rory McIlroy (+850), Collin Morikawa (+3000) and Justin Thomas (+4000) are trending in the wrong direction.

Four players have multiple wins on the PGA Tour this season and, as a result, as ranked in the top four of the FedExCup Playoff standings: Jon Rahm (four wins; 1st), Scottie Scheffler (two; 2nd), Max Homa (two; 3rd) and Tony Finau (two; 4th). Homa’s two wins came at the Fortinet Championship in September and the Famers Insurance Open in January. Additionally, the 32-year-old American was the runner-up at The Genesis Invitational in February and has seven top 10s in 15 events played this season. Homa is currently No. 7 in the OWGR and ranks in the top 10 on Tour numerous putting statistics including putting average (1.694; 4th), strokes gained putting (0.709; 5th) and birdie average (4.40; 6th). At +2000, oddsmakers are assigning nearly a five percent chance (nearly a three percent increase since January) that Homa captures his first FedExCup Playoffs Championship.

Among the golfers that have experienced the largest decrease in implied chance to win the 2023 FedExCup Playoffs since January are Justin Thomas (-5.3%), defending champion Rory McIlroy (-4.9%), Collin Morikawa (-2.1%), Tom Kim (+8000; -2.1%), Viktor Hovland (+3500; -2.0%) and Seamus Power (+25000; -2.0%). Will Zalatoris was +2000 (4.8%) in January but is set to miss the remainder of the season as the 26-year-old American recovers from back surgery.