Jon Rahm And Scottie Scheffler Are Co-Favorites To Win The 2023 PGA Championship

The second major championship of the year gets underway this week with the playing of the 105th PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club. This marks the fourth time the Rochester, New York, course has hosted the PGA Championship – second most for any single venue trailing only Tulsa’s Southern Hills, which hosted last year. 99 of the top 100 ranked players in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) are competing this week with only OWGR No. 9 Will Zalatoris missing from the field as he recovers from back surgery. With the loaded field, though, comes plenty of competition for the coveted major championship victory. Given the current odds being offered by sportsbooks, only five golfers have better than a five percent chance to win.

The PGA Championship

No men’s professional golfer is having a better 2022-23 season than Jon Rahm. The 28-year-old Spaniard has four wins (twice as many as any other men’s golfer on Tour), including the Masters Tournament, his second career major victory. In addition to winning at Augusta, Rahm also won two other Designated events – the Sentry Tournament of Champions and The Genesis Invitational – and The American Express. His three wins in January and February marked the first time a men’s golfer registered three wins on Tour in a calendar year prior to March since Johnny Miller accomplished the feat in 1975. With eight top 10s in 12 events played, Rahm is currently No. 1 in the OWGR and the FedExCup standings. He ranks first on Tour in total strokes gained (2.625) and scoring average (67.93) and is in the top 10 in driving distance (312.1), strokes gained approach to green (1.048), greens in regulation percentage (73.85%) and strokes gained putting (.743). At +700, Rahm is a co-favorite to win his first PGA Championship. If he does, it would be his 12th career PGA Tour victory – breaking a tie with Sergio Garcia for the most wins by a Spanish-born player – and third career major championship, which would be the second-most all-time for a Spanish-born player behind only Seve Ballesteros’ five.

Joining Rahm as the co-favorite at +700, is 2022 PGA Tour Player of the Year, Scottie Scheffler, who is having an outstanding 2022-23 season in his own right. With two Designated event wins (defending his title at the WM Phoenix Open and The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass), nine top 10s, 12 top 25s and 13 cuts made from 13 PGA Tour events played, Scheffler would be the lead story in most years. The last time the 26-year-old American failed to finish inside the top 12 was at THE CJ CUP in South Carolina in October and is currently No. 2 in the OWGR and the FedExCup standings. Scheffler currently ranks first on Tour in strokes gained off the tee (1.022), strokes gained tee-to-green (2.309) and greens in regulation percentage (74.42%) and is in the top 10 in total strokes gained (2.311), strokes gained approach to green (0.960), scoring average (68.19) and total driving (47). If there is any cause for concern it is that last season, Scheffler racked up multiple wins by the end of April as well, but then failed to win another PGA Tour event the rest of the year. A win at Oak Hill this week would halt any discussion about Scheffler not being able to continue his winning ways deeper into the season.

As has been the case all season when they enter an event, Rahm and Scheffler and Rahm are the clear favorites this week, but defending champion Justin Thomas (+2000) is included in the next tier of contenders and Jordan Spieth (+2800) needs only a PGA Championship victory to complete his career grand slam.

In last year’s PGA Championship at Southern Hills, Justin Thomas stormed back from a seven-shot deficit in the final round and then outlasted Will Zalatoris in a three-hole playoff to capture his second career PGA Championship victory and major title. It was a much-needed victory for Thomas who had not won since The Players Championship in March 2021, more than a year earlier. As the 30-year-old American prepares to defend his title this week, he finds himself in a similar position, having not won in a full calendar year. In 11 PGA Tour events played this season, Thomas has only two top 10s – the WM Phoenix Open and Valspar Championship – and missed the cut at the Masters. He currently ranks No. 13 in the OWGR and No. 69 in the FedExCup standings – just one spot above the cut line to qualify for the 2022-23 Playoffs. These results would be fine for most golfers, but Thomas is a former world No. 1 with multiple major championships to his name. In the past five PGA Championships, Thomas has registered two wins (2017 and 2022), finished T6 (2018) and T37 (2022), and missed the cut (2021). With a win this week, Thomas would join an exclusive list of men’s golfers to have won the PGA Championship at least three times: Jack Nicklaus (5), Walter Hagan (5), Tiger Woods (4), Gene Sarazen (3) and Sam Snead (3). However, at +2000, oddsmakers are assigning less than a five percent chance of a Thomas victory in New York.