Best NFL Betting Picks
The free NFL betting picks are listed on this page, OLBG's knowledgeable football handicappers add their best NFL picks and analysis for free.
The most popular picks are highlighted for each game, the picks can be for a variety of popular wagering markets like Moneyline, Game Totals, Point Spread, Winning Margin, First Touchdown Scorer, and many more.
The number of NFL handicappers selecting the market outcome, compared to the total number of picks on the market is shown.
This shows the percentage of NFL picks supporting the particular outcome and in addition to the current odds are used together to formulate a 'Value Rating'. Displayed as a 1 to 5 rating (5 being the best), this is a guide to a potential value pick against the theoretical chances of success.
If you are a rookie when it comes to placing NFL wagers then take a few minutes to read our Best Football Betting Sites Guide to help get you started.
Whatever you decide to wager on, you can pick up some great free bets if you want to try out some new legal sportsbooks. We have particularly good lists of NJ sportsbook promos and Michigan sportsbook promos.
How often do NFL favorites win?
Combining NFL favorites in parlays may be a profitable way to go, however, a question that is regularly asked is How often do NFL favorites win? so here are some statistics to help you find the answer to that question.
From the beginning of the 2015-16 season up until the end of the 2023-24 season, the win percentage of favorites ranged from as little as 61% to as high as 70%, and the 2017-18 season is the highest win percentage of 70% and last two seasons (2022-23 & 2023-24) have had the lowest win percentage of just 61%.
The following table shows the favorite and underdog statistics, only games with an outcome are included and only games when there was a favorite are included:
| Season | Games | Fav | Fav % | Dog | Dog % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | 264 | 165 | 63% | 99 | 38% |
| 2016-17 | 264 | 173 | 66% | 91 | 34% |
| 2017-18 | 264 | 185 | 70% | 79 | 30% |
| 2018-19 | 260 | 170 | 65% | 90 | 35% |
| 2019-20 | 265 | 172 | 65% | 93 | 35% |
| 2020-21 | 268 | 176 | 66% | 92 | 34% |
| 2021-22 | 284 | 179 | 63% | 105 | 37% |
| 2022-23 | 282 | 171 | 61% | 111 | 39% |
| 2023-24 | 285 | 175 | 61% | 110 | 39% |
Top Five Performing Favorites
For games between the 2015-16 and 2023-24 seasons, these are the top five performing teams when they are favorites to win:
- Kansas City Chiefs (100-134 75%)
- New England Patriots (87-121 72%)
- Miami Dolphins (35-49 71%)
- Los Angeles Rams (60-86 70%)
- Minnesota Vikings (61-88 69%)
Four teams fall under the 50% win rate mark when favorites, St Louis Rams only have a 33% win rate (2-6), San Diego Chargers with 42% (5-12), Jacksonville Jaguars have a 48% win rate (24-50) and the Las Vegas Raiders with 48% (12-25) so have not been the most reliable teams to wager on when favorites.
Is it better to bet on the dog? In terms of 'Giant Killers', there are only two teams who have played over twenty-five games as dogs between the seasons that we are looking at and have gone on to win over 50% of those games as the dogs. Those are the Pittsburgh Steelers who have won 34 from 64 games, a win rate of 53%, and the Kansas City Chiefs who have won 16 from 27 as underdogs, a win rate of 59%, those are very good figures against the favorites so it is worth watching out for them being picked by our expert NFL handicappers when they are dogs.
NFL Betting Strategies and Systems
A lot of handicappers will be looking for systems or strategies to use during the NFL season, these can involve an array of things from player props to team wagers.
We have three blogs outlining different NFL strategies that you may find useful for this season, the first looks at NFL opening game records, which teams get off to a good start and which do not.
Monday Night Football is very popular, the nation comes together to watch that week's live match (or two) so we have looked for Monday Night Football strategies too.
Our NFL Head-to-Head strategy guide looks for profitable games based on matchups, do teams do better when hosting certain teams, or traveling to certain teams?
We have found a circumstance where wagering on a team playing back-to-back road games in the past has been profitable!
Finally, we have answered the question that is asked every season for the totals market, do most NFL games go over or under?
NFL Schedule
Here's a month-by-month look at the NFL year, listing the key events and highlighting when to expect NFL future picks for the new NFL season ahead and NFL match predictions during the active months of the regular season and post-season playoffs and right through to the Super Bowl.
January
- Regular Season Concludes: The 32 NFL teams across the 8 divisions in the AFC and NFC complete their final regular season fixtures in early January. Fourteen teams, the four divisional winners, and three wild card qualifiers from each conference make it through to the end-of-season playoffs. The six wild card teams will be those who finished with the best win/loss records despite not winning their division. The seven AFC teams and NFC teams are seeded 1 to 7 respectively in their conference, the seeding is determined by number 1 being the divisional winner with the best win/loss/tie record, numbers 2, 3 & 4 being the remaining divisional winners and numbers 5, 6 & 7 being the wild card qualifiers with the seeding being decided by best win/loss/tie record and head to head results (if needed).
- Wild Card Weekend: The Wild Card weekend closely follows the regular season end with three of the AFC Divisional winners taking on the three AFC teams receiving a wild card place and three of the NFC Divisional winners taking on the three NFC teams receiving a wild card. The AFC team and NFC team finishing with the best win/loss record and winning their respective division receive an automatic bye into the Divisional Play-Off round. The three wild card pairings for both the AFC & NFC are shown in the table below, the home team in each pairing is the best-seeded.
| 6th Seed (2nd placed Wild Card) | @ | 3rd Seed (3rd best Division Winner) |
| 7th Seed (3rd placed Wild Card) | @ | 2nd Seed (2nd best Division Winner) |
| 5th Seed (best Wild Card) | @ | 4th Seed (4th best Division Winner) |
- Divisional Play-Off Round: The six successful teams from the Wild Card Weekend make it through to the Divisional Play-Offs Round and they are joined by the number 1 seeds from the AFC & NFC who received a Wild Card Weekend bye for finishing the regular season with the best win/loss/tie record. The pairings for the Divisional Play-Offs are shown in the table below, the lowest remaining seed plays @ the best seed, and so on:
| 2nd lowest seed | @ | 2nd best seed |
| Lowest seed | @ | 1st seed (best division winner) |
- Conference Championship Weekend: One step away from the Super Bowl for the AFC & NFC Divisional Play-Off Round winners who now meet to decide the NFC Championship and AFC Championship, winners. The best-rated seed remaining in both conferences will be @ home. Who will make it through to contest the Vince Lombardi Trophy? See what the best-performing OLBG tipsters predict over on the Best NFL Tipsters page.
February
- Pro Bowl Game: Usually takes place the weekend before the Super Bowl and is an All-Star Pro Bowl game featuring an AFC team against a team representing the NFC. Participating players are invited to play via nominations by fellow NFL colleagues, players, coaches, and NFL fans voting on the NFL website. Players selected to appear in the All-Star Pro Bowl game who subsequently feature in the following weekend's Super Bowl do not participate in the Pro Bowl game in case of injury. A coach is selected from each conference to manage their respective conference All-Star team.
- Super Bowl: The most prestigious NFL game in the USA is the pinnacle of the NFL season with the AFC champions meeting the NFC champions to see who will lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy and be crowned Super Bowl winners.
March
- NFL Player Trading: The dust has settled after the Super Bowl which draws the NFL season to a close and March signals the annual 'clear out' and NFL team roster changes with the Player trading period commencing. Some players will become 'Free Agents' if contracts are not renewed and 'trades' are also agreed upon between teams who may give up 'NFL Draft' round selections which can be for several upcoming seasons to secure a prime target. For example, ahead of the 2022 NFL season, four experienced Quarterbacks (Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, and Deshaun Watson) were traded in exchange for NFL Draft Round Selections over the next few seasons. 'Player Trades' also take place by way of a straight exchange without any Draft Selections as part of the deal.
April
- NFL Draft: The eagerly awaited annual Draft Selection process is an exciting time for NFL fans to see if their team can secure a potential future NFL Hall of Fame player who may revive the team's fortunes. The NFL Draft is the primary opportunity for NFL teams to recruit new players to their roster, players on the draft must have finished high school at least three years ago and the majority will have played College Football although this is not a prerequisite. Players can also be selected from the Canadian Football League (CFL) and Arena Football League (AFL), leagues that are covered in the NFL picks on OLBG. The event takes place over three days with a round taking place every day, the order of picks is determined in descending order by how well the 32 teams performed the previous season. The team with the worst record will have the 1st pick (considered to be the best choice) and the team winning the Super Bowl will have the final pick (32nd) of the round. Teams can trade allocated NFL Draft Round Selections as mentioned above. To see the most recent annual draft head over to the NFL website draft picks section.
May
- New Season Schedule Released: The fixture schedule for the upcoming NFL regular season is released, and some notable dates will be announced in advance of the full 18-week regular season schedule. These include the NFL International Series which will see games taking place across the pond in London (NFL London Series) at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and Wembley in October. There was a new country added to the roster for the first time in November 2022 with a game taking place in Germany.
July
- Preseason Training Camp: Teams tend to begin their preseason training around late July.
August
- Pro Football Hall of Fame Game: Preseason practice matches usually commence in early August along with the Pro Football Hall of Fame game which is an annual NFL exhibition game in Ohio. The match coincides with the NFL Hall of Fame Induction Ceremonies. The participating teams are announced around Super Bowl week (February) along with the newest names to be inducted into the NFL Hall of Fame.
September
- New Regular Season Commences: Early September sees the start of the new NFL regular season games with the reigning Super Bowl winners kicking off the new season. For a full list of the NFL season schedule head over to the NFL website schedules section.
October
- NFL International Series: Six NFL teams travel across the pond in October with three scheduled NFL regular season games taking place in London at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and Wembley. The NFL London Series grows in popularity year on year with high demand for match tickets resulting in fast sellouts at the Box Office.
November
- NFL International Series: For the first time in November 2022, European NFL fans had the opportunity to watch a regular season NFL game in Munich, Germany.
- Thanksgiving Day: A regular slot in the NFL regular season schedule now sees three NFL games screened live on Thanksgiving Day.
Luke Bradshaw Lee and James Banting collaborate to provide comprehensive American Football coverage on OLBG by creating and maintaining our NFL content including for the NFL Predictions page.
