rich2174

Try to find well handicapped horses that I think are good value

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rich2174's Tips History

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02 May 2024
19:30 7:30 Chelmsford City

Miss Black Jack

Daily Racing

25 EW

@19.00

Lose

-50

Absolutely romped home LTO over this distance at Dundalk carrying 10 stone and whilst that race wasn't the quickest in terms of finishing time, I think 18/1 is decent with 4 places on offer.
18:25 6:25 Chelmsford City

Wadacre Grace

Daily Racing

25 EW

@10.00

Lose

-50

She has been in fine form on the all weather this year winning once and finishing 2nd and 4th. LTO she finished a neck 2nd to Ciara Pearl who won easily at Bath next time out. I think this is great form and I can't see the 1lb rise stopping her from finishing in the top 3 today.
17:15 5:15 Lingfield

Bbob Alula

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 13.00 on 01/05 at 21:460.25 deduction for Chourmo@3.50 withdrawn at 08:090.00 deduction for Pink Jazz @11.000 withdrawn at 11:41R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 12.00 x (1-0.25) = 10.00

@10.00

Win

31

LTO he finished 5L 6th at Brighton but that was a decent run for his first run after a 6 month break. His last run of 2023 was over C&D and he finished an excellent 1L 3rd. He has also won over a mile at this course and I think that he'll enjoy the return to Lingfield tomorrow with the reappearance under his belt. More than happy to take 12/1.
15:17 3:17 Redcar

John Kirkup

Daily Racing

25 EW

@10.00

Lose

-50

This horse is a C&D winner and performs on soft ground. LTO he finished 8L 3rd but I'm happy to put a line through that run as the 2 in front of him drew clear and no one was catching them both that day. His last win over C&D was in October and the jockey on board that day was Dylan Hogan who returns to the saddle for the first time since then.
14:22 2:22 Ayr

Golden Rainbow

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.50

Lose

-50

In really good form recently on the all weather and has ran well on turf before so this shouldn't be an issue. He is 6lb below his last turf mark and I'm expecting him to go well today.
01 May 2024
20:30 8:30 Kempton

Mrs Morrell

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.75

Lose

-50

LTO she made all to win a 6f novice event at Chelmsford and put up a fairly decent finishing time. That day she beat Roman Emporer who has finished 2nd off marks of 81 and 80. In November she finished 2nd behind Havana Ball who is rated 92. I think 77 is a really good mark for her handicap debut and it wouldnt surprise me if she won today.
20:00 8:00 Kempton

Baltimore Boy

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Lose

-50

This is a tough handicap to work out but I'm happy to take Baltimore Boy at 10/1 with 4 places on offer today. LTO he finished 10/18 over 1m2f but that's certainly not his preferred trip and he's back down to 1m today. The run before that he finished 5th at Kempton off 4lbs higher than today and wasn't far behind a horse I really fancy at Ascot today (Vultar). He is on a really good mark and won over C&D off 2lbs higher in August before finishing 1L 3rd in a Class 2 also over C&D next time out.
19:15 7:15 Brighton

Buy The Dip

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.25

Lose

-50

Excellent form over C&D towards the end of last season and a 2lb rise to his turf mark shouldn't stop him winning today. He finished a good 6th at Kempton LTO after a 6 month break and was unlucky that day with having a clear run denied. Back at his favourite course today over his favourite trip and he should have enough to beat these.
18:35 6:35 Punchestown

Mozzies Sister

Daily Racing

25 EW

@7.50

Win

7

Really like this horse today as an outside chance. Her win at Cork LTO on her rules debut was absolutely dominating and she beat a much more experienced horse in Lep Around by 14 lengths. She didn't get out of 1st gear that day and Lep Around went onto win next time out too. This is a much tougher race for Mozzies Sister but I like the form and think she could nip into the places.
18:25 6:25 Kempton

Semser

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

I like a Gary Moore gamble and think this horse could well be one tomorrow. He finished a good 2nd at Chelmsford in his last race of 2023 off top weight and his 2 runs this year can be completely excused. He made his reappearance in March over 1m2f at Lingfield but was never really put in the race and would have needed that run. He then ran over a mile LTO but started really slowly. He returns to a trip that suits him today, and is 2lb lower than his Chelmsford 2nd and 3lb lower than his last winning mark. He can certainly put up a good race and it wouldn't shock me if he won today.
17:10 5:10 Ascot

Vultar

Daily Racing

25 EW

@5.50

Lose

-50

This horse has been in fine form this year on the all weather and only finished 0.5L 2nd LTO at Kempton. He had Bluelight Boy behind him that day and with Oliver Timms' valuable 7lb claim today he's much better off at the weights today so I can't see that form being reversed. The soft ground is an unknown for him but his dam won first time out on very soft ground so it may not bother him today.
16:00 4:00 Ascot

Juicy

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@4.50

Lose

-50

I really like this handicap debutant today. On debut at Southwell she won with ease before finishing 2nd next time out after bumping into Blazes Boylan at Chelmsford. She carried over a stone more than Blazes Boylan that day and only finished 0.5L behind him and he's now rated 79. Juicy finished 4th at Newcastle LTO but was slowly away and didn't have a good run in at all. I think the mark of 78 today is more than fair and fancy her to win this. 
15:05 3:05 Punchestown

Answer To Kayf

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.75

Lose

-50

Finished a brilliant 4th LTO in the Martin Pipe and a repeat of that run should see him go very close if not win today. He's only 1lb higher than that run and the apprentice jockey that day rides him today with more experience under his belt and another 7lb taken off and the horse won't have the Cheltenham hill to deal with at the end either. 2 runs ago he won a good race at Naas and had the favourite for today (Blizzard of Oz) behind him and I just can't see that form being reversed here on paper. 
14:50 2:50 Ascot

Purosangue

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 5.50 used instead of 5.00 takenBOG

@5.50

Lose

-3

LTO he beat Esquire who went onto win the Group 3 Greenham Stakes. He was 2nd to Inquisitively in August who went onto win the Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes. The race before that he was neck 2nd to Big Evs who went onto win a Group 2 at Doncaster before winning the Group 1 Breeders Cup Sprint. This is by far the best form in the race and I think he's really good value at 4/1. Certain bookies are also paying 4 places which is why I've had this as an EW tip and it would be perfect for an EW lucky 15 or trixie.
14:15 2:15 Ascot

Sweet William

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.75

Lose

-50

Sweet William could turn into one of the best stayers in the country this year. He was only 4 years old last season and more than held his own when stepping up to Group races towards the end of last year. He finished 13L 3rd at Ascot over this trip LTO in October but he was the joint youngest horse in the race and beat Trueshan or Coltrane. He's much worse off than Trueshan at the weights today and Coltrane's run at Meydan backed up his poor runs towards the end of last season. In September at Doncaster, Sweet William finished 1.75L behind Trueshan over 2m2f but that was his first time racing over that trip whilst we know Trueshan stays much further. I think he could be a real improver today and I'm sure the Gosden Yard will have him ready for this one.
13:50 1:50 Wolverhampton

Triple Nickle

Daily Racing

25 EW

@21.00

Lose

-50

Triple Nickle hasn't won in nearly 3 years but has dropped massively in the weights and surely wins soon. She finished 5th over C&D in January off a 4lb higher mark (technically 9lb higher with todays apprentice jockey's claim) and followed that up with a good 3rd at Kempton in February. She finished 6/8 next time out at Lingfield but was only beaten 8 lengths which isn't that much over 2 miles. LTO she ran in a hurdle race at Fakenham and finished a good 2nd. She runs off a mark of 48 today which is her lowest ever mark on the flat and could easily hit the places.
30 April 2024
18:00 6:00 Punchestown

Sharjah

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

Sharjah is an absolute veteran of the game and I was very impressed watching him win over 3m carrying 12 stone at Ayr 2 weeks ago. The furthest he ever ran before that was over 2m4f and to step up to 3 miles and win as comfortably as he did gives me some confidence that he can get into the places today.
15:20 3:15 Yarmouth

Red Pixie

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@7.00

Win

5

Not a race I'd usually bet on but but Red Pixie looks decent odds here. She finished 4th on debut LTO in November and her inexperience clearly showed with only one other horse in the top 6 making their debut that day. The form hasn't worked out brilliantly with the horses in the top 3 that day, but the horse in 5th won next time out and finished a 2L 3rd in the Group 3 Nell Gwyn stakes at Newmarket last week.
14:25 2:25 Brighton

Poetic Force

Daily Racing

25 EW

@10.00

Lose

-50

The step back in trip to 7f could be what he needs today back at his favourite course. He won over C&D in August off 1lb lower before stepping up to 1m and finishing 2nd and 3rd here. He's had some OK runs on the all weather over a mile recently and could be ready to strike today. Really good apprentice jockey in Jack Doughty takes off 7lb which is a massive help.
29 April 2024
19:39 7:39 Windsor

Hatadora

Daily Racing

50 WINNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@3.25

Win

112

LTO he was nabbed on the line by a smart horse making his handicap debut over C&D and has been dropped 1lb for that run. He won over a mile at Lingfield in February before following that up with two decent runs, and runs off 1lb higher than his last winning mark (which was on handicap debut) today.
19:20 7:20 Naas

Snellen

Daily Racing

25 EW

@5.50

Lose

-50

Snellen won the Chesham Stakes at Ascot in June even after running a bit green that day and had some excellent horses behind her. She couldn't follow that up at the Curragh next time out and finished last in a the 7f Group 2 Debutante Stakes. She then stepped up to 1m for a Group 3 race and finished 6.25L 6th. She only finished 1L behind Brilliant who won a Group 3 in March. She may need slightly better ground but is in much calmer waters today and could easily defy her handicap mark of 92.
19:09 7:09 Windsor

Demanding Lilley

Daily Racing

25 EW

@41.00

Lose

-50

This could be a great plot by connections today, her first 3 runs have been over 1m and steps up to 1m4f today for her handicap debut. Her dam won over 2m and 2m5f so staying this trip shouldn't be an issue. The 4 places on offer is huge today and certain bookies are even paying 5 places.
19:00 7:00 Wolverhampton

Coast

Daily Racing

25 EW

@12.00

Lose

-50

I thought this horse would be a much shorter price than 11/1 today. I think she is the most consistent horse in this race at the moment as she hasn't had a bad run since 6 runs ago. Whilst she may not have won recently, she is a 2 time C&D winner and is still 1lb below her last winning mark. I think there are a lot of flaws in the other horses today and think she goes close.
18:39 6:39 Windsor

First Officer

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@9.00

Win

240

His last 2 runs have been brilliant finishing 2nd LTO in November in a Class 3 at Newmarket after winning there in another Class 3 in September. He drops down in class today and is only 1lb higher than his last run. He has won after a break before and the apprentice jockey takes off 7lbs. Whilst I would have preferred him to have a more experienced jockey on board, I'm happy to take the 8/1 on offer and think he should get into the places,
18:20 6:20 Naas

Go Athletico

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@10.00

Win

20

LTO he finished 8/9 in Doha but I'm happy to excuse him for that run as there are so many potential reasons for the poor performance (travelling, heat etc). He should be back to himself on home soil and his form last year was brilliant. He won a Group 3 at the Curragh in September before finishing 1L 3rd in a Group 3 at Chantilly. I'm confident he can outrun his odds of 9/1 today.
17:15 5:15 Southwell

Khamsin

Daily Racing

25 EW

@6.50

Win

2

This horse has only ran once over todays distance but in my opinion that was his best ever race. He finished 4th that day, only 2.5L 4th and that was after being eased towards the finish. He has only ran 4 times in handicaps and is 10lb below his first handicap mark. He could be really well handicapped today
16:40 4:40 Southwell

Copper Mountain

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.00

Lose

-50

In great form this year over 1m and his form at this trip reads 2341 in 2024. He only finished a neck 2nd at Kempton LTO and a repeat of that run today should see him get his head in front. He hasn't risen in the weights at all this year, helped by running numerous races over 7f which is certainly not his best trip, and I think tomorrow could be the day he wins.
16:34 4:34 Windsor

Bint Havana Gold

Daily Racing

25 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@8.00

Void

0

This horse has been running really well this year. Since making her handicap debut in January she has won twice, finished 2nd once and finished 5th LTO. That 5th place finish at Southwell looks worse on paper than it actually was in my opinion. If you watch the race back she actually finished quite well and raced wide that day. She only finished 2.25L behind the winner and a repeat of that run could see her in the places here. She has a little bit to find with Chiedozie but if Ethan Jones can settle her better she could get the better of him.
16:25 4:25 Ayr

Yiengaa

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.38

Lose

-50

Finished an excellent 2nd LTO at Nottingham coming from the back and on another day she could have won that but just couldn't catch the winner. Her 6L 4th at Catterick at the start of April wasn't as bad as it looks on paper with the winner absolutely cruising home on his handicap debut. I think she is the best horse in this race and can't see anything else beating her today on paper.
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15:50 3:50 Ayr

Classy Al

Daily Racing

25 EW

@6.00

Lose

-50

LTO he finished 3rd in a Class 4 event at Musselburgh. The top 5 that day were all running up front and Classy Al was held up in the rear off the pace but he still managed to take 3rd place. He runs off the same mark today and is back up to his preferred trip , whilst also dropping down in class. He has won over C&D before and the forecast rain tomorrow could help him out massively.  
15:35 3:35 Southwell

Peruvian Sunset

Daily Racing

25 EW

@26.00

Lose

-50

This horse has only ran in 2 handicaps so far and is still very unexposed. On her handicap debut at Southwell over 1m it was clear that she needed further and stepped up to 1m2f at Chelmsford LTO. She finished 3L 5th that day and this step up to 1m4f could really suit today. Connections have picked an experienced jockey to ride today compared to her last 2 runs where she's had apprentices on board, and this could be a good plot. She's related to 1m5f / 2m winners so the step up in trip could be exactly what she needs.
15:15 3:15 Ayr

Powerful Response

Daily Racing

25 EW

@7.00

Win

5

Good win @ Nottingham LTO nabbing the win at the line. He's only raised 1lb for that win today and it looks like 1m2f will be his best trip going forward. In March he ran over this distance on reappearance after 5 months off and finished 7L 4th to the favourite in todays race Bustaam. He gave Bustaam 6lb that day and will now receive 8lbs off him. I'm confident that he can reverse the form with a run and a win under his belt.
14:45 2:45 Ayr

See My Baby Jive

Daily Racing

25 EW

@10.00

Lose

-50

This horse had a hat trick of C&D wins last season and followed his hat trick with a good 3rd over C&D too. He then finished 4th at Hamilton before going onto run 3 races over 7f. He returns to 6f at a course he clearly loves today and has dropped down to a mark of 53 which is his last winning mark. Rhys Elliott takes off 7lb today which is huge and he's in good form with 2 places from his last 3 runners, and the trainer Donald Whillans is in decent form with 2 winners and 2 places out of his 5 runners in the last 2 weeks.
28 April 2024
17:55 5:55 Southwell

New Image

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.75

Win

137

The more I look at this horse the more I fancy it today. He's been running exceptionally well since returning from a 1.5 year break this year. He won his first race back at this course before finishing a 1.5L 3rd over 6f at Wolverhampton at the start of this month. He should be fresh today and improve on that run from an unchanged mark. He's been quite strong in the betting too for quite a strong race. 
17:25 5:25 Southwell

King Of York

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

This horse drops back down to 7f having ran his last 2 races over 1m and his C&D record is great (12132). He has slowly risen in the weights since the start of last year but is only 2lb higher than his last win which was over C&D in March. Elisha Whittington takes off 3lb today so he's technically 1lb below his last winning mark and although upped in class I think we'll get a real good run for our money today with him carrying only 8 stone 5lb.
16:40 4:40 Wetherby

Phoenix Star

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Lose

-50

This horse has been running excellently this year and I've got a feeling that he's 10/1 because of his run LTO where he finished 8/12 off todays mark however he was only 3L behind the winner and had an awful draw that day. I still don't think he has reached his peak in terms of handicap mark and fancy him to get into the places today.
15:10 3:10 Southwell

Bothar

Daily Racing

25 EW

@26.00

Lose

-50

Not something I would usually bet on but think this is good value at 25/1. Not seen since November when he finished 4/9 at Newcastle and ran really well that day before being hampered lost 3rd close to home and horse in 2nd that day won last week. The high odds may mean that connections know something we don't but the trainer is in outstanding form this season and knows how to get a horse ready after a break.
14:50 2:50 Longchamp

Zarir

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Win

45

Easily won LTO by 5L at Chantilly on the all weather and had Sober back in 2nd who is well fancied for todays Prix de Barbeville. In 4th that day was Sevenna's Knight who is also fancied in that race today and put an eye catching performance in at Dubai LTO. In July Zarir finished 3rd at Vichy behind Zarakem who won a Group 2 LTO and Double Major who is clear fav for the Prix De Barbeville today. He was under 1L behind those pair that day and if he can put a similar performance in as those 2 races he should go close today. The forecast is looking quite dry in Paris today which should be a big plus for him too.
14:20 2:20 Bath

Level Up

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

Finished a good 2nd over C&D in October last year on heavy so the forecast rain shouldn't be a problem. That day he was beat a neck by Connie's Rose who he faces again today, he gave Connie's Rose 9lbs that day but receives 2lbs today with Jack Doughty's claim so is much better off at the weights. He has had some really good runs this year and I hope the return to turf can see him nick a place today with the 4 places on offer.
14:10 2:10 Southwell

Robusto

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.25

Lose

-50

Excellent 2nd LTO over C&D only bumping into a very smart horse in Cool Party that day who is too good to be racing in Class 4 handicaps. That was Robusto's first race after 6 months off and the 6lb increase in weight along with being upped in class didnt seem to bother him that day. He runs off the same mark today and I fully expect him to win this weaker race than last time.
26 April 2024
18:30 6:30 Newcastle

Kristal Klear

Daily Racing

50 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@23.00

Win

170

A very interesting runner today for me - she has ran her last 4 races over 1m2f which I really doesn't think suits her. She's not looked like she's stayed the distance in any of those 4 races and nothing in her pedigree says she should be running over that trip. Her last run over 1m was in June and that was a much better showing finishing 4th and she also finished 3rd the run before that which was her handicap debut. She has gradually dropped a whopping 15lbs since that race last year and I'm certain this could be a good plot by connections.
16:45 4:45 Sandown

Endosser

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Lose

-50

Good 2nd LTO at Chelmsford only finishing a short head behind the winner who he gave 5lbs that day and he's dropped 1lb for that run today which I was surprised about. In February he finished 2nd to a smart Godolphin horse and had Atilla The Honey back in 3rd who has gone onto win twice since and is now rated 82. He gave Atilla The Honey 8lb that day too. I'm convinced Endosser is a better horse than what he has shown in his 2 starts this year and this switch to turf and the booking of Ryan Moore could be very helpful.
15:40 3:40 Doncaster

Our Golden One

Daily Racing

50 WINNOTETip made at odds of 5.00 on 25/04 at 19:410.30 deduction for Too Bossy For Us@3.25 withdrawn at 14:35R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 4.00 x (1-0.30) = 3.80Best Odds Guaranteed SP 4.33 used instead of 3.80 BOG

@4.33

Win

166

Although not a type I'd usually back in a handicap I can't get away from this horse today. Was very smart last season at 2 years old and won a nice race in October at Nottingham. She beat Beeley that day and also had Rolica back in 3rd who won at Newmarket last week. The ground will be no problem for her today having won on heavy LTO and the step up in trip should suit being related to 1m2f winners.
15:00 3:00 Sandown

Poker Face

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@7.50

Win

7

I really like this horse today and think he is really good value at 13/2. He finished last season winning Group 2 and Group 3 races in France and stayed on well to win a listed race at Pontefract on home soil in July. He looks like a real improver and 1m is definitely his best trip.
14:25 2:25 Sandown

Okeechobee

Daily Racing

50 WINNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 4.33 used instead of 3.75 takenBOG

@4.33

Win

166

This horse missed the whole of 2023 after proving to be a very smart 2 year old. He won 3/4 races as a colt and I'm convinced he would have gone onto win some nice races at 3. LTO he finished 3L 3rd in a listed race at Kempton but that was after 1.5 years off the track and the winner that day has previous group form including winning two Group 2 races and a Group 1. I really think Okeechobee will come on for that run and win this today,
13:58 1:58 Doncaster

Five Winds

Daily Racing

25 EW

@9.00

Lose

-50

Excellent 2.5L 4th LTO on her reappearance at Chelmsford stepped up to 7f and should come on for that run today. She has been dropped 1lb for that run and I'm expecting big improvement today. That was a very strong race (17k prize money) and she carried a fair weight that day. The soft ground is an unknown for her but her dam finished 2nd on heavy. A very good jockey in Charles Bishop is booked to ride today too.
13:23 1:23 Doncaster

Bantry

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@12.00

Win

330

He finished 3L 5th LTO at Kempton but was slowly away and most of the top 5 were up at the front during that race. If he can break well today and there is a lot more pace he is in with a better chance. He had some good form over 7f in Ireland in 2022 and over this trip last year on the turf. This will be his 2nd run after a wind op and he is on a really low mark. Trainer John O'Shea's horses are in good form at the moment and I fancy this one to at least place with the 4 places on offer.
13:15 1:15 Sandown

Tan Rapido

Daily Racing

25 EW

@10.00

Lose

-50

Finished a good 2nd LTO by a neck giving 7lb to the winner and the jockey said the horse hung left and ran too free that day. He may have needed that run after 8 months off. In his last race before his reappearance he won a maiden race over todays distance at Windsor and beat a good horse in 2nd that day. I think his mark of 82 could be generous and David Probert rides him today.
22 April 2024
16:45 4:45 Windsor

Roman Spring

Daily Racing

25 EW

@23.00

Lose

-50

I'm going all the way back to October 2022 with this horse - in a novice race he finished 2nd over C&D on good ground that day and since then he has mostly raced on heavy ground or the all weather. The only time he hasn't is at Haydock when he was upped to 1m which he clearly didn't stay. He did finish a good 4th in January at Kempton over todays distance so the ability is there and I'm hoping that the return to quick ground and another drop in weights can help him hit the places today.
15:55 3:22 Pontefract

Paris Lights

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

LTO at Newcastle I don't think he suited the 1m2f at all so being dropped back in trip should help today. He has been dropped 2lbs for that run and since the start of this year he has been dropped a total of 5lbs in 3 flat races. In March he finished a good 4th at Newcastle in a Class 4 over todays distance and wasn't disgraced when running over 1m2f again at Wolverhampton in January. He was running in Class 3's last year and he's only 5 years old - he's still very talented and I think this return to turf, the drop in class and the drop in trip could really help him out today.
15:22 2:52 Pontefract

Baryshnikov

Daily Racing

25 EW

@10.00

Lose

-50

His form over C&D reads 23123 and he goes well on soft ground. He finished 4/10 in a Class 3 at Doncaster LTO and looked to be outpaced slightly that day but may have needed that run. He runs off 1lb lower today and I can see him getting into the places. He was running well off marks of 91 last year so I'm convinced he's still well handicapped. 

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