c4stle
National Hunt follower who is more profitable on the flat…
1
Estimated Prizes
this month
£10
Estimated Prize money
this month
c4stle's Tips History
11 March 2025
17:20 5:20 Cheltenham
Transmission
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@6.00
Lose
-50
The step up in trip should really suit, having come home really strongly behind Haiti Couleurs here two starts back over 25.5f. 4 lbs better off with that rival and arguably would have won that race had it been over a furlong longer. Has loads of course experience having run here four times this season, latterly over hurdles in what looked a clear prep for this - a tactic the stable have used to good effect before. Patrick Mullins won on him earlier in the season and he'll relish the quicker ground more than most of these dour stayers.
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16:40 4:40 Cheltenham
Holy See
Daily Racing
25 EW
@19.00
Lose
-50
Holy See has come for a bit of money but still looks overpriced from a mark of 125, 6 lbs above his Irish mark. He had some good flat form in France before switching to hurdles, and his form stacks up pretty well. He finished 4th in a hot maiden hurdle where the 2nd has won three times since, and the 3rd is Grade 3 placed. He followed up that effort by finishing 1.25L 2nd to the Willie Mullins-trained Charlus, who was highly touted and goes in the Grade 1 Triumph Hurdle on Friday. His run last time came in the infamous Naas hurdle race, which has thrown up so many winners in this contest. Although being sent off as the favorite, his run looked like one needed to get him handicapped for this and unite him with today's jockey for the first time. Cheekpieces go on today, and the jockey takes off a useful 5 lbs, leaving him just 1 lb above his Irish mark. He can go well at a price.
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13:20 1:20 Cheltenham
Kopek Des Bordes
Daily Racing
50 WINNBNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@2.00
Win
50
Kopek Des Bordes has a favorite's chance of starting things off with a bang for Willie Mullins, having bolted up in the Grade 1 at the DRF. His jumping had improved massively that day, and a repeat performance would be enough to win this.
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Subtotal-50
08 March 2025
14:25 2:25 Sandown
Hardy Du Seuil
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@29.00
Lose
-50
I suspect this has been a long-term plan for Hardy Du Seuil, having only made his seasonal return in December. Ran pretty well the last twice, finishing 2nd on return and then a good 5th in a competitive handicap LTO at the Windsor meeting. Those runs have seen his mark drop by just 1 lb to 129, but he boasts some good course form here, having won once from two hurdle starts, winning from 124 before being unsuited by the heavy going in the 2023 renewal of this race, finishing 7th. Cheekpieces went on for two subsequent runs, finishing 2nd both times from marks of 128 and 131. Headgear has been off since, including during a couple of chase starts, and they go back on for the first time today. The yard is in good fettle, and the combination of strong course form and headgear makes him look well handicapped from this mark of 129 with a 7 lbs claimer in the saddle.
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14:05 2:05 Hereford
Mackenberg
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@7.50
Lose
-50
Mackenburg looked set to win this comfortably last season before an unlucky unseat, and he's 9 lbs lower this year. That's largely because he's pulled up twice since but finished a good 3rd two starts back from 8 lbs higher, and the cheekpieces go on for the first time today. Quicker ground looks to suit well, and if the headgear helps him focus, he could upset the apple cart.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-100
01 March 2025
15:45 3:45 Newbury
Billytherealbigred
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@6.00
Lose
-50
I suspect Jagwar will prove himself to be a real handicap blot, which in turn will frank the form of Billytherealbigred. However, the latter reappears first and looks to be a nice price to get his nose in front. Sent off as favorite to beat Jagwar LTO, he's 3lbs higher today, but the claimer in the saddle will negate that rise. With conditions to suit, I think he can make amends.
15:30 3:30 Kelso
Petrol Head
Daily Racing
25 EW
@19.00
Lose
-50
Petrol Head has an interesting profile and, despite being a 9-year-old, is still quite lightly raced. Started off with Ronan McNally and campaigned with a good handicap mark in mind, and the handbrake seemed to come off for the last two runs for that yard. Changed hands and won twice for a new stable, including off a 708-day break, and has changed yards again, joining Neil Mulholland. 13 lbs higher than his LTO win, and this will be the first run for his new stable, but I think he can defy a mark of 130 on his upwards curve. Looks like loads of pace on offer, which should suit his quiet running style, and he clearly goes well fresh.
2 members found this comment useful
15:15 3:15 Doncaster
Moroder
Daily Racing
25 EWNBNOTETip made at odds of 21.00 on 28/02 at 16:320.10 deduction for Surrey Quest@9.00 withdrawn at 13:29R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 20.00 x (1-0.10) = 19.00Best Odds Guaranteed SP 34.00 used instead of 19.00 BOG
@34.00
Win
990
Moroder won this two years ago from a mark of 131, and although now an 11-year-old, could have every chance this year from 6 lbs lower. Spat the dummy out in first-time cheekpieces LTO and has been freshened up since, but form suggests he's a much better horse in the spring, with his last 5 wins/places all coming from late February through to April, and on quicker ground. Should appreciate the sun on his back, and blinkers are refitted having seen him finish 2nd at Cheltenham last April from a mark 2 lbs higher. Red Infantry won this as an 11-year-old four years ago, and whilst others might be using this as a prep for spring festivals, I'd expect him to have had this as the target from some way out.
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14:55 2:55 Kelso
Roadlesstravelled
Daily Racing
25 EW
@15.00
Lose
-50
I'm in a forgiving mood today. If drawing a line through Roadlesstravelled's poor run last time, when pulling up at Ascot in a Grade 1, he looks to have every chance of defying a 5 lbs penalty. That came from his win two starts back when comfortably beating two subsequent winners in a Grade 2 novice hurdle. Quicker ground should help, although the yard could be in better form.
Subtotal840
23 February 2025
15:50 3:50 Naas
Will The Wise
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.75
Win
137
Will The Wise steps into handicap company for the first time having finished 3rd behind two subsequent winners two starts back at Limerick. Won his maiden hurdle when stepping up in trip last time, and seemed to win cosily enough. Distant 3rd that day has won from 112 since and was in receipt of 7lbs that day, meaning Will The Wise looks potentially well treated over an extra 1.5f from a mark of 123 especially with a 5lbs claimer in the saddle. Likely needs to win to qualify for the Pertemps Final and everything looks in place to do so.
Subtotal137
22 February 2025
16:10 4:10 Kempton
Blow Your Wad
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-50
Blow Your Wad loves Kempton, having won 3 times from visits including the Grade 2 novice Chase on this card last year. A mark of 145 sees him carry top weight but potentially well handicapped having beaten horses rated 143 and 144 on his two C&D victories. Yard in strong form and he should hold every chance of improving his strong Kempton record.
15:00 3:00 Kempton
Miami Magic
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@2.88
Lose
-50
Penalties could make all the difference here, with Miami Magic getting 3 lbs off his two market rivals. His run behind Potters Charm last time is arguably the best form on offer (Celtic Dino back in 4th, soft ground excuse), and he won by 12L over C&D two starts back.
14:10 2:10 Newcastle
Gaboriot
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@15.00
Lose
-50
Ran really well in the Sefton on seasonal return, finishing 3rd over 2m5f with the winner now rated 13 lbs higher. Excuses at Doncaster since when making a poor error then being hampered at the business end, but shaped better again LTO stepped up in trip which should leave spot on for this. Won nicely on his only run at this sort of marathon trip, coming away to win by 3.5L over 32.5f from a mark of 126. Goes from 127 today for a yard that has a good crop of staying handicap chasers and knows how to get results.
13:50 1:50 Kempton
Rubaud
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.50
Win
75
Rubaud has stamina to prove but should have a real class edge in this field, being a former Grade 2 hurdle winner on multiple occasions. Pitched in at the deep end for both chase starts so far, and although this is technically the same grade, it looks a much easier test. Kempton being a speed test gives him a good chance of staying this 20f trip, and in receipt of weight from some of his rivals, he can make class tell.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-75
15 February 2025
15:37 3:37 Ascot
Pic DOrhy
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.00
Win
100
Pic D'Orhy won this cosily last year, taking his Ascot record to 3 wins and a place from 4 efforts over C&D. Similar field this year, with L'Homme Presse fresh from his Winter Millions victory, but Corbetts Cross also preps for his Gold Cup bid at a trip which is sure to be too sharp for him. For others this is a prep race but for Pic D'Orhy this is his Gold Cup and I'm sure his beleaguered trainer will have him ready for his life. I see no reason why he can't enhance his C&D record by claiming a repeat victory on ground which will suit him more than others.
15:15 3:15 Haydock
Fontaine Collonges
Daily Racing
25 EW
@23.00
Lose
-50
Royale Pagaille is keeping many of these out of the handicap and despite being back at his beloved Haydock might find the ground too sharp. His stablemate Fontaine Collonges is also best suited by heavy ground but does have winning form on good / soft, and with the forecast rain throughout the morning could get conditions to suit. Won handsomely here on reappearance, bolting up by 12L from a mark of 140 and didn't get the best of runs in the Welsh National since. That took her Haydock record to 2 from 3, with the one disappointment being in this race in 2023 when sent off 7/2 fav. She's underperformed in three attempts beyond 26f but is entered in the Grand National and trainer has a very good record in this race, winning it three times since 2014. I'm not convinced of the correlation between the trip and the three poor efforts yet, and as the outsider of the field she looks overpriced.
15:00 3:00 Ascot
Victtorino
Daily Racing
25 EW
@6.50
Win
165
Impossible to see Victtorino out of the frame at a track he loves, with 3 wins and a 4th (jumped poorly that day) in 4 runs over C&D. 3 lbs higher for his win last time and today's mark of 146 would be a career-high winning mark, but the yard is in strong form and could be in for a good day today.
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14:40 2:40 Haydock
Botox Has
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@5.00
Lose
-50
I think Botox Has can take all the beating in his bid for a repeat victory. I suspect this is an afterthought for connections of Beauport as he preps for the Grand National, having run pretty well from the front over hurdles last time. On the other hand, this will have been the main aim for BH, who has 2 wins from 2 efforts over C&D and should be fine on the quicker ground this year, having won a Grade 2 hurdle on good to soft in the past.
1 member found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 Ascot
Jour DEvasion
Daily Racing
25 EW
@13.00
Lose
-50
Those at the front of the market might yet prove to have loads in hand, but they're also at the top of the handicap and could be vulnerable. Jour D'Evasion has plenty of experience over hurdles but just the four starts in handicap company, unseating at the first on his only try here before form figures of 2-2-1, most recently beating subsequent winner Santos Blue by 4.5L when upped in trip for the first time in handicaps. Won well from the front that day, and there looks to be a serious lack of pace on offer here, which could help him to follow up from a 5lbs higher mark.
13:36 1:36 Wincanton
Burdett Road
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.10
Lose
-50
Drifted to a nice price for a race he really should win on all known form, having won the Greatwood Hurdle from a mark of 133 and then stepped into open Graded company when chasing home Constitution Hill and Lossiemouth at Kempton. I'm not convinced Golden Ace has shown anywhere near her best this season, and Burdett Road should be able to give her the weight and beating, dictating matters from the front to poach an easy Grade 2.
Subtotal65
14 February 2025
14:50 2:50 Kelso
Wise Eagle
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@2.00
Lose
-50
Looks to have loads in hand from an opening mark of 123, racking up two bloodless victories so far. His flat rating of 103 is well earned as his 2nd in a flat handicap from 102 LTO shows. Whilst the form of his wide margin maiden and novice hurdle wins is hard to weight up, just his flat form would suggest he has at least 10lbs (if not 20lbs) in hand from his opening mark.
Subtotal-50
09 February 2025
14:40 2:40 Navan
Thedevilscoachman
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.25
Lose
-50
A former winner of this race, Thedevilscoachman had been sent chasing since but returned to the smaller obstacles this time last year. Didn't show his best form but much better on reappearance in the Galmoy Hurdle when finishing well in 2nd behind a promising rival and should come on for that effort. Heavy ground will suit him more than most and he's official joint top rated on OR.
Subtotal-50
08 February 2025
15:48 3:48 Warwick
Colours On Canvas
Daily Racing
50 WINNBR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@9.00
Void
0
Colours On Canvas is 4 from 8 over hurdles and hasn't been seen since winning in October from a mark of 128. He's been given a 2 lbs rise for that effort and looks to be a 6-year-old on the upgrade who should be able to cope with his revised mark in a race without much pace on offer, which could see him get an easy time out in front. The yard had a winner yesterday, and I suspect others in the field might have different days in mind.
15:15 3:15 Warwick
Shakem Uparry
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@6.50
Lose
-50
Shakem Up'arry won the Plate at the Cheltenham Festival three starts ago from a mark of 143. Despite being an 11-year-old, I fancy he can still defy what would be a career-high mark of 147. I'm happy to forgive his Aintree run after his season would have peaked, and he fell early on reappearance at Cheltenham. He's a proper 20f horse, whereas plenty in this field are better over shorter or longer trips. On his Cheltenham win, he doesn't look poorly weighted in what is a much easier contest. A 5lbs claimer in the saddle will help, and conditions will suit for a yard still in decent form.
13:50 1:50 Newbury
Ballygrifincottage
Daily Racing
25 EW
@23.00
Lose
-50
Ballygrifincottage arguably never reached the same heights over fences as he managed in just 4 hurdles starts, which included finishing 4th in the Albert Bartlett at this trip. Switches to Harry Derham, who has a record of almost 50% with stable switchers first time in a handicap, and a mark of 132 on more suitable soft ground looks to give him every chance. Blinkers go on and the yard have found some form again recently - he looks a big prize.
Subtotal-100
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