c4stle

National Hunt follower who is more profitable on the flat…

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c4stle's Tips History

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18 December 2024
15:45 3:45 Ludlow

Falco Des Pins

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@11.00

Lose

-50

This jockey and trainer combination have won 3 of the 6 runnings of this race and are represented by the lightly raced Falco Des Pins, who pulled up on stable debut almost 6 weeks ago when incredibly weak in the market. This represents a drop into much calmer waters, and we've often seen how jockey experience counts for a lot in these amateur rider contests. I think he's been overlooked in the market and could come on markedly for his run last time, which was his first for almost a year and just his fourth career start.
14 December 2024
15:35 3:35 Cheltenham

Joyeuse

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.00

Lose

-50

Nicky Henderson won this in 2019 with Dame De Companie who went on to festival success and looks to have a strong chance here with Joyeuse for the same connections. Very lightly raced after just two hurdles starts and ran well on seasonal reappearance to finish 3rd behind two good horses when looking in need of the run. Stable in good form after a strong Friday and suspect a mark of 119 on handicap debut leaves plenty of scope for improvement and a bold bid today.
2 members found this comment useful
15:00 3:00 Cheltenham

Skyjack Hijack

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.00

Lose

-50

It takes a really good one to win at this trip without much racecourse experience and I think that's enough to oppose the Kim Bailey runner. The same can't be said of Skyjack Hijack who has had 10 runs over hurdles and seems to be improving each time, winning his last 6 in a row. A slick and quick hurdler, he's shown enough to suggest the step into Graded company won't be an issue and his stable are in red hot form (27% last 14 days).
2 members found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 Cheltenham

Etalon

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@12.00

Lose

-50

Etalon could as likely finish 1st as last having run like a drain twice in two starts this season. His trainer was talking him up as a potential Graded horse this year and he showed enough last year to suggest his revised mark of 137 is generous if on song. Looks no pace on offer here and he should get a very easy time of it out in front - the only question in my mind is whether he's ready for today or if the stable fancy they can exploit two poor runs with a low handicap mark in March.
2 members found this comment useful
14:05 2:05 Doncaster

Does He Know

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@8.50

Win

12

A competitive three-mile chase and the three at the top of the market all make appeal. However, Does He Know is the only one that's an each-way price but has a strong win possibility. Two runs this season have seen him finish 4th at Cheltenham, and he's been dropped 3 lbs back to a mark of 149, which saw him win the Grimthorpe over 3m2f here back in March. Cheekpieces retained, and with no significant front runners, he could dictate things from the front in conditions which will suit.
2 members found this comment useful
13:50 1:50 Cheltenham

Fugitif

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@6.50

Lose

-50

Fugitif isn't a fancy price, but I think he's more than a fair one to regain his crown from last year. Ran really well to finish 5th in the November Gold Cup from 2 lbs higher when clearly expected to come on for the run (went off 28/1) and goes here from a mark of 150. That's 1 lb below his winning mark in this race last year, and if improving for the effort LTO, I think he'll take all the beating with conditions to suit.
2 members found this comment useful
12:40 12:40 Cheltenham

Peaky Boy

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@2.62

Lose

-50

Team Henderson had a good Friday here at Cheltenham and that can continue into the weekend. Peaky Boy is very lightly raced but when he's made the racetrack he's always impressed, with two hurdles wins - both at this track - and then a cosy win on his first run over fences. Steps up in trip here to 24f for the first time under rules but he's a former p2p winner (beat another now with Henderson in the 132 rated Persian Time) and the extra distance is expected to suit. A mark of 137 could still be comfortably below his ceiling as he looks a horse for Graded novice races.
1 member found this comment useful
13 December 2024
15:35 3:35 Cheltenham

An Tailliur

Daily Racing

25 EW

@41.00

Lose

-50

Hasn't impressed in his three runs over fences this year and reverts to the smaller obstacles from a mark of 132. That's 7lbs lower than his 6th in the 2023 Pertemps and 4lbs lower than his run in the qualifier here. Ground will be fine and although he could be vulnerable to some more unexposed types, he's weighted to go really well and can hit the frame at a big price.
1 member found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 Cheltenham

Shakem Uparry

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@5.50

Lose

-50

There are horses here which look well handicapped but not at this trip of around 2m4f, with many better over further - Eldorado Allen, Dashel Drasher, Shan Blue. Shakem Uparry is a real 20f horse and won here in the Festival Plate back in March from a mark 6lbs lower. Sent off as favorite at Aintree next time from the same mark as today when finishing down the field, and makes his reappearance today with a strong record fresh having twice won on reappearance after 200+ days off the track. Conditions should be fine and a mark of 149 doesn't look beyond reach despite being a career high, especially in veterans company and down in grade.
1 member found this comment useful
13:50 1:50 Cheltenham

The Newest One

Daily Racing

25 EW

@9.00

Lose

-50

Chianti Classico is the class act in the field, having won in handicap company from a mark of 152 and is 5 lbs higher here. He would have to be a Grade 1/2 animal to win this. The Newest One has plenty of experience over fences in the past, but since a spell over hurdles, he's taken chase form to a new high, winning from a mark of 122 before finishing 4th from 5 lbs higher. Sam Twiston-Davies takes over from a claimer in the saddle and will be keen to add points to the lucrative jockey cup standings. A mark of 127 is just 1 lb above his highest successful hurdle mark, and he's likely to put up a bold show from the front at a track he's gone well at before.
1 member found this comment useful
12:40 12:40 Cheltenham

Caldwell Potter

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.10

Lose

-50

Caldwell Potter has drifted to odds against which should prove to be too big in this field. Despite only having half a novice hurdle campaign he comfortably brings in the best form, winning a Grade 1 novice hurdle in Ireland with the horse finishing 2nd placing again in Grade 1s subsequently so looks strong enough form - certainly stronger than the Grade 1 Jango Baie won. Won easily on chase debut for new connections and stable, jumping a little to his left but that shouldn't be a massive issue here. Has to concede 5lbs to his market rival but I suspect he'll prove there to be a bigger gulf in class than that.
12:10 12:10 Cheltenham

Wingmen

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@3.75

Lose

-50

This looks to be a choice between the limited English form and the limited Irish form on offer, and my preference is for the latter. That's Nice won easily on hurdles debut, beating a subsequent Listed winner by 1.5L (eased down), but I think there's every chance that the Wingman form will prove to be stronger, with the horse he beat on debut finishing 2nd in what looks a strong maiden hurdle at Punchestown next time. The top 4 in the market filled the top 4 places that day, which suggests it has some substance, and Gordon Elliott wouldn't be sending Wingman over the Irish Sea for nothing. An impressive P2P winner, he might be seen to best effect over further in time, but with just four running, he could turn this into a test off the front and should go well up the Cheltenham hill.
08 December 2024
13:50 1:50 Huntingdon

Protektorat

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@3.00

Lose

-50

Despite a Grade 1 penalty Protektorat is still the class horse at the weights and should have enough to win this. OR of 166 puts him 12lbs clear of Ginnys Destiny who bombed out on reappearance and needs to bounce back even in receipt of 6lbs. The Skelton team had a great Sunday and their weekend can get even better here.
07 December 2024
14:25 2:25 Sandown

Willmount

Daily Racing

50 WINNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@4.50

Void

0

A mark of 130 looks to be well below his potential ceiling, having bolted up in an ordinary looking maiden hurdle but then strongly fancied for the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle when pulling up. Hasn't been seen since but clearly has ability and I'd be shocked if he wasn't a Graded performer which should see him easily defy his opening mark.
1 member found this comment useful
14:07 2:07 Aintree

Gaboriot

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@5.50

Void

0

Gaboriot showed really well on seasonal reappearance when found too far back but finished well in 3rd. He's 2 lbs better off with the winner today (3 lbs out of the handicap), but having done most of his winning at trips over and above 24f, the step up in trip should really suit, as will the softer ground. Percussion should also go well at a bigger price, having run his first poor race over these fences LTO.
13:50 1:50 Sandown

Leau Du Sud

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@2.10

Win

55

The Skelton horse is on the drift with the JP horse being backed, but I think Leau Du Sud could be tailor-made for Sandown, having jumped well when disposing of a good form comfortably LTO. The Irish form has tended to be stronger in recent years, and Down Memory Lane had some good horses in behind last time, but many were on chase debut, and I'm happy to chance that the Skelton runner has more substance.
1 member found this comment useful
30 November 2024
15:20 3:20 Newcastle

Some Scope

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@13.00

Lose

-50

I don't think this looks like a deep race, and it's easy to dismiss many of those near the top of the market. My view is that this either goes to a progressive type or an older, well-handicapped horse, and there doesn't look to be much of either in this field. A chance is taken on Some Scope, who was sent off 13/2 2nd favorite on seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham last time in what looks like a much deeper race than this, ultimately never getting involved and being pulled up. Has had wind surgery since and needed his run last term, so I'm happy enough to forgive him that effort. If doing so, he looks like the potentially progressive sort in here that could spring a surprise en route to bigger prizes. Has had just 6 runs over fences and finished 2nd in the Grimthorpe from a mark of 125 last season, as well as picking up two wins from lower marks. Runs from 125 here and will appreciate the good ground. Win bet only due to the poor run last time and wind surgery, but should have a great chance of putting the effort LTO behind him.
1 member found this comment useful
15:00 3:00 Newbury

Remastered

Daily Racing

25 EW

@34.00

Lose

-50

Remastered is now an 11-year-old but has shown signs he retains all of his ability, having won two starts back from a mark of 140. That has seen him rise back to a mark of 145, which is just 1 lb below his highest winning mark. However, his record in this gives confidence that a big run can be expected. He fell in 2021 when he had the race at his mercy, then finished 0.5L 2nd in 2022 from a mark of 142. Pulled up last year but was in poor form through the second half of the previous season and looks to be in much better shape now despite his advanced years. His fall LTO came when still traveling strongly, and he won't mind the quicker conditions at all.
1 member found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 Newbury

Salver

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@9.50

Lose

-50

Missed the boat with Le Patron today, who was into open handicap company having won graded prizes as a novice last term. Salver was contesting top-level juvenile races, picking up two Grade 2s before finishing 3rd in the Triumph Hurdle behind Majborough and Kargese. Had Nurbergring in behind that day off level weights, with that rival winning the competitive Galway Hurdle by 7L from a mark of 139 since. Would mark Salver as a very good horse to win this on reappearance from 143, but the form book suggests he has every chance and the stable looks in good form.
1 member found this comment useful
29 November 2024
15:40 3:40 Newbury

Chantry House

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@13.00

Lose

-50

Chancing that the drop in class and return to Newbury - where he won on his only visit - can bear fruit for the 10-year-old Chantry House. Has a really good record fresh and showed enough last season without winning to suggest that a mark of 139 is underestimating him. Cheekpieces employed and the stable are in red-hot form. Whilst it's possible that a return to the Pertemps (finished 5th last year) is the long-term aim, I think early season is the time to catch him if fully tuned up for this as he'll be an 11-year-old come the spring.
15:05 3:05 Newbury

Strong Leader

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@1.91

Win

45

Strong Leader looks a penalty kick here, with his main market rival saving his best for the spring. Has to concede weight to the rest but they're good handicappers and I think Strong Leader is a proper Grade 1 horse from a yard in strong form.
13:20 1:20 Newbury

Ambiente Amigo

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.50

Lose

-50

Just the one hurdles start, but she sets a high standard on flat form, having been rated as high as 95 following a few good efforts in Listed company. Looked green on hurdles debut, and the form doesn't look much yet, but she still looks to have a class edge in this field if transferring her flat ability to the smaller obstacles.
28 November 2024
13:25 1:25 Taunton

In The Air

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@5.00

Lose

-50

In The Air has his sights lowered, having been sent off 7/2 favorite for a Class 3 handicap at the Cheltenham October meeting from a mark of 118. Same mark here today but reunited with a 5 lbs claimer with whom he won two starts back. With the stable operating at a 30% strike rate in the last 14 days, he can get his nose back in front down in grade.
27 November 2024
13:00 1:00 Wetherby

Skycutter

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@2.75

Lose

-50

Skycutter returns to the smaller obstacles having made his chase debut LTO, finishing 2nd to Rambo T in a three-runner race. Showed some good form over hurdles last year for new stable, winning from a mark of 115 (3lbs claimer) before finishing 3rd in the Morebattle from 6lbs higher. Down the field at Aintree on his final start and dropped 1lb as a result, but he's down in grade here and although joint top weight, has won both his races at this Class 4 level. Ground won't be an issue having won previously on heavy, and he can come on plenty for this chase start last time, which was his first run for 200+ days.
26 November 2024
14:00 2:00 Sedgefield

Clean Getaway

Daily Racing

50 WINNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@3.75

Win

137

Clean Getaway has been in flying form, winning a handicap chase over C&D three starts back before winning a pair of hurdles races at the same track. His chase win came from just 3lbs lower and the 3rd that day has since won a novice handicap (albeit only two runners) from 1lb higher. Same conditions and clearly in good form so could take some stopping at a track he clearly enjoys.
25 November 2024
21:26 Race 3 Remington Park

Mariahs Candy

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@8.00

Lose

-50

Has been racing over further of late but has some good form at 5f here, including a win and a 2nd this time last year. So the drop back to 6f won't be any harm to her chances. She's weighted to go well and can reclaim the winning thread.
14:00 2:00 Kempton

Shantou Express

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@4.00

Lose

-50

Shantou Express seemed to come on markedly for his reappearance when finishing a close 2nd to Getalead last time, 12L ahead of the 3rd. He was giving that rival 9lbs that day (with claim) and given that rival has since won again from a mark 6lbs higher he looks well treated here from just 4lbs higher. That still leaves him 8lbs below his last winning mark in June last year and he'll appreciate any good in the going description for a yard in flying form (31% last 14 days).
2 members found this comment useful
24 November 2024
23:00 Race 6 Del Mar

No Bad Beats

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@SP

Lose

-50

This looks an easy opportunity for No Bad Beats to get her nose in front after running a close 2nd on debut last time. That racecourse experience should stand her in good stead against a largely unraced field and could set a standard the rest aren't able to reach.
14:25 2:25 Punchestown

Spillanes Tower

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@9.00

Lose

-50

Has been overlooked in the market in favour of the Gold Cup types but this trip is short of 2m4f and we've seen the likes of Galopin be beaten at this sharp test first time up before. Spillanes Tower showed he can win at a trip further than this but he did plenty of winning at or below 2m4f last season (including novice Grade 1) and will handle the likely heavy ground better than most too. A proper middle distance contender this season in my mind, with JP having so many options at the longer staying trips, he can cause a small shock in this quality field.
1 member found this comment useful
13:50 1:50 Punchestown

Farren Glory

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@2.62

Lose

-50

Showed a high level over hurdles last year, and would have picked up two Grade 1 prizes if not for a bad fall in the Tolworth. Happy to forgive his final start at Leopardstown next time, and the fact he didn't make a racecourse after suggests not all was rosy at that time. Very promising on two chase starts, following home Inthepocket first time before walloping an average field at Naas LTO. Looks to have transferred his hurdles form to the larger obstacles, and on that basis, he's the one to beat here.
23 November 2024
15:40 3:40 Haydock

Fontaine Collonges

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 8.50 on 23/11 at 09:220.10 deduction for Le Milos@8.00 withdrawn at 14:55R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 7.50 x (1-0.10) = 7.75Best Odds Guaranteed SP 8.00 used instead of 7.75 BOG

@8.00

Win

210

Off since a below-par performance in the Classic Chase at Warwick, but that came only 18 days after her 14L win at Wetherby on Boxing Day on heavy ground. That came just 17 days after reappearance, and despite unseating that day, possibly things had caught up with her at Warwick. The trainer does really well with handicap chasers this time of year, and although a mark of 140 is 7lbs higher than her Roland Meyrick win, it doesn't look out of reach for a mare who is still relatively lightly raced for a 9yo. Has a handicap chase win over C&D already, that from a mark of 132, and won't mind the falling rain. Looks to be the main pace angle too and could be hard to peg back in sloppy conditions.
2 members found this comment useful
15:05 3:05 Haydock

Royale Pagaille

Daily Racing

50 WINNBNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@5.00

Win

200

His only defeat in 5 visits to Haydock (4 over C&D) came when 2nd to A Plus Tard in this race in 2021 on ground which looked to be too quick for him. He righted that when running out a comfortable winner of this race last year on soft ground. Despite the bigger field this year, I think there are doubts over plenty of them: Grey Dawning has had an interrupted prep and tends to need his first run; Hewick has the best recent form but won't like the ground; Limerick Lace will love the ground but form isn't yet at this level. The forecast rain and prospect of heavy ground at a track he loves will play to Royale Pagaille's strengths, and he can win this fresh for a 2nd year in a row.
2 members found this comment useful
14:30 2:30 Haydock

Jody Ted

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@26.00

Lose

-50

A really competitive and valuable handicap hurdle (£100k pot) and there are some in here who might yet be contesting Graded races this season, such as Kerryhill. Twig is of interest at a massive price, but the forecast rain and prospect of heavy ground has to be a negative. One that catches the eye at a fair each-way price is Jody Ted for Eoin Griffin, who was last seen sent off as the favorite for the competitive Leopardstown handicap chase last Christmas, won by Meetingofthewaters. Jody Ted lost his jockey early that day, but the money was down from a chase mark of 134, 4 lbs higher than today. Lightly raced over hurdles, but he did win two starts back (mark of 115) and has gone well fresh in the past. This is a big enough pot to focus the mind, and I'm sure connections aren't traveling from Ireland with a prep race in mind given there's £56k to the winner. Twice a winner on heavy ground, the forecast rain shouldn't hold any concerns at a track which so quickly turns testing. Weighted to go well in conditions which should suit.
2 members found this comment useful
13:50 1:50 Haydock

Iroko

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.88

Lose

-50

Iroko looks to be a class above this field with the form of his 2nd at the Aintree festival having been franked by Heart Wood (3rd) and Chianti Classico (4th) both winning impressively this season. Happy to forgive his Cheltenham 5th as he was rushed back from injury but even that bare form could be enough here in these conditions. Plenty of form on soft ground so rain shouldn't be an issue and he's gone well fresh in the past.
2 members found this comment useful
22 November 2024
19:38 Race 6 Aqueduct

Trade Secret

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.00

Lose

-50

Trade Secret has won twice here in the past, and formerly a winner at trips ranging from 6-8f. Hasn't reached the same heights recently, but 3rd last time was a step in the right direction. If building on that, she should have enough to take care of this field.
17 November 2024
15:30 3:30 Cheltenham

Dysart Enos

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@3.50

Lose

-50

She's undoubtedly well handicapped from a mark of 131, looking every inch a Graded hurdler likely to take some beating at a higher grade this season. Goes well fresh, will appreciate the quicker ground and won well on her only previous run here over hurdles. I can't see anything else in the field which looks to have 20lbs in hand and she should take all the beating.
14:55 2:55 Cheltenham

Does He Know

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@5.50

Lose

-50

Does He Know won this back in 2022 from a mark 2lbs higher (152) and went really well on reappearance to finish 4th over 25f here. The step up in trip will suit, as will the quicker surface, and without loads of pace on offer he can win this race for the second time for a yard in strong form.
14:20 2:20 Cheltenham

Third Time Lucki

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@8.00

Lose

-50

Happy to chance Fergal O'Brien having Third Time Lucki ready to roll first time up since joining his yard from Dan Skelton. He's been off for over 500 days but has gone well fresh and will appreciate the quicker ground. Has form figures here of 1-1-4 and is 8 lbs below his peak effort, so weighted to go well. Calico and Matata tie in closely, but I fancy it could set this up for the closing Third Time Lucki.
1 member found this comment useful
14:05 2:05 Fontwell

Glimpse Of Gala

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@7.00

Lose

-50

Just two chase starts prior to this, but I think she will be suited by the significant step up in trip to 3m4f, having shown no end of stamina when winning hurdles races at 24f / 25f. A mark of 123 is 9 lbs below her last winning mark, albeit she had a claimer in the saddle that day. She's won here in the past over shorter, but that came on good ground, so conditions won't be an issue.
1 member found this comment useful
13:45 1:45 Cheltenham

Walking On Air

Daily Racing

50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@51.00

Void

0

A win-only proposition after pulling up on his first start for a new stable, but he's well handicapped on hurdles form, with a mark of 134 being 4 lbs below his Pertemps Hurdle 5th at this track. He has had just two chase starts, but his first effort saw him finish 2nd to a subsequent Grade 2 winner, giving away 12 lbs. If accepting that was a poor enough Grade 2, that's strong enough form, and if coming on for his reappearance (and jumping better), he's no 50/1 shot and could spring a surprise.
1 member found this comment useful
13:10 1:10 Cheltenham

Maghlaak

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@19.00

Lose

-50

A considerable drift on the hurdles debutant Maghlaak, from 6s out to 18s in a place as I type. That might tell all you need to know, but I'm happy to chance that it's punters latching onto the top two in the market who have both raced over timber but without winning so far. Maghlaak was rated as high as 89 on the flat for Charlie Hills this summer - worth noting the really poor year that stable had - and despite the fact he only won once this summer, there's enough substance to his form to suggest his OR of 86 is more than fair. For comparison, that rating is 8lbs higher than Whimsy. Good ground is no issue and he has to concede hurdles experience, but 18/1 looks to overestimate his potential ability in this field.
16 November 2024
14:55 2:55 Cheltenham

Zeeband

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

Zeeband represents last year's winning connections, and although just a 7-year-old, he's not exactly unexposed after 16 hurdle starts. That being said, form has been taken to a new level recently, winning 4 times this year. Steps up to 3m for the first time but won over 2m7f and was unlucky to run into a Mullins handicap blot last time over 2m6f. 15 lbs above his last winning mark, but good ground and this extended trip give hope he can improve again from his 2nd placed finish LTO from a mark just 7 lbs lower, with the front two pulling well clear.
2 members found this comment useful
14:20 2:20 Cheltenham

Imagine

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@7.50

Lose

-50

Harry Derham has proven he can improve these horses from other yards and have them ready to roll first time, and I'm sure this has been a long time target for Imagine since leaving Gordon Elliot as part of the Caldwell dispersal sale. A Grade 2 novice Chase winner in Ireland, he signed off last season with a poor run behind Spillanes Tower, but still looks like a mark of 145 is a fair way below his ceiling. Finished 5th in the Martin Pipe on his only previous visit to Cheltenham, that coming on the new course. This old course is sharper and he's not short of speed, as evident when beating subsequent Grade 1 winner Inothewayurthinkin by 2.5L in a beginners chase last autumn. His Martin Pipe run came from a mark of 139 and he's 6lbs higher here but will likely be ridden forward (a positive on this good ground) and as a lightly raced 6yo he can defy this 6lbs higher mark on his first start for his new stable.
2 members found this comment useful
12:35 12:35 Cheltenham

East India Dock

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@3.75

Win

137

A pretty classy animal on the flat, rated as high as 90 for James Fanshawe. Won well on hurdles debut for new stable who have had so much success with their juveniles in the past. Will appreciate the good ground and I suspect will have too much class for this field.

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