Welshboy

Up for Parol was 3rd in last years Lanzarote off 129 and off 121 today with Will Featherstone taking off 10lb, he could be a cracking bet stepping up to 3m for the first time. The step up is interesting as he beat his very handy now-stablemate, Git Maker in his Irish point with Whacker Clan back in 3rd. Stamina should be there and whilst he may not have the speed of days gone by, this could work well over today's trip. At 12/1 he looks too big a price to ignore with firms paying 4 places.

Lewa House has a record of 1st and 2nd over course and distance and looks certain to be suited by conditions tomorrow. It'll be the first time he's dropped into the 70s on ORs and off 79, with Bruce Lynn taking off a potentially valuable 3lb, he looks treated to go very close. This years form saw him run Follow Charlie close on 2 Jan, that horse beating him again in March and now rated 15lb better than that first encounter. The trip will have stretched Lewa on his second run of 2024 and then finding Follow Charlie and one of Nick Alexander's too good at Ayr last time is no bad thing, given the ground wouldn't have been in his favour. No excuses for this one tomorrow, although its an open race, I would hope he shouldn't be out of the first 3.

Dutch Decoy is expected to come on a lot for his pipe opener in the Lincoln were the ground would have been too heavy. He was incredibly unlucky last year, either in terms of the ground (the quicker the better) or the draw (was in the car park when getting his favoured ground on more than one occassion). The ground is an unknown today but is currently good, so if it rides like that, the track, trip and race type should all suit and he appears to have a nice enough draw. He's consistent at HQ, finishing in the top 5 (and 6th in the 34 runner Cambridgeshire) on 3 of his 4 runs, so this looks a solid each way.

Diva Luna finished second in a point last October proving her liking for slow ground and I am taking the fact that Derek O'Connor took the ride as meaning she was there for an education rather than a hard ride. The fact she was thrown into a listed race on rules debut shows the regard in which she's held and Ben Pauling has had this race in mind for a while, bringing her into it fresh and hopefully ready to go. She's a cracking bet with Skybet at 13/2 ew 5 places in my opinion.

This is an open looking handicap but its hard to get away from the yard form of Muir and Grassick at the moment (1121 in the last fortnight including two winners on seasonal debut). This one has form for it too, winning over C&D off 2lb lower on last years seasonal debut. A repeat of that form should see him go close here and money back first 4 is a nice bit of insurance. He's my best bet today.

This looks a tricky race and Nivelle's Magic was in my tracker when it when it went the long way round at Lingfield last July but she's now 13lb higher and is yet to prove that she can win off as high as this. Fravanco has a good shout on his 2nd to Tortured Soul and Mr Boson has first time headgear but my choice as a decent ew play is Mrs Twig for the in form Grassick and Muir combo. She needs to show she can go well off a break but is reported to be in great nick and looks well treated off 62. Her under par runs have both been on soft and I would expect her to be challenging for the places and potentially a win tonight but also to come on for the run.

The move from Eve J-H to Ruth Carr seems to have done no harm to Barleybrown and he ran a cracking race behind a solid yardstick, Drakeholes over 7f in a classified at Newcastle recently. That was his first run on the AW and he took to it well and shaped as if the return to a mile would do the trick. He's drawn in 2 and the yard are still going well (>20% strike rate in last 2 weeks) and at around 11/2 4 places, he looks a great ew bet in a 10 runner field (Skybet). Happy to take the 7/1 on offer here for 3 places as well though and he's my bet of the day today. The biggest dangers may prove to be Shaka, who unseated when fav LTO and Ibiza Rocks, who at 16s looks an attractive ew bet with his mark having dropped a lot over the last year and now looking very well treated. I'll be having smaller plays on those two and a small combi tricast.

This looks a nice price as I'd make this one fav as he finished a couple of lengths ahead of the favourite from Keatleys in the Brocklesby. He raced prominently that day and the race suited closers so I think that run can be marked up and he ran green too, hanging at times, so should improve for the experience. I think the Burke horse will improve for this; his 2yo's are reported to be a bit behind this season and at 4/1, he looks short enough in the market. At the prices (365 are 5/2 boosted), Atherstone Warrior looks a nice bet. I think the 11/8 cover bet 2 places with the same firm is a very good bet.

I'm looking to take on (at least one of) the top 2 in the market here with bottomless ground likely at Chantilly today. Romantic Style has very solid form from the Bosra Sham on heavy ground and Charlie Appleby's horses are going well at the start of this season when sent on a mission. The Menusier horse is interesting and will go on the ground but I think she might come on for the run and the fav looks solid, but hasnt run on ground like this and is very short in the market. An ew at 13/2 looks a nice angle here.

I make James's Delight my nap today; I think his form has a really solid look to it winning first time out as a 2yo with an RPR of 88 shows a big touch of class and his subsequent form was solid even if he didn't progress as connections may have hoped. He was stepped up to 7f on his final run as a 2yo and although 5th didn't represent a great outcome, I thought he ran a good race and didn't see out the trip in the last furlong. He finished ahead of now 91 rated Blue Prince giving him 4lb so that gives the form a solid look. He certainly didn't appear inconvenienced by the soft ground and although the ground at Ponte is heavy today, he seems the least likely to flop on it, given the others are all either unproven or have already run poorly on heavy. Its a small field, but I like the way Ryan Moore got this one to quicken up before the stamina gave in LTO and I think back over 6f, he will get his redemption today.