Political Betting Odds - 50% Chance Electoral Commission Will Not Vote against The Government

The loud debate over the refurbishment of Boris Johnson's official Downing Street residence has reignited and betting sites have jumped on by offering odds on the outcome of the investigation.

According to some bookmakers there is a 57% chance that the electoral commission will decide offences were committed in the rumoured £200,000 refurbishment of the flat above 11 Downing Street

Electoral Commission to rule against the government betting odds

Will the Electoral Commission determine that any breaches were committed during the renovation of the Prime Minister's apartment?

**Odds probability include bookmakers overround edge - meaning percentages will add up to over 100%, this being the bookies edge - How bookmakers use odds

What's The Story?

The allowable £30,000 refurbishment cost has been disputed by some who claim that Johnson, who resides in the flat above 11 Downing Street rather than No 10, had spent considerably more than that - perhaps even as much as £200,000.

Other claims include a Conservative party donor and peer, Lord Brownlow, financing part of the surplus, while Johnson had investigated establishing a charitable trust to pay for repairs.

However, what seems to have happened is one bill was initially paid by the Cabinet Office, which was reimbursed by the Conservative Party, while another was paid in full by Brownlow.

The Electoral Commission launched an investigation in April, claiming there were "legitimate grounds" to suspect that offences may have been committed.

According to sources, the inquiry has now come to an end, with a draft of the report seen by Downing Street. It's still unclear what it says, though leaving bookmakers speculating with nearly a 50/50 market on the outcome.

The outcome could also affect the odds of Boris Johnson's tenure as the Prime Minister at the Next General Election.