Betting Odds Shorten for Joe Biden to Not See Out Full US Presidential Term After Humiliation In Afghanistan

The withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan was always going to be controversial but was expected to resonate well with voters, however, the swiftness of the collapse of the country has taken everyone by surprise, and it is showing President Biden in a poor light, it looks like his biggest test since he was inaugurated in January 2021.

Betting Odds Shorten for Joe Biden to Not See Out Full US Presidential Term After Humiliation In Afghanistan
  • President Joe Biden Under Pressure After Debacle Of Afghanistan
  • Bookmaker Cut Odds For Biden To Leave Office Early
  • Betting Exchanges Split 60/40 That The President Stays The Full Term

Afghanistan Withdrawal And Its Effect On President Joe Biden

The withdrawal of US troops was expected to be a vote winner and may still well be proved so, however, the swiftness of the fall of the US-backed Afghan government to the marauding Taliban forces was not predicted.

Daily we are seeing images of desperate locals fleeing the country as fighters tighten their grip on all areas of the country. 

President Joe Biden ultimately authorised the withdrawal with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson quoted as saying the US accelerated the current crisis. 

Donald Trump was, of course, vocal in his criticism of the Democratic President, "it is time for Joe Biden to resign in disgrace for what he has allowed to happen in Afghanistan"

Richard Nixon during the Vietnam war and Jimmy Carter when dealing with Iran both fell foul of US public opinion when it came to foreign policy decisions.

Nigel Skinner - OLBG Political Betting Expert

News organisations normally favourable to Joe Biden are questioning the moral validity of the decision to withdraw.

It remains to be seen the full effect this will have on Bidens presidency but leading bookmakers are on alert to cut the President's Exit date. 

Joe Biden Exit Date Betting Odds Percentage Chance
2025 4/9 69.44%
2022 5/1 14.53%
2024 5/1 14.53%
2023 8/1 11.31%
2021 14/1 6.67%

Joe Biden To Serve Full Term

Joe Biden like all presidents has a 4-year term in office, the 46th President assumed office in January 2021 at the age of 78 and from the get-go, his advancing years have been used as a stick to knock him by his critics.

There has been a lively "will he see out his full term betting market" since he got the top job in the western world, adding in the Afghan crisis has seen his odds to leave early shrinking. 

On the 7th of August Joe Biden To Serve A Full Term No was at an odds of 2.61 this has backed into the shorter odds of 2.27. 

Betting exchanges at the beginning of his Presidency in January 2021 had YES he would serve a full term at around 78% this is now down to around 66%. 

Whilst NO he will not serve a full term has gone from a high of around 55% to only just above 40%.

Joe Biden To Serve Full Term Betting Odds
Yes 8/15
No 5/4


US Presidential Odds 2024

The betting odds for the 2024 US Election still show Joe Biden as the favoured candidate however they like the rest of us have no idea if Joe Biden will even throw his hat in the ring.

He along with former President Donald Trump are quoted, with VP Kamala Harris splitting the pair. 

Potential Candidate Best Betting Odds Percentage Chance
Joe Biden 5/1 16.67%
Kamala Harris 6/1 14.29%
Donald Trump 7/1 12.50%
Ron De Santis 12/1 7.69%
Nikki Haley 20/1 4.76%
Mike Pence 25/1 3.85%

The dedicated OLBG blog on the 2024 United States Election race can be accessed here - US Presidential Odds Trends and History.

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