Many people bet based on headlines or hunches. I dig into research and market moves behind political odds & manager markets, so you can back decisions, not guesses.
- Nicola Sturgeon Steps down as First Minister, springing Life into the Betting on her replacement
- Angus Brown installed as favourite to replace her, with probability given at 50%
- Kate Forbes is next in the betting at 9/2, according to betting sites
With the surprise announcement on Wednesday evening from Nicola Sturgeon that she is standing down as the First minister of Scotland, Bookmakers have quickly adjusted the odds on who is likely to be her replacement.
Betting on the Next First Minister of Scotland at Smarkets has seen Angus Robertson quoted at just over Evens, representing a 50% chance of securing the position at the head of the Scottish government.
Next First Minister of Scotland Betting Odds
| Candidate | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Angus Robertson | 2.02 | 49.50% |
| Kate Forbes | 5.50 | 18.18% |
| Humza Yousef | 7.6 | 13.16% |
| John Swinney | 10 | 10% |
| Keith Brown | 12 | 8.33% |
| Michael Matheson | 12.5 | 8% |
| Joanna Cherry | 95 | 1.05% |
Scottish Referendum Betting
With a change at the top, it would also be worth a cautionary check on the Independence referendum betting odds to see if there are any changes there.
Over the past 12 months, it has looked less and less likely that any referendum would take place prior to 2025, with betting odds on the event suggesting a mere 10% chance a vote would take place before that date.
Year of Next Scottish Referendum Betting Odds
| Date | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 or Later | 1.13 | 88.50% |
| 2024 | 32 | 3.12% |
| 2023 | 20 | 5% |
