Best Free NFL Picks
Today's free NFL picks from OLBG's knowledgeable tipsters are listed on this page and the most popular picks attracting the most confidence are highlighted.
The selections can be for a variety of popular NFL markets including Money Line (Win Match), Point Spread, Game Totals, Winning Margin, Double Result, First Touchdown Scorer and more.
Along with each highlighted selection, you will find the event date and kick-off time, the current odds, the total number of tips for the selection and the total number placed on the betting market outcomes.
The confidence percentage indicates the tip strength on this market and along with the current odds and theoretical chances of winning a 1 to 5 star (5 being the best), the Value Rating is flagged to indicate a possible value bet.
To view all the predictions for the match just click on the selection shown and you will be transferred to the event page showing all the game tips.
At the top of the screen, you will see the Best Tipster's Tip which is from the tipster showing the best profit figures for American Football tips over the last 12 months.
Along with each game prediction, you will see the tipster profit performance stats for the last 7 days for the current form, 30 days and 12 months. The annual strike rate highlights consistency levels and any current hot streaks are flagged.
In addition to the free NFL picks on this page, we have an extensive range of NFL previews to assist with your NFL bets. Previews of the AFC, NFC and Super Bowl can be found in the Insights Section on OLBG:
How to place a bet on today's free NFL Picks
To place a bet on the NFL picks that take your fancy just tap on the 'Add' to betslip tab next to the selections and they will be stored on your betslip until you are ready to place your NFL bets.
If you like playing multiple bets then you can add as many perm selections as required until you are happy with your numbers.
If you are new to NFL betting or just want to check out the latest bookie promos and offers then check out our Best Bookie For Betting On The NFL Guide which can help get new bettors started and maximise your NFL betting needs if you are a regular NFL bettor.
When you are happy with your betslip selections then view which bookmakers are offering the best odds for the picks in your betslip by checking out the odds comparison table at the top of the screen.
Select your preferred bookie and you will be transferred to their site with your betslip selections already filled without the need to find them again. Just add your stake and best of luck with your NFL selections.
How often do NFL favourites win?
Combining NFL favourites in accumulators (parlays) may be a profitable way to go, however, a question that is regularly asked is How often do NFL favourites win? so here are some statistics to help you find the answer to that question.
From the beginning of the 2015-16 season up until the end of the 2024-25 season, the win percentage of favourites ranged from as little as 61% in both the 2022-23 & 2023-24 seasons to as high as 70% during the 2017-18 season.
The following table shows the favourite and underdog statistics, only games with an outcome are included and only games when there was a favourite are included:
| Season | Games | Fav | Fav % | Dog | Dog % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | 264 | 165 | 63% | 99 | 38% |
| 2016-17 | 264 | 173 | 66% | 91 | 34% |
| 2017-18 | 264 | 185 | 70% | 79 | 30% |
| 2018-19 | 260 | 170 | 65% | 90 | 35% |
| 2019-20 | 265 | 172 | 65% | 93 | 35% |
| 2020-21 | 268 | 176 | 66% | 92 | 34% |
| 2021-22 | 284 | 179 | 63% | 105 | 37% |
| 2022-23 | 282 | 171 | 61% | 111 | 39% |
| 2023-24 | 285 | 175 | 61% | 110 | 39% |
| 2024-25 | 284 | 181 | 64% | 103 | 36% |
Top Five Performing Favourites
For games between the 2015-16 and 2024-25 seasons, these are the top five performing teams when they are favourites to win:
- Kansas City Chiefs (115-151 76%)
- Houston Texans (45-62 73%)
- New England Patriots (87-121 72%)
- Green Bay Packers (76-108 70%)
- Minnesota Vikings (71-102 70%)
Three teams fall under the 50% win rate mark when favourites, St Louis Rams only have a 33% win rate (2-6), San Diego Chargers with 42% (5-12) and Jacksonville Jaguars have a 49% win rate (27-55) so have not been the most reliable teams to wager on when favourites.
Is it better to bet on the underdog? In terms of 'Giant Killers', there are only two teams who have played thirty games or more as the underdogs between the seasons that we are looking at and have gone on to win over 50% of those games as the dogs. Those are the Pittsburgh Steelers who have won 39 from 74 games, a win rate of 53% and the Kansas City Chiefs who have won 17 from 30 as underdogs, a win rate of 57%, those are very good figures against the favourites so it is worth watching out for them being picked by our expert NFL tipsters when they are the underdogs.
Points Scored - Totals & Averages
When you consider the number of variables, from players missing from being on the injury list to different matchups and different game conditions just how consistent the point totals have been over the season.
Over the last ten seasons, the average number of points in a game has ranged from only 43.63 to 49.49 and if you ignore the 2020-21 then that range would be 43.63 to 46.55 which is no difference at all!
The 2020-21 season did fall out of line with the others, the numbers were up with an average of 49.49 points per game, however, it was not your ordinary season with pre-season cancelled, the international games cancelled, players allowed to opt out of playing without punishment which sixty-six players took up and either no fans in the stadium or a largely reduced number of fans.
The reduction of fans seemed to help the visiting teams, their average number of points was up to 24.66 for that season, and the highest in the previous five seasons was 22.83 so it was well above that average.
| Season | Home Points | Home Average | Away Points | Away Average | Game Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | 6,283 | 23.53 | 5,856 | 21.93 | 45.46 |
| 2016-17 | 6,505 | 24.36 | 5,707 | 21.37 | 45.74 |
| 2017-18 | 6,169 | 23.10 | 5,480 | 20.52 | 43.63 |
| 2018-19 | 6,500 | 24.34 | 5,929 | 22.21 | 46.55 |
| 2019-20 | 6,107 | 22.87 | 6,096 | 22.83 | 45.70 |
| 2020-21 | 6,680 | 24.83 | 6,633 | 24.66 | 49.49 |
| 2021-22 | 6,840 | 24.00 | 6,289 | 22.07 | 46.07 |
| 2022-23 | 6,549 | 23.06 | 5,956 | 20.97 | 44.03 |
| 2023-24 | 6,658 | 23.36 | 5,825 | 20.44 | 43.80 |
| 2024-25 | 6,882 | 24.15 | 6,233 | 21.87 | 46.02 |
NFL - Team Averages
Below is a table that details every team over the last nine seasons, the average number of points they have scored, the average number of points they have given up, and the average number of points in each game they have featured in.
The table is ordered by the highest average number of points in a game down to the least average number of points in a game.
| Team | MP | GF (Ave) | GA (Ave) | MG (Ave) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | 171 | 19.18 | 16.20 | 35.37 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 174 | 17.64 | 16.83 | 34.47 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 169 | 17.04 | 16.95 | 33.99 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 189 | 19.04 | 14.57 | 33.60 |
| Green Bay Packers | 176 | 17.39 | 15.90 | 33.29 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 166 | 15.18 | 17.97 | 33.15 |
| Carolina Panthers | 168 | 16.18 | 16.60 | 32.78 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 167 | 16.53 | 16.06 | 32.59 |
| New England Patriots | 177 | 19.04 | 13.40 | 32.44 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 167 | 16.16 | 16.20 | 32.36 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 168 | 16.08 | 15.99 | 32.08 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 173 | 17.10 | 14.98 | 32.08 |
| Tennessee Titans | 171 | 16.04 | 16.02 | 32.06 |
| Detroit Lions | 169 | 14.72 | 17.33 | 32.05 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 171 | 16.74 | 15.19 | 31.92 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 176 | 15.20 | 16.31 | 31.51 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 174 | 16.68 | 14.74 | 31.43 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 179 | 16.45 | 14.92 | 31.37 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 161 | 16.73 | 14.60 | 31.33 |
| Cleveland Browns | 167 | 13.72 | 17.53 | 31.26 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 171 | 15.05 | 15.89 | 30.95 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 171 | 16.24 | 14.63 | 30.87 |
| Miami Dolphins | 166 | 13.95 | 16.91 | 30.86 |
| Houston Texans | 174 | 14.18 | 16.45 | 30.63 |
| Washington Commanders | 169 | 14.11 | 16.41 | 30.51 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 169 | 13.56 | 16.85 | 30.41 |
| Buffalo Bills | 177 | 15.93 | 14.46 | 30.39 |
| New York Jets | 163 | 12.90 | 17.42 | 30.31 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 173 | 16.72 | 13.53 | 30.25 |
| New York Giants | 167 | 13.40 | 16.81 | 30.21 |
| Chicago Bears | 166 | 13.77 | 15.07 | 28.84 |
| Denver Broncos | 168 | 13.77 | 14.60 | 28.36 |
Monday Night Football - An Introduction
As it says on the tin, Monday Night Football is a national live TV game from the NFL which is played on a Monday Night!
Since the 1970 season, this has been a regular fixture in the NFL, between 1970 & 2005 those games were screened live on ABC, however, since September 2006 they have been switched to ESPN.
We will be looking back at the outcome of the games since the start of the 2014 season to see which teams perform well under the extra scrutiny of the live cameras and which do not as well as other factors.
Since the start of the 2014-15 NFL season, every single franchise has appeared in a Monday Night Football game at least five times with some having appeared in as many as seventeen.
Monday Night Football - Top Performing Franchises
Not a single team has a 100% record, but we head to Pittsburgh for the team that comes the closest and the Steelers who love an MNF game, since the start of the 2014-15 season their record is 13-2.
Top Five MNF Franchises since 2014+
- 87% (13-2) Pittsburgh Steelers
- 79% (11-3) Kansas City Chiefs
- 78% (7-2) Atlanta Falcons
- 78% (7-2) Tennessee Titans
- 75% (9-3) Green Bay Packers
Had you backed those five teams alone on the Moneyline since the start of the 2014 season with £10 stakes, you would have been showing a profit of +£313.43 from a total bet of £590.
Worst Performing MNF Teams?
There are a couple of teams worth mentioning here who do not tend to do great, both the Browns & Colts have 2-7 records meaning they win only 22% of their MNF games.
Monday Night Football - Results by Week
Below is how the outcomes of the MNF have been since 2014 depending on which week of the season it is, Week 1 has many more games as the season usually starts with an MNF doubleheader.
| Week | Games | Home | Home % | Home P/L | Away | Away % | Away P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 11 | 69% | +75.10 | 5 | 31% | -64.01 |
| 2 | 12 | 4 | 33% | -44.60 | 8 | 67% | +86.10 |
| 3 | 12 | 4 | 33% | -59.76 | 8 | 67% | +51.61 |
| 4 | 12 | 8 | 67% | +2.85 | 4 | 33% | -37.60 |
| 5 | 10 | 6 | 60% | -13.70 | 4 | 40% | +12.74 |
| 6 | 10 | 7 | 70% | +15.25 | 3 | 30% | -43.70 |
| 7 | 11 | 7 | 64% | +10.92 | 4 | 36% | -28.40 |
| 8 | 11 | 8 | 73% | +22.18 | 3 | 27% | -67.90 |
| 9 | 10 | 4 | 40% | -35.36 | 6 | 60% | +15.09 |
| 10 | 10 | 3 | 30% | -41.84 | 7 | 70% | +131.00 |
| 11 | 10 | 4 | 40% | -44.07 | 6 | 60% | +8.01 |
| 12 | 10 | 3 | 30% | -51.53 | 7 | 70% | +50.90 |
| 13 | 10 | 4 | 40% | -40.90 | 6 | 60% | +47.11 |
| 14 | 11 | 5 | 45% | +13.53 | 6 | 55% | +47.23 |
| 15 | 11 | 6 | 55% | +68.30 | 5 | 45% | -13.18 |
| 16 | 10 | 6 | 60% | -0.09 | 4 | 40% | -11.20 |
| 17 | 3 | 2 | 67% | +3.70 | 1 | 33% | -15.90 |
| 18 | 8 | 2 | 25% | -56.10 | 6 | 75% | +9.00 |
*The Home & Away P/L (Profit/Loss) columns are calculated to £10 stakes.
NFL Schedule
Here's a month-by-month look at the NFL year, listing the key events and highlighting when to expect NFL future picks for the new NFL season ahead and NFL match predictions during the active months of the regular season and post-season playoffs and right through to the Super Bowl.
January
- Regular Season Concludes: The 32 NFL teams across the 8 divisions in the AFC and NFC complete their final regular season fixtures in early January. Fourteen teams, the four divisional winners and three wild card qualifiers from each conference make it through to the end-of-season playoffs. The six wild card teams will be those who finished with the best win/loss records despite not winning their division. The seven AFC teams and NFC teams are seeded 1 to 8 respectively in their conference, the seeding is determined by number 1 being the divisional winner with the best win/loss/tie record, numbers 2, 3 & 4 being the remaining divisional winners and numbers 5, 6 & 7 being the wild card qualifiers with the seeding being decided by best win/loss/tie record and head to head results (if needed).
- Wild Card Weekend: The Wild Card weekend closely follows the regular season end with three of the AFC Divisional winners taking on the three AFC teams receiving a wild card place and three of the NFC Divisional winners taking on the three NFC teams receiving a wild card. The AFC team and NFC team finishing with the best win/loss record and winning their respective division receive an automatic bye into the Divisional Play-Off round. The three wild card pairings for both the AFC & NFC are shown in the table below, the home team in each pairing is the best-seeded.
| 6th Seed (2nd placed Wild Card) | @ | 3rd Seed (3rd best Division Winner) |
| 7th Seed (3rd placed Wild Card) | @ | 2nd Seed (2nd best Division Winner) |
| 5th Seed (best Wild Card) | @ | 4th Seed (4th best Division Winner) |
- Divisional Play-Off Round: The six successful teams from the Wild Card Weekend make it through to the Divisional Play-Offs Round and they are joined by the number 1 seeds from the AFC & NFC who received a Wild Card Weekend bye for finishing the regular season with the best win/loss/tie record. The pairings for the Divisional Play-Offs are shown in the table below, the lowest remaining seed plays @ the best seed and so on:
| 2nd lowest seed | @ | 2nd best seed |
| Lowest seed | @ | 1st seed (best division winner) |
- Conference Championship Weekend: One step away from the Super Bowl for the AFC & NFC Divisional Play-Off Round winners who now meet to decide the NFC Championship and AFC Championship, winners. The best-rated seed remaining in both conferences will be @ home. Who will make it through to contest the Vince Lombardi Trophy? See what the best-performing OLBG tipsters predict over on the Best NFL Tipsters page.
February
- Pro Bowl Game: Usually takes place the weekend before the Super Bowl and is an All-Star Pro Bowl game featuring an AFC team against a team representing the NFC. Participating players are invited to play via nominations by fellow NFL colleagues, players, coaches and NFL fans voting on the NFL website. Players selected to appear in the All-Star Pro Bowl game who subsequently feature in the following weekend's Super Bowl do not participate in the Pro Bowl game in case of injury. A coach is selected from each conference to manage their respective conference All-Star team.
- Super Bowl: The most prestigious NFL game in the USA is the pinnacle of the NFL season with the AFC champions meeting the NFC champions to see who will lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy and be crowned Super Bowl winners.
March
- NFL Player Trading: The dust has settled after the Super Bowl which draws the NFL season to a close and March signals the annual 'clear out' and NFL team roster changes with the Player trading period commencing. Some players will become 'Free Agents' if contracts are not renewed and 'trades' are also agreed upon between teams who may give up 'NFL Draft' round selections which can be for several upcoming seasons to secure a prime target. For example, ahead of the 2022 NFL season, four experienced Quarterbacks (Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson) were traded in exchange for NFL Draft Round Selections over the next few seasons. 'Player Trades' also take place by way of a straight exchange without any Draft Selections as part of the deal.
April
- NFL Draft: The eagerly awaited annual Draft Selection process is an exciting time for NFL fans to see if their team can secure a potential future NFL Hall of Fame player who may revive the team's fortunes. The NFL Draft is the primary opportunity for NFL teams to recruit new players to their roster, players on the draft must have finished high school at least three years ago and the majority will have played College Football although this is not a prerequisite. Players can also be selected from the Canadian Football League (CFL) and Arena Football League (AFL), leagues which are covered in the NFL picks on OLBG. The event takes place over three days with a round taking place every day, the order of picks is determined in descending order by how well the 32 teams performed the previous season. The team with the worst record will have the 1st pick (considered to be the best choice) and the team winning the Super Bowl will have the final pick (32nd) of the round. Teams can trade allocated NFL Draft Round Selections as mentioned above. To see the most recent annual draft head over to the NFL website draft picks section.
May
- New Season Schedule Released: The fixture schedule for the upcoming NFL regular season is released, and some notable dates will be announced in advance of the full 18-week regular season schedule. These include the NFL International Series which will see games taking place across the pond in London (NFL London Series) at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and Wembley in October, plus a new country was added to the roster for 2022 with a game taking place in Germany in November.
July
- Preseason Training Camp: Teams tend to begin their preseason training around late July.
August
- Pro Football Hall of Fame Game: Preseason practice matches usually commence in early August along with the Pro Football Hall of Fame game which is an annual NFL exhibition game in Ohio. The match coincides with the NFL Hall of Fame Induction Ceremonies. The participating teams are announced around Super Bowl week (February) along with the newest names to be inducted into the NFL Hall of Fame.
September
- New Regular Season Commences: Early September sees the start of the new NFL regular season games with the reigning Super Bowl winners kicking off the new season. For a full list of the NFL season schedule head over to the NFL website schedules section.
October
- NFL International Series: Six NFL teams travel across the pond in October with three scheduled NFL regular season games taking place in London at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and Wembley. The NFL London Games grow in popularity year on year with high demand for match tickets resulting in fast sellouts at the Box Office.
November
- NFL International Series: For the first time in November 2022, European NFL fans had the opportunity to watch a regular season NFL game in Munich, Germany.
- Thanksgiving Day: A regular slot in the NFL regular season schedule now sees three NFL games screened live on Thanksgiving Day.
Luke Bradshaw Lee and James Banting collaborate to provide comprehensive American Football coverage on OLBG by creating and maintaining our NFL content including for the NFL Predictions page.
*Statistics only include regular season games between the 2014-15 and the 2024-25 seasons, the home team is the official team listed as hosting and closing odds and lines are used in the figures.
