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In profit on Horse Racing for 6 of the previous 6 months
WIN @
Boasts 3 wins from 3, first on the AW and then twice on heavy ground, latterly at Listed level in France. The form of his Newmarket win two starts back looks strong, with the 2nd and 3rd both winning next time, and his sire was a Group 1 winner on good ground in Australia so the quicker surface could yield further improvement at a trip he's proven over.
EW @
Competitive handicap with the last two winners coming from the Lincoln to win here next time, and only 3 have won this without a prep run since 2011 so fitness is clearly a big positive. Navagio caught the eye in the Lincoln when short of room toward the finish, still running well to finish 3rd from todays mark of 96. That was on soft ground but he's equally adept on a quicker surface and his low draw looks ideal with loads of pace nearby. Can make amends on his 2nd UK start.
WIN @
I napped White Birch for this race when it was abandoned due to an untraceable track, and with most of the field standing their ground I don't see any reason to abandon him. His form lines are above those most of his rivals have posted, having finished 2nd in the Dante and 3rd in The Derby over 12f. His only win last season came in the Group 3 Ballysax at Leopardstown in heavy ground, and although that form isn't at the same level it shows he can go well fresh and will handle the poor conditions better than most.
Profits calculated to a 10 point stake.
Value Rating is based on comparing the odds of a selection to the theoretical probability of winning based on the percentage of tips for it.