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+1092 profit on Horse Racing in the last year
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Harry Fry looks to have campaigned this horse superbly to get the horse here on a winning mark and hopefully the plan will be executed here. Even the better ground than he's been racing on of late is in his favour and the horse has shaped as though this step up in trip should be ideal. The 2nd to Dysart Enos was great experience of the course and he certainly handled it well. Looks to have a huge chance from near the bottom of the handicap.
Daily Racing
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This horse has improved for a wind operation, has good form when placed in a C&D run, and has been clearly campaigned with this race in mind (which is fairly essential). The C&D 2nd was in a novice chase where he was no match for the winner but was ahead of several horses that were rated higher than the mark he races off here. Trip and ground are ideal, and Sean Bowen gets on really well with him. Should certainly outrun his odds, I would suggest.
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The roll call of previous winners of the race at Navan, which this one won last time out, is of a really high calibre. The fact this horse won so easily just backs up that this is a horse of huge potential. As per usual in this race, there are several with one race and one win, but quite often they hack up against horses of limited ability. I much prefer a profile such as this one, whereby a horse has beaten others that have already proven to be useful. The market support last time out also shows this horse has plenty of confidence behind him, and the 11/2 looks very fair to me.
Daily Racing
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Sixandahalf is the hot favorite here, but there's reason to take her on with this 13/2 shot. The trainer of the favorite isn't really firing, and it's interesting that the selection was rated around 10lb higher than her on the flat, and she gets 10lb here. She's been 2nd on her last 4 starts but has been finishing her races well and is shaping as though she could be well suited by the uphill climb to the finish to hopefully pick them off late on.
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This horse was expected to run in the Arkle, but Gordon Elliott is no mug, and he's clearly seen that this race over a longer trip offers a better opportunity, and he could well be right. Firefox's sole run at the course was a staying on 3rd in the Supreme, and form from that race is worth following year in, year out. The ground was similar to today's when he easily won his beginner's chase, so the drying ground won't be a problem for him, although it could well be for some of his market rivals.
Daily Racing
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The trainer of this one has only had one previous runner in this hot handicap, and that was placed. So that's a positive for this horse, which has a very useful 5lb conditional jockey booked for the first time. The horse has clearly been campaigned with this race in mind for his last few runs. He's got some great form when placed and winning in strongly run big fields, where both races have produced stacks of winners further back.
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Teahupoo is the hot favorite here, and a horse I really like. But at around 6/4, he can be passed over on value grounds since he's simply a much better horse when the ground is much softer. Monmiral is the winner of last year's Pertemps, which is always one of the most competitive races of the week. That will put him in good stead for this race over the same course and distance. Nicholls' horses haven't been firing for much of this season, but they are running much better now. The recent runs in small fields can be glossed over since he's a much better horse in these big fields.
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This horse was running well enough in last year's race until slipping after jumping a fence when sent off 20/1 on ground that would've been a little softer than ideal. He comes here off a 6 lb lower mark and yet is available at a bigger price (25/1) but is of real interest having been given a lovely prep run last time out when showing a lot more in first-time cheekpieces. The jockey was keen not to get the horse too close in that race, and there were plenty of clues that the trainer could have a well-handicapped horse on his hands now.
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Value Rating is based on comparing the odds of a selection to the theoretical probability of winning based on the percentage of tips for it.
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