JackpotRod

I'll get you an odds on shots beaten, but also give you some long odds winners with hopefully some insightful reasoning to help you to decide whether to follow me in or not. Back all my own selections with my own cash.

Estimated Prizes
this month

£15

Estimated Prize money
this month

JackpotRod's Tips History

18 May 2024

16:10 4:10 Newbury

Under The Twilight

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@15.00

Lose

-50

Last run has taken some boosts with 4 of the top 6 winning or placing since, so she could go well off the back of that career high RPR. The main concern to her chances are being dropped in off a lack of pace, but she does sit close to the top of the speed ratings here and did place from midfield over course and distance earlier in her career. She’s got something to prove nudged up to this class, but that does ease her weight carry from 9st10lbs down to 8st11. It could be a lack of pace allows her to sit a little closer to it, and overall I think she’s a good price, especially if she can improve for the seasonal reappearance. A 01131 between May and June looks another plus.

1 member found this comment useful

15:00 3:00 Newbury

Poniros

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@21.00

Win

Quite a few of these look well handicapped and can take steps forward, but this one looks overpriced enough for a play. Not much in his dams pedigree to suggest he wants this trip, but being by Golden Horn he did well over it last time on seasonal debut. He chased home an 88 rated horse to within a length under a 7lb penalty, so the bare face of that alone suggests he’s well handicapped also running off 88. Slight concern for a glut of pace here meaning he won’t get a solo in front, but in an open race I still think he’s overpriced.

1 member found this comment useful

14:40 2:40 Newmarket

Gorak

Daily Racing

25 EW

@10.00

Win

Last run has worked out well, with two in front winning since, Gorak is hard to ignore here for me. He’s dropped a couple of lbs for that seasonal debut too, and if he runs anywhere near last seasons peak efforts he can be considered well treated off a mark of 95. Most notably he finished 4th in a Group 3, and his last win was around this time last year, albeit off a mark of 83. He had a bit of a line passage on his aforementioned reappearance effort, so in many ways you can upgrade that run. Drawn high, he should be around some pace on that side which is generally a better place to be here, having been drawn 1 last time only to see two high drawn horses in 1st and 3rd.

1 member found this comment useful

17 May 2024

15:15 3:15 York

Bright Thunder

Daily Racing

25 EW

@10.00

Lose

-50

Bright Thunder, with just the one run under her belt. She was an easy winner at Haydock when learning on the job. Whilt the horse in behind has done nothing for that form since, the horse 17L back in 4th has chased home Lokana since, and that horse had previously finished only a couple of lengths behind Spiritual last season which knits some form nicely enough into her chance. She's entitled to take a big step forward from that effort, so I think you can take a chance on this half sibling to the relatively smart Iconic Moment.

1 member found this comment useful

14:45 2:45 York

Andaleep

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Lose

-50

The Kubler's have Buick booked on Andaleep who is clearly one of the most exposed in the field as an 8 year old. With Buick aboard they are 5/10 a place in the last year, and at the track the trainers are 4/5 a place, winning twice, in that period. The horses last turf win was over course and distance in July last year off 5lbs lower than this, though he did win by a few lengths. A lack of pace concerns overall from a wide draw, but if Buick can make the most of him he shouldn't be stopping as he does get further. His last two turf efforts have been terrible, so he comes with risks in that sense, but he's been running well on the AW, and his latest 3rd running on strong from the rear was impressive enough to take a small chance in an open race.

1 member found this comment useful

14:15 2:15 York

Miss Lamai

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@13.00

Win

Miss Lamai did enough wrong on her first start to be even more impressed with the way she won, rather missing the break and having to scythe through the field early before sticking to the task gamely. The horse she beat by a few lengths was the same horse that finished behind Miss Rascal and she chased home a few of the principles in here eye catchingly when away poorly on debut. So on balance I think you can mark up that run from Miss Lamai who was drawn high and away from most of the field with a split in the stalls which probably didn’t help her get away. If she breaks on terms, and copes with different ground, I think she’s a fair price with that form in the book.

1 member found this comment useful

16 May 2024

16:15 4:15 York

Mon Na Slieve

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@17.00

Lose

-50

Could and should be folly taking on Big Evs, with possibly the only chink in his armour being he’ll likely encounter new ground here. He didn't go with the verve he showed elsewhere when pitched in against his elders here, which is also surely a slight negative for his want for this track. I did think Mon Na Slieve could be worth a play back here. He won well here in a good time on debut which looks overlooked in the market as his form tailed off. He did beat Kylian that day who is a hard to back 4/1 in this, so on that alone he looks a big rice. He could be the one to be dragged through the race by Big Evs, and assuming he can stay off an inevitably strong pace I wonder if anything will be pegged back which just makes him overpriced in my eyes.

1 member found this comment useful

14:45 2:45 York

Al Mubhir

Daily Racing

25 EW

@9.00

Lose

-50

Only once in the last 20 renewals has this race gone to a horse rated below 96, so that's a trend I think is worth following after a long look at this race, and I wonder if Al Mubhir can follow up his decent effort last time running down a runaway Miss Cantick. I think that could end up being better form than it appears, and drawn low here Marquand could go the shortest way round this awkward track. If he can latch onto the pace likely to be set by the well backed Point Lynas he could end up stamping his class on the field even if he is handicapped to the hilt. He travelled strongly into his reappearance effort and there is a high chance he takes a decent step forward for that effort having done so 2nd time up last season when notching his only win of the season.

1 member found this comment useful

14:15 2:15 York

Good Earth

Daily Racing

25 EW

@26.00

Lose

-50

2 runs this season have been poor, but one was on the AW, on which he is 1 from 26, and the other on soft ground on which he has a poor record overall despite on win at a lower level. 122 in big field 6f handicaps here is also a major plus, as is the fact he's drawn on the side of the likely front runner Tees Spirit. For one that does see out 6f I think he should be staying well enough off a feather weight. His record on Good or better last season over 5f reads 211, and overall 4123211, so the return to better ground is again a positive. So lots of positives for one at a decent price in a wide open race where he could just be out classed, though this race has gone to horses down the bottom in 2 of the last 3 renewals.

1 member found this comment useful

15 May 2024

15:45 3:45 York

Classical Song

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@5.50

Lose

-50

Looks as stoutly bred as the short priced Fav who could be hard to beat but is turned out quickly enough to have some doubts. Gosden has won 7 of the last 13 renewals, but only 1 had their last run at Newmarket less than 2 weeks prior. She’s all the rage, and rightly so visually, and the time appears to stack up nicely enough too. She’s not taken on lightly, but Classical Song has all the fancy entries over extended trips as well as some fair form to boot. She bled from the nose when last seen finishing 4th in the Fillies Mile, so in some ways you can upgrade that effort behind 3 horses rated between 108 and 112 now. That’s clearly the pick of her form, but a staying on win ahead of Beautiful Love is hardly particularly bad form, and links her into some Classic form lines too. She should definitely get this trip on breeding, and assuming she’s sound from her bleeding experience, I think she could go well.

1 member found this comment useful

15:15 3:15 York

Spycatcher

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@9.00

Lose

-50

Spycatcher, a previous 2nd in this as a 4yo, gets the hands of Ryan Moore to take him through this with Burke 4 handed. He's got a bit of form to turn round with Mill Stream and Washington Heights, but I'm not completely convinced this horse is an obvious Newmarket horse. He did win a conditions race, but did get roundly spanked in a handicap there, and I just wonder if you can upgrade that run moving to a more conventional track. He didn't look that comfortable into the dip to me, but really did step on up the hill to run down the leaders but just had too much to do. He should get a nice tow into it drawn around some pace angles, and with Cold Case coming here fresh and the selection holding him on form anyway, he and Diligent Harry should be in reverse when this horse is staying on.

1 member found this comment useful

14:45 2:45 York

Woven

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Win

Chances all over, but I’m going to give Woven another play. Dods is in decent form landing some big priced winners, and has won a couple of the relatively recent renewals of this, plus he’s got Murphy booked who is 4/8 a place for him, winning twice. The horse was 16th in this in 2022, but did follow up over 7f with a decent 4th at the track. He notched a joint peak RPR with my money on two starts ago, staying on well off a decent pace. With a truer passage he probably gets up, and was only denied by stumbling on the line. He was less good at Newmarket, but it was his first start there and the pace really held up so I think it’s forgivable and he wasn’t disgraced. He might be struggling to come from off the pace again, though drawn around a couple of pace angles inside him I don’t think stall 4 is a bad place to be. If he can get further forward than usual, he could be sticking to the task, with hopefully the more rain the better.

14:15 2:15 York

Chillingham

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@10.00

Lose

-50

Posted a peak RPR 3rd time up last season, and 1st time cheekpieces are held for his 3rd effort this season. He boasts a fair record over this trip of 11243, the last of which was his most recent effort when where the two horses that set the pace faded tamely late on suggesting perhaps they set a fair gallop. This horse seemed to have half an eye on the closers to his left rather than giving a genuine effort, so the cheekpieces could really help to focus his mind as he came there swinging from a nice prominent position but wasn’t able to press home his advantage. Down a lb for what was close to a career best RPR looks lenient enough though, even if Knightswood has done nothing for the form since. He looks capable on any ground, and is drawn well in 3 to take up a good position in a race that lacks pace so could be easier to stay off it this time. The race tends to go to 4yo’s, so he would have to buck that trend, but he’s lightly raced enough for his age to buck it.

1 member found this comment useful

13 May 2024

18:35 6:35 Windsor

Lady Dreamer

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@17.00

Lose

-50

Up in class, but she looks worth a try here on this ground off the back of a pipe opener. She went well enough first time up last year albeit over 7f and not quite getting home. Tried in first time cheekpieces this time, she ducked left from a wide draw, got dropped in miles back, but stayed on well to finish 5th when seemingly nowhere in the straight. I think that run can be upgraded significantly, and she could strike off a low weight if breaking better here. The visor and tongue tie replace the cheekpieces here, and she won here in a first time visor last year over CD off 1lb higher than this. Trainer has a sound record here (11 from last 67, 33 placed), and the horse is 21 on Gf so back on this surface has to be a plus.

16:47 4:47 Catterick

Hurstwood

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

Hurstwood looked interesting to me off a prep run in ground that wouldn't have suited. This could be run way too quickly, and setting up for one to close from off the pace. This horse gets a light weight on suitable going, and did finish a close 5th in this race 2nd time up for the season last year. He's got a decent draw next to a pace angle which could drag him into a better forward position, and hopefully his light weight can see him stay on best. He's towards the top of the speed ratings of these, suggesting he does have the pace to go with them if they go too hard, which looks likely. He did place off this mark on his last start last season, and also placed off higher marks than this throughout the year, with his best efforts by far being on good or better.

12 May 2024

15:30 3:30 Longchamp

Metropolitan

Daily Racing

25 EW

@26.00

Win

750

Could be playing for places here with Henry Longfellow involved, but it looked open otherwise, and I thought a chance on Metropolitan was worthwhile. A closing 5th when slowly away behind 6/1 shot for this in Ramadan, he was doing good work late in what turned into an out and out dash for the line. He was the most inconvenienced having to circle the field from an outside draw and didn’t get beaten far. 5 of the last 7 winners have come out of that race and won this, with 3 of those not winning it. Stall 1 may call for different tactics, though his damsire did make all from stall 1 over an additional furlong here, so with some relatively assured stamina in his pedigree perhaps a switch of tactics could see a surprise, with his sire also getting further.

14:50 2:50 Longchamp

Tulipa Chope

Daily Racing

25 EW

@26.00

Lose

-50

Tulipa Chope I thought was of small interest at a fair price here from a decent stall 4. She got locked in with nowhere to go over course and distance when last seen, and multiple switches later she ran on well considering in the Grotte, and especially as she wasn’t particularly reached for. Drawn ok in 4 here, with conqueror Minoushka out in 13, I think she could show up better with a bit more luck in running. Chic Colombine holds her on form, but is stuck out in 14 which is a major negative, and the same can be said for Romantic Style. With a large field and some principles drawn poorly, I suspect they could go harder than is desirable, and she’s got stamina to burn in her pedigree so hopefully will be doing some good work later she can hold position in stall 4.

11 May 2024

16:10 4:10 Lingfield

Sonmarg

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

A return to better ground could prove fruitful for Sonmarg from this mark. His two AW races have worked out well this season, seeing multiple horses come out and frank the form, for all it looks like he needs to improve for them on the face of his finishing positions. A look back to his 2yo turf efforts finds him beating a now 82 rated horse on good, before then following home two now 88 rated horses under a penalty on good, with the horse in 4th coming out and winning subsequently. Returning to a more conventional track (was 11th of 11 at Newmarket in last turf start) could prove fruitful, and a mark of 73 under rated him in the right conditions based on all this. A return to front running tactics could prove fruitful in a race with no pace, and up in class he comes here towards the bottom of the weights as well.

15:35 3:35 Lingfield

Born To Rock

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@41.00

Lose

-50

Born To Rock interested me at the prices here, going well in the Nell Gwyn for her seasonal reappearance and first run over further than the minimum trip. She'll need to step on for that, but it wasn't without promise given she didn't appear particularly comfortable hitting the dip at Newmarket, but stuck to the task well enough to my eye. The 1-2 have come out and run sound races in the 1000gns, albeit well beaten enough, but this race isn't of that level overall bar Remarquee who is the standout on ratings off 110. She'll have to run to her best though to give 12lbs to the 3yo's in my view, and it looks massively open bar that. Drying ground looks in her favour, as does an overall lack of pace. She's drawn in the stall (1) that has seen 3 of the last 4 winners break from it (albeit last year on the AW track, not the straight flat 7), and with just 4lbs to find with her fellow 3yo who is 5/2, I do not particularly see why she is sat at such a big price here.

1 member found this comment useful

14:40 2:40 Ascot

Arabian Storm

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

Whilst it's hard to make all here, I do wonder whether Arabian Storm may take some catching on the higher side as the pace angle. A good ground close 3rd behind Shoulvebeenaring around this time last year is standout form in the context of a mark of 93 given that horse went on to now be rated 112. He must have had his problems given he didn't race beyond that run in May last year, and whilst he's got form to turn round with Mostabshir from last time he must be entitled to improve having been off the track for nearly a year. Overall they look like they won't go that hard, so with the right fractions from an in form Murphy for an in form stable, he looks a nice enough price to at least get involved.

1 member found this comment useful

14:05 2:05 Ascot

Topanga

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Lose

-50

A handicap debut for Topanga off a low weight and pitched in against some elders here which is the biggest worry, but she had to be of interest off this opening mark of 88 getting 13lbs from the older horses (along with a few others in here). She was 5th behind 1000gns winner Elmalka on seasonal debut, and whilst well beaten it’s hardly bad form. Short of room at a key stage when going ok in that steadily run affair, she wasn’t able to go with the ones in front of her. Nudged up in trip here, perhaps if she has a want for further that was why. She’s certainly bred to appreciate further, being out of a horse who’s Mother won over CD in the Sandringham off a mark of 105, and who also won over further, and also on decent ground. The yard couldn’t be in better form

1 member found this comment useful

10 May 2024

15:40 3:40 Chester

Too Friendly

Daily Racing

25 EW

@21.00

Lose

-50

Too Frienly caught me eye here, for De Sousa again to land the big race spoils. The horse showed up well on the AW on his penultimate start off a big weight, and he could take advantage of a feather weight here having been used to saddling fair weights over obstacles. He'll appreciate conditions, albeit might want a bit more watering to be seen to best effect, but he could get the box seat sat just in behind the leaders if breaking on terms looking at the pace maps. He cantered over the field in a slowly ran affair, and quickened up appreciatively looking to have more to give at Kempton. A 4lb rise for that might not be enough to keep him out of the frame at a fair enough price in what is ultimately a bit of a lottery. His 2nd to Rubaud in a Listed event on reappearance suggests enough ability to make a mockery of this mark for a trainer that is a fair 12 from 73 on the flat this season.

14:35 2:35 Chester

Parlando

Daily Racing

25 EW

@12.00

Lose

-50

Rinse repeat of yesterdays non runner write up, and as I thought yesterday, Parlando could be another one to come out of the Lincoln with credit having been given a bit of an odd passage. Starting in 4, he switched groups having seemingly been settled on the far side. He then met plenty of interference before eventually staying on past beaten horses in ground that perhaps wasn't ideal (was his first run on soft). A length defeat to a now 98 rated horse off levels on his penultimate run on these shores reads well in the context of a mark of 90, and his runs prior to his Lincoln effort abroad were largely consistent. He's got a wide draw to contend with, and with 4 forward goers on his inside he could get a good sit behind them with a clear break. My assumption is the cutaway will be removed which could well inconvenience, but I think he's worth chancing all the same. He has been ridden forward in the past which I think will be a plus if he can get forward and go with them.

13:30 1:30 Chester

Island Native

Daily Racing

25 EW

@29.00

Lose

-50

A couple of last time backed in here spearhead the market, and I wouldn’t put anyone off Percy’s Lad either which makes up the front 3. This could be the one that Franny Norton nicks on Island Native. He’s sent up in class and has an absolute feather weight to saddle here. 0/5 on turf doesn’t inspire much confidence, and he could just be outclassed in this company, but he could just be the lowest drawn pace angle in here, and if Franny can nick to the front he hopefully can make the most of his light weight. In fields of 12 to 15 runners, stall 6 has the highest A/E, producing 5 winners to a 2.13 IV (GF/G ground), as an added bonus to his stall position. The returning Visor is also of some interest as it almost sparked him into victory when first applied, bumping into a horse who has progressed 9lbs since.

09 May 2024

16:10 4:10 Chester

Parlando

Daily Racing

25 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@12.00

Void

Parlando could be another one to come out of the Lincoln with credit having been given a bit of an odd passage. Starting in 4, he switched groups having seemingly been settled on the far side. He then met plenty of interference before eventually staying on past beaten horses on his first run off a break. He can improve for that, and if running to form he can get involved with Willium Buick in the saddle who was on for his debut win. A length defeat to a now 98 rated horse off levels on his penultimate run on these shores reads well in the context of a mark of 90, and his runs prior to his Lincoln effort abroad were largely consistent. He's got a wide draw to contend with, but a general lack of pace could see him get a better sit than would be anticipated, and he has been ridden forward in the past which I think will be a plus if he can get there.

14:35 2:35 Chester

Dashing Darcey

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@9.50

Lose

-50

Dashing Darcey looked interesting enough taking on a potential Stoute hotpot who has some classy back form to his name. He should be well in off this opening mark, but he’s got a speedy pedigree so perhaps going slightly further than 7f is a negative. I was taken enough with Dashing Darcey’'s reappearance effort in that he was in the clear a long way out and got picked off late by a closer. He looked to me like he just took a bit of a blow and could certainly come on significantly for that, and especially if given a bit of cover and delivered late. He looks to be on the right side of the weights for one towards the top of the speed ratings, and off a possible decent pace he’s got proven form over further so I’d hope he’d be staying on well enough. with that run under his belt.

1 member found this comment useful

14:05 2:05 Chester

Biddable

Daily Racing

25 EW

@34.00

Lose

-50

Rashabar has standout form, and the early 4/1 has gone, though one firm still priced at 3/1 appeals with others 9/4 or shorter mostly. The draw is against him, and it could take plenty of work from stall 10, so I just think he can be taken on. I could make a sound case for Teej A with lines in to the Seraphim Agnel form, but he's been well backed and is short enough now. So along similar lines, I though Biddable was worth a small play at a price. Dascombe's filly was 4L off Flicka's Girl who chased home Seraphim Angel yesterday. On the bare face of that, her price here looks generous. She seemingly did well to finish where she did on debut, taking a stumble early before being taken off heels multiple times and eventually having nowhere to go. She stayed on well enough after that to suggest an extra furlong will suit. She did beat Spirited Dancer into 7th who had previously finished just behind Kodibeat who was also 5th in the Seraphim Angel Race yesterday so there could be more substance to that Bath race than meets the eye.

1 member found this comment useful

13:30 1:30 Chester

Michaelas Boy

Daily Racing

25 EW

@10.00

Lose

-50

The setup for this race looks to me to be setting it up for one that does stay a bit further, with a likely dash to the lead on the cards from multiple stalls. There is an inevitability to that over any 5f trip, but there looks to be a real abundance of pace in here. Michaela's Boy didn't look the most obvious replacement for a non runner here, but he has a few pointers of interest. He retains a Group 1 sprint entry at Royal Ascot (even if he is 100/1), and gets a first time tongue tie here suggesting he's not been giving his best. His reappearance effort was about par based on last season reappearance, and his 2nd run was a much improved effort when 4th over 6f in a decent AW conditions race around horses rated plenty higher than this mark. His breeding would give him hope of staying further than the minimum trip, and perhaps the tongue tie can eek something out of him late on where he has often lacked a finishing effort.

1 member found this comment useful

Radio Goo Goo

Daily Racing

25 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@9.00

Void

Made all a couple of times to make it 2 from 2 here from low stalls. She doesn't have that luxury here out in 8, and with a fair bit of competition for the lead as well, including on her inside. That is a worry, but I'd hope the pace is just too much to handle for some, and with form over further and a weight carry on the low side she could well be doing her best work late from a forward enough position. Trainer an excellent 14 from 54 here in the last 5 years, also being 9 from 14 a place when sending horses here last season (4 wins). She put in a career best AW RPR on her penultimate start, before getting found out saddling 10st2lbs. Hopefully this lower carry of below 9st up in class can see her home

1 member found this comment useful

08 May 2024

16:45 4:45 Chester

Way To Dubai

Daily Racing

25 EW

@12.00

Lose

-50

Way To Dubai has Some interesting turf form in Germany, getting 6lbs from, and beating, a subsequent Group 3 winner who has run with credit after that too. This suggests to me a return to turf could mean he's a bit unexposed in this company, having been from 5 since running over here and running exclusively on the AW. His best efforts on that surface were in this class over 6 and 7f, with the 7f effort being a particularly decent effort in that he didn't get the smoothest of passages. This represents a slight drop in class into a 0-88 out of generally running in 0-95s, so he carries a fair weight but is a smooth traveller in his races, and if he can step forward for this return to turf he can still be considered well handicapped in my view. He's drawn ok in 4 to get a good pitch too as a bonus in what looks a tricky race overall.

14:05 2:05 Chester

Seraphim Angel

Daily Racing

50 WINNAPNOTETip made at odds of 8.00 on 07/05 at 16:200.10 deduction for Night In Paris@8.00 withdrawn at 09:25R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 7.00 x (1-0.10) = 7.30

@7.30

Win

315

Seraphim Angel went well on debut at Newmarket considering enough went wrong. She started out in stall 2 and ended up hanging left throughout and ending up almost on the other rail. She didn't quite get up the hill as a result from a forward position, but if she ends up on the front end here where she'll be naturally hanging left anyway she could end up staying on a bit more stoutly. That race has already taken a boost, with Lucid 7th, coming out and placing 2nd. The horse in 9th has subsequently finished a similar distance behind Mountain Breeze at Newmarket who looked a proper sort of a horse, but actually won in a slower time than the race in which this horse was involved in over the same course and distance on similar ground so I think you can upgrade the effort. The bundle of pace on does concern slightly, though she has some hope of getting a bit further so could be staying on best.

1 member found this comment useful

13:30 1:30 Chester

Exponista

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

I backed this horse in a Listed race at Bath when drawn high, and she just never got into the race, getting bumped about and absolutely no run at all late on. She made some decent late gains, and back up in trip looks a plus for her, previously making all over 6f at Nottingham. From her draw there is every chance she can nick to the front or forward and prove to be well handicapped off 89, dropping significantly in class for this. She'll saddle her share of weight as a result which does concern slightly, but given she acquitted herself well enough in Group 3 company last season, beaten 3L in and around 100+ rated horses at a big price, I think she's capable of saddling this on handicap debut and looks worth another chance overall at what looks a fair price. Rossa Ryan needs to break his duck at Chester, being 10 from 37 a place without winning, though 7 of those came from 21 runs in stall 5 or below, and 7 of the 10 were 2nds.

1 member found this comment useful

06 May 2024

16:20 4:20 Windsor

Lady Dreamer

Daily Racing

50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@8.00

Void

Tricky one, and I landed on 3 of the top 4 in the betting as it stands. The outsider of those 3 I’ll take a chance on with Lady Dreamer. Cheekpieces are relaxed by the Visor which did the trick last year. She had a wide draw and ducked left early at Kempton on reappearance, then racing a bit keenly so ultimately did well to come round the field and run on into 5th. She stepped forward markedly for the run last year so should well progress here, with the ground being the biggest unknown. She did place with soft in places at Carlisle off a 6lb higher mark, so there is some hope at least that she can take to softer going. A lack of pace here is interesting, and she could be asked to go forward by Levey who has a sound record here, and is 3/4 a place on her.

1 member found this comment useful

15:35 3:35 Curragh

Gregarina

Daily Racing

25 EW

@21.00

Win

600

A 3 strong hand for Joseph O’Brien, with Ryan Moore booked on Jumbly. It’s a horse that switches to him that I thought has shown a bit more class than a mark of 101 would suggest, most notably when chasing home Poker Face, and that looks comparable to some of the best soft ground form on offer here. She’ll have a want for further, but with some guaranteed pace involved with Doom, and probably Purple Love, this could turn into more of a test than it appears on the face of jt. That should play into the hands of this one to close late on if she can get a decent track position and go with the pace.

1 member found this comment useful

14:30 2:30 Beverley

La La Lucrative

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@10.00

Lose

-50

Going against a previously backed here dangerously, but I thought La La Lucrative was of interest for an in form Gemma Tutty who has been having an excellent season so far. Chasing home 84 and 85 rated horses in receipt of 7lbs looks a fair enough effort for an opening mark of 62. I think that effort could be marked up to a degree as she was pulling really hard under a slow pace, and only faded in the last 1/2 furlong. They could be better served just to let her go and see if she stays a strongly run 5f, which on breeding she should as she’s bred for further. I thought she had more under the bonnet than she showed, given an easy enough time late on when last seen. As long as she doesn’t run too fresh, I think she is interesting, and if she does get a cheap lead or at least get forward she can make the most of being on the low side of the weight carries.

1 member found this comment useful

05 May 2024

15:40 3:40 Newmarket

Elmalka

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 29.00 used instead of 26.00 takenBOG

@29.00

Win

840

A 1000gns that doesn’t appear to have one absolute standout candidate, and I’m happy to side with an outsider here. Elmalka would probably have come into this with an unblemished record but for dwelling and getting bumped from the stalls in the Fred Darling. She had to switch late when in behind horses and tanked home once she got some clear air. She’ll want a longer trip potentially in time, so this step up a furlong looks a big positive, as does the forecast strong pace. She’s a half sister to Benbatl so could take to this track as well as the forecast ground, and whilst she’s got form to turn round with Regal Jubilee she could find the required improvement here and looks worth a chance at the odds to be staying on best.

1 member found this comment useful

15:00 3:00 Newmarket

Bague Dor

Daily Racing

50 WINNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@8.00

Win

350

A decent 121 record here, and some hope in his pedigree that he’ll get the extra distance with his dam being out of a 1m6f winner. He’ll benefit from a low weight carry to help see him home, and the ground looks in his favour given he’s only missed the frame once on good of better from 9 starts outside of Novice company. He has a 122 record fresh, so I’d have no worry backing him off a break even if he probably needs to match or better his career best efforts here.

1 member found this comment useful

14:25 2:25 Newmarket

Stay Alert

Daily Racing

50 WINNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@7.00

Win

300

These are split by just 6lbs on rating making this hard to pick apart, and that would immediately put me off Silver Lady who runs under a penalty. This will cut down to 6 I expect with Novus running on Saturday, so I’m picking from 4. Of those, the one that has shown the most is probably Stay Alert, notching some fair efforts in defeat in Group 1 company. She was beat 2nd time up last year, but the drop in trip is just of interest to me as she pulled hard on her first start last season. She could get away with doing that here over a shorter distance and still be staying on. She is a full sister to a dual Newmarket winner, giving her a fair chance of taking to the track too. Notching RPRs of 104 to 114 on Good or better, I think the balance of her form gives her an edge over these.

1 member found this comment useful

13:50 1:50 Newmarket

Strutting

Daily Racing

25 EW

@12.00

Lose

-50

Some interesting form on show with the likes of Kalpana (behind Inisherin before being a 10L victor) a standout Fav, and Winter Snowfall beating a subsequent 10L victor last time. They’re not taken on lightly, but I was inclined to side with the Gosdens 2nd string on jockey bookings here. She’s going to want every yard of this on breeding, and holds an Oaks entry. There looks a fair bit of pace on, and if they go too hard and she can go with them my sense is she won’t be stopping. She was ridden forward last time stepped up in trip and stayed on gamely having been off the bridle from a way out to win going away. Her form behind 97 rated True Cyan here over 7f reads well class wise given that horse reappeared with a fair 4th in a Group 3. This horse took some knocking around there but still stuck to the task nicely enough over what will be a trip too short, and that track experience can stand her in good stead to take to this.

1 member found this comment useful

04 May 2024

17:15 5:15 Newmarket

Jungle Mac

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 26.00 used instead of 21.00 takenBOG

@26.00

Win

100

You have to dig quite deep into this horses pedigree to decide if he wants this far, but who is to argue with Jack Channon who is in flying form. Regardless he looks well handicapped off 79 on turf efforts to me, most notably finishing behind 86 rated Al Shabab Storm at Goodwood. He stayed fairly well that day off a strong pace, and a lack of pace in this can possibly help him stay the extra yardage. He stayed on well at Salisbury when seemingly unbalance late on which would concern slightly coming here, but overall I think the negatives are baked well enough into his price for a small play in this big field h'cap.

1 member found this comment useful

15:35 3:35 Newmarket

Inisherin

Daily Racing

25 EW

@41.00

Lose

-50

Inisherin went pretty well here on debut against a 3 times raced and subsequent Derby trial winner Bellum Justum. He followed that up with a facile success, comfortably dispatching a subsequent 10L winner in Kalpana. He could sneak into this off the front end, with a lack of clear front runners anywhere else in the field. The main concern is he sets it up nicely for one to stay past him (City Of Troy), but whilst the latter's win was visually impressive here in the Dewhurst, I'm not completely convinced by the form to be backing one so short despite the overall vibes surrounding him. Owners have this horse in here alongside one of the favs in Rosallion which I thought was of some interest in that this one may appreciate the surface a bit more. Kevin Ryan couldn't be going too much better, and did have a big priced 2nd in this last year with one off the front. He had a big priced 5th with Juan Elcano in 2020 too, so he's got a bit of recent form in the race to suggest he doesn't throw this one in lightly.

1 member found this comment useful

14:20 2:20 Newmarket

Kings Code

Daily Racing

25 EW

@51.00

Lose

-50

Consistent on the AW since finishing a distant last here on his last turf start, but he did bleed from the nose that day so had excuses. I think he's priced on that 14 of 14, because he does stay this far on the AW, and did have a record of 131 on turf for David Evans prior to that effort. He did well to finish 4th on his penultimate start when taken back and outpaced. He got majorly hampered in the home straight, and with a clear a run he would have got much closer. A lack of pace suggests he might struggle to come from off it, but a big field handicap here could end up just being run quicker than forecast so I'm happy to side with one that should be staying on past beaten horses as he does get further.

1 member found this comment useful

03 May 2024

15:15 3:15 Goodwood

Alcazan

Daily Racing

25 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@13.00

Void

I like one from off the front at Goodwood, and especially in soft/heavy ground which can be harder to make ground in off the pace. Alcazan will do for me here, with a 2/2 record at the track and leading on both occasions. She could end up with a bit of company here, but with a light weight she can stay on best. Heavy ground is an unknown, but she gets a 6lb swing with one of the market principles here and a feather 8st2lbs to take round. That might not be enough to turn the tables with that 9/2 shot in Bishop's Crown, but hopefully he'll just get caught a bit too far back this time round and needs to prove he can back up that sort of effort. This one can strip fitter for the run too, having won twice from 3 efforts off breaks, and winning 3rd time up last term.

1 member found this comment useful

15:00 3:00 Newmarket

Zouky

Daily Racing

25 EWNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@10.00

Void

Zouky put in a career best AW effort first time out for the season, fading late over a mile at Kempton. She drops in class here for this drop in trip which looks a plus, with her record at 7f being 125, and the 5 was only a 1/2L defeat in a blanket finish. Bar getting trounced at York, her turf record reads well, so if she can transfer the AW improvement back to this surface I think she can go well. A more truly run race than last time can hopefully help her, and she did beat Dark Thirty on similar terms previously when coming from a seemingly impossible position to pick him up late suggesting she can be pushing on up the rising ground.

1 member found this comment useful

02 May 2024

18:35 6:35 Punchestown

Churchstonewarrior

Daily Racing

25 EW

@26.00

Lose

-50

2 from 2 on GY ground, this horse reverts to Hurdles having failed to make a mark over fences this season. He goes off an 11lb lower Hurdles mark for this return to Hurdles which reads well with a look back to his Hurdle form. A defeat of 155 rated chaser Mahler Mission when last seen over these obstacles suggests a mark of 135 is attainable, as does chasing home Gaillard Du Mesnil the time before who is rated similarly. If he can run anywhere near that I see no particular reason he can't get involved in this. Mark Walsh is 3/7 a place for the trainer over Hurdles, winning twice, and is an interesting booking in a race like this.

16:15 4:15 Punchestown

Pats Choice

Daily Racing

25 EW

@51.00

Lose

-50

More exposed than many, but the 50/1 about Pat's Choice made some minor appeal back on a sounder surface. 6/8 a place on G/Y or better, he hasn’t raced on it in almost a year. The pick of his runs this year could see him involved, with a 7/8L defeat by Path D'Oroux or interest. He'll get a 9lb swing for that, and does have a bit to find with Solness on similar terms but the price differentiation is as such that I think he's worth a small play given his overall profile and the return to a sounder surface. He was upsides at the last having probably been left to go forward a bit too early, so a bit more restraint and a shorter trip and light weight will hopefully all combine to a decent effort at a price.

01 May 2024

15:25 3:25 Ascot

Moulin Booj

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@8.00

Lose

-50

Looked worth a small wager to transfer sound AW efforts back to turf. He ran on well from a fairly compromising position at Lingfield last time to be nearest at the finish running through horses. A stiff straight 5 could be up his street, and at the very least he should get a fair crack at it. Ground on the soft side isn’t necessarily ideal but he does have two 2nds on Soft/Heavy, and one of those off a big weight. This one is ultimately a bit more about not seeing what else can win, rather than being particularly strong that this horse will, so a small chance it is.

14:50 2:50 Ascot

Rosario

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@19.00

Lose

-50

I’m minded to forgive Rosario a seasonal reappearance first time on the AW. A wide draw combined with missing the break he was never involved. He can show up better with soft in the description given some of his form, notably chasing home Inquisitively at Newmarket who is rated 108, and which is better than anything on show here. He was a similar distance behind that horse as Purosangue was previously, so the disparity in price between them looks too big. This stiff test could suit as he seemed to want a bit further on breeding, and with some guaranteed pace involved it could be run quicker than ideal for some.

13:10 1:10 Ascot

Diligently

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@7.50

Lose

-50

The standard set by those with a run doesn’t look particularly blistering in the Ascot opener, so I thought newcomer Diligently was worth a small play. He’s the most expensive purchase on show, bred by Cheveley Park. He’s quite closely related to recent Greenham winner Esquire, with him being by Harry Angel out of this horses grandmother. Diligently is also by Harry Angel, out of a half sister to Audience and Dark Lady who were smart enough on their day, particularly the former. Cox’s 2yo’s regularly run well first time out, with 18 placed out of his last 37, 5 winning.

30 April 2024

16:15 4:15 Punchestown

Jasko Des Dames

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Lose

-50

The unexposed ones appeal most, and of those, Jasko Des Dames looked of most interest to me for Rachael and Henry. You have to strike a line through his last run, where he was given some tender handling off a break so hopefully that was just a prep for this. A mark of 125 looks lenient on his previous efforts, in particular a 2nd to Lisnagar Fortune off levels with that horse posting an RPR of 139. The pair had Baring Bingham 4th Mercurey in behind who himself is now rated 142. He beat now 137 rated Jigoro on debut in France, and whilst that horse has turned round that form since, it shows the latent ability is there if on a going day.

15:05 3:05 Punchestown

Petit King

Daily Racing

25 EWNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@19.00

Void

Just a few lengths off a now 124 rated horse getting 3lbs last time, this horse gets an added claim to take him down to 112 here. He beat Morrisons over CD in December giving a stone away and runs off levels here against that horse who is 10/1, whilst also being on similar terms with Dancing Jeremy who is also shorter and who he also beat. Brynes is 3/7 a place when riding for this trainer in the last year, winning twice. If he can get the horse to lie up with the pace, which doesn’t look overly strong, I think he has a chance better than his odds of going well.

Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.

Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.