ARQ007
Travelled Man of Kent. Likes: cars, sport, eating out, working out, conversation, travel, gambling, short-sleeve shirts. All teeth my own.
1
Estimated Prizes
this month
£5
Estimated Prize money
this month
ARQ007's Tips History
18 May 2024
20:20 8:20 Doncaster
Mukaafah
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 4.33 used instead of 3.75 takenBOG
@4.33
Win
100
This 3yo Blue Point colt looked very useful when he thrashed his rivals from the front at Kempton in November. He was rather dissapointing LTO on his reappearance when he didn’t respond at all well to restraint, pulling hard and out of petrol before the final furlong 52 days ago. Hood on for handicap debut and Jim Crowley rides this one today.
15:35 3:35 Newbury
Inspiral
Daily Racing
25 EW
@3.40
Lose
-50
One of the Gosden team's real stars this 5yo Frankel mare beat market rival Big Rock to win her second successive Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville last August. She then completed a top-level hat-trick in the autumn with wins in the Sun Chariot at Newmarket (1m) and Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf at Santa Anita (1¼m). The drying ground clearly helps her impressive turn of foot and she's the one for me.
1 member found this comment useful
13:50 1:50 Newbury
Desert Hero
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@1.80
Lose
-50
William Haggas' 4yo son of Sea The Stars is a top-class performance, who won the strong King George (Handicap) at Royal Ascot last June then followed up after a troubled run in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood. Third in the St Leger to end his season, and lot's to like about his reappearance run at Sandown 22 days ago, needing all the 10f that day. Return to this trip will help and definitely the one to beat.
2 members found this comment useful
Subtotal0
17 May 2024
19:05 7:05 Leopardstown
Kyprios
Daily Racing
53 WINNAP
@1.17
Win
9
Clearly facile odds here but I need a winning Nap! Aiden O'Brien's 6yo Galileo colt is rated 10 pounds clear of his nearest rivals and is clearly being prepped for a tilt at the Ascot Gold Cup (which he won in 2022 but injury forced him to miss last year's renewal). He resumed his career with a convincing success at Navan in a Listed heat 20 days ago and is the class act here.
16:45 4:45 York
Riot
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 17.00 used instead of 13.00 takenBOG
@17.00
Win
480
I just feel David O'Meara's 7yo son of Kingman is a decent price (with 5 places - 6 at SkyBet) and is on a handy mark here. He has run 3 times here over C&D (3rd,4th and 5th in some big fields) and won four times last year. He was never involved from a wide draw at Chelmsford (7f) last month but that was a Class 3 heat, the visor goes back on today, as does Danny Tudhope who's won on him before.
14:30 Alejandro Tabilo vs Alexander Zverev
Alexander Zverev
Win Match
100 WIN
@1.25
Win
25
This is a huge deal for Tabilo (ranked 32) as it's the first time the 26yo Chilean has made it to the SFs at Masters 1000 level. World #5 Zverev is an old hand at this now and is 10-7 in such matches in his career, 5-3 on clay with 2 of the losses to old rival Tsitsipas. The 27yo German (winner here in 2017, finalist in 2018) is 20-3 on clay in the past 12 months vs players ranked outsuide the top 20. Tabilo has played just 5 top 20 players on clay in his career, and only two top 10s. An impressive win vs a fading Djokovic, he also lost in straight sets to Ruud in Monte Carlo last month. He's bound to be nervous, so going with Zverev here.
Over 21.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.80
Win
40
I have to try for the Overs at this number here, because these two have been serving superbly effectively here on clay in Rome. Tabilo (ranked 32) is winning 80% of first serve points and saved 9 of 12 BPs faced (didn't face any vs Djokovic). World #5 Zverev is winning 81% of first serve points and saved 4 of 5 BPs faced (he didn't face any LTO vs Fritz). These two have never played one another before, so a lack of game-style familiarity usually tends towards Overs as they work one another out. The warm/sunny weather in Rome (about 25 deg today) helps balls travel faster and helps serves.
Alejandro Tabilo 3.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@2.25
Win
62
At odds against, a small risk on Tabilo (ranked 32) keeping this close as the Chilean has been serving so well here in Rome (the warm weather means it's fast conditions for a clay court), winning 80% of first serve points and saving 9 of 12 BPs faced (didn't face any vs Djokovic). World #5 Zverev should win but against a tricky lefty this should be close.
Subtotal616
16 May 2024
19:30 Danielle Collins vs Aryna Sabalenka
Over 21.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.80
Lose
-50
The career H2H between world #2 Sabalenka and Collins (ranked 15) may be 5-0 to the 26yo Belarusian, but 3 of those 5 meetings have gone to a decider, including the last twice, latterly on clay in Madrid. This is a night match so conditions won't be quick, but really that doesn't suit either player. Collins has had trouble with the Sabalenka serve in their matchups but equally Sabalenka seems to be playing some long matches lately and Colllins is on fire at present and Collins will be a tougher test than Ostapenko LTO, who practically beat herself.
15:45 3:45 York
Al Musmak
Daily Racing
25 EW
@7.00
Lose
-50
I think Roger Varian's Night Of Thunder colt is a bit of value. Won two of his 4 starts as a 2yo, beaten by Rosallion in a 7f Ascot listed race last July then a 1¼ lengths second to Ghostwriter in the Royal Lodge at Newmarket (1m, good to firm) on final juvenile start. Those two of stamped that form in the 2000 Guineas.
1 member found this comment useful
Ancient Wisdom
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.38
Lose
-50
Charlie Appleby's team have hit the ground running this season and this 3yo Dubawi colt - a €2,000,000 yearling - should keep that going here. He was an excellent 4 from 5 in his juvenile season, a very impressive winner of a 1m Newmarket Group 3 in October then ending his campaign with Group 1 glory in the Futurity at Doncaster (1m, heavy). Should be suited by the step up to 1¼m and the one to beat.
1 member found this comment useful
15:30 Olivia Gadecki vs Alize Cornet
Over 20.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.83
Win
41
Given how poor former world #11 Cornet (now ranked 99) has been of late - and the 34yo Frenchwoman's announced she's retiring after this year's French Open - I'm surprised to see her such a short favourite here and expected to dismiss Gadecki (ranked 168) with ease. Ok, the 22yo Aussie is now known for her clay prowess but she has got talent and Cornet has not been beating anyone with ease lately. A small risk.
14:00 Iga Swiatek vs Coco Gauff
Iga Swiatek
Win Match
70 WIN
@1.17
Win
12
This has been a horror match up for Gauff (ranked 3) in her career, she's lost 9 of her 10 matches with world #1 Swiatek, and the sole win was in a decider in fast conditions in Miami. This is a daytime match so conditions will be quicker in Rome but even so, Swiatek has dropped just 18 games in her 4 straight sets wins here. The 22yo Pole won this in 2021 and 2022 and retired in the QFs last year. And Gauff can be pressured, that serve and forehand break down when put under strain which is exactly what Swiatek does in their matches.
Iga Swiatek to win 2 - 0
Set Betting
50 WIN
@1.53
Win
26
This has been a horror match up for Gauff (ranked 3) in her career, she's lost 9 of her 10 matches with world #1 Swiatek, all those defeats in straight sets (her sole win was in a decider in fast conditions in Cincinnati). This is a daytime match so conditions will be quicker in Rome but even so, Swiatek has dropped just 18 games in her 4 straight sets wins here.
Under 18.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
Because this H2H has been awful for Gauff (ranked 3) - she's lost 9 of her 10 matches with world #1 Swiatek, with all those defeats in straight sets (her sole win was in a decider in fast conditions in Cincinnati). Although this is a daytime match so conditions will be quicker in Rome, Swiatek has dropped just 18 games in her 4 straight sets wins here. And all but one of her 9 wins over the 20yo American have been Under this number.
Iga Swiatek
1st Set Winner
50 WIN
@1.25
Win
12
This has been a horror match up for Gauff (ranked 3) in her career, she's lost 9 of her 10 matches with world #1 Swiatek, all those defeats in straight sets (her sole win was in a decider in fast conditions in Cincinnati). This is a daytime match so conditions will be quicker in Rome but even so, Swiatek has dropped just 18 games in her 4 straight sets wins here, I think she gets another 2-0 win and so wil win set 1.
Coco Gauff 5.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@2.00
Win
50
At Evens a small risk on world #3 Gauff keeping this a bit closer than she's managed before vs #1 Swiatek. The 20yo American gets a day match so conditions will be faster in Rome than at night, so given her only win in 10 previous attempts vs the 22yo Pole was in quick conditions in Cincinnati, I'll take a shot here.
12:00 Hubert Hurkacz vs Tommy Paul
Hubert Hurkacz
Win Match
60 WIN
@1.67
Lose
-60
As per my Games Won and Games Total tips (see separate write ups) I feel this will be a match of very few service breaks, and although Paul (ranked 16) is having a great week here (the 26yo American showing an aptitude for this clay surface), this match is being held during the day. the weather in Rome is 27 deg, sunny which means it's quick for clay and that favours world #9 Hurkacz. Known for his big serve, the 27yo 6 foot 5" Pole has held it 91% of the time here this week. I think the conditions and match timing tip things in his favour.
Over 23.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
As this line has now dropped below 24.5, I'll bite. This match is being held during teh day and weather in rome is 27 deg, sunny and that means it's quick for clay. World #9 Hurkacz is known for his big serve and the 27yo 6 foot 5" Pole has held it 91% of the time here this week and is winning
Tommy Paul 1.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
Given I think this will be a match of very few breaks, and the fact that Paul (ranked 16) is having a great week here, the 26yo American showing an aptitude for this clay surface, I'll take a shot with the head start. This match is being held during the day and weather in rome is 27 deg, sunny which means it's quick for clay. That does favour world #9 Hurkacz (known for his big serve, the 27yo 6 foot 5" Pole has held it 91% of the time here this week). But Paul has a break %age here of 46% which is very good and he's played three guys (Medvedev especially) with a big first delivery.
10:30 Jesika Maleckova vs Anna Karolina Schmiedlova
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.20
Win
10
I would expect Schmiedlova (ranked 67) to win here as the 29yo Slovakian is a venerable clay-courter at main WTA tour level. She may only be 4-3 on the red stuff so far in '24 but has been playing well. with some decent performances in defeat to the likes of Garcia, Jabeur and Sasnovich. She's 35-27 on clay since 2022 but 25-10 vs opponents ranked 100+. Maleckova (ranked 520) has been toiling around lower level ITF events on clay for some time, the 29yo Czech is 1-12 in her career vs players ranked inside the top 120 (that win here LTO vs Wang, in a decider, in which the Chinese player was playing just her second match on the red stuff this year). She's 7-17 on clay at main WTA tour level in her career.
Subtotal-17
15 May 2024
16:30 Susan Bandecchi vs Mayar Sherif
Mayar Sherif
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.10
Win
5
As per my Set betting (2-0) tip (see separate write up) it stands to reason that I feel that Sherif (ranked 80) - who's an out and out clay-courter - wins this match. The 28yo Egyptian made #31 last year based on her clay results and is 33-5 vs opponents ranked 100+ on clay since 2022. Bandecchi (ranked 371) is something of a journeyman player at lower levels of the women's tour and I don't see here winning here.
Mayar Sherif to win 2 - 0
Set Betting
56 WIN
@1.36
Win
20
Bandecchi (ranked 371) is something of a journeyman player at lower levels of the women's tour having mostly played ITF events. Since 2022, the 25yo Swiss has played just 23 matches (9-14, 4-5 on clay) on main WTA tour (mostly lower class events/Qualies) and is 2-5 in that span (2-4 on clay). Sherif (ranked 80) is an out and out clay-courter, the 28yo Egyptian made #31 last year based on her clay results (58-20 since 2022) and she's won 6 titles in that period on the red stuff. She's 33-5 in that same span vs opponents ranked 100+ with 24 of those wins in straight sets.
Mayar Sherif
1st Set Winner
50 WIN
@1.18
Win
9
As per my Setbetting (2-0) tip (see separate write up) it stands to reason that I feel that Sherif (ranked 80) - who's an out and out clay-courter - wins set 1 here. The 28yo Egyptian made #31 last year based on her clay results. Bandecchi (ranked 371) is something of a journeyman player at lower levels of the women's tour and I don't see here winning here.
Susan Bandecchi 6.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.80
Win
40
A very small risk that the outsider can keep this within a very big spread as Sherif (ranked 31) allowed her opponent yesterday to keep within this number and today's opponent Bandecchi (ranked 371) is probably of equal capabilities.
15:15 3:15 York
Spycatcher
Daily Racing
25 EW
@7.50
Lose
-50
Karl Burke has booked Ryan Moore just 7 times in the last 12 months (one win and 3 places) but he's put him up on his progressive 6yo Vadamos gelding who's developed into a smart sprinter. He won twice last season and was best of those held up when third in the Champions' Sprint at Ascot final start. Ran on into third in the Abernant Stakes (6f) 4 weeks ago on seasonal return and he should be better for that run.
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14:00 Alejandro Tabilo vs Zhizhen Zhang
Over 23.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@2.05
Lose
-50
At Odds against I have to go Overs here because, for all that clay courts generally don't favour big servers that much, here in Rome this week it's dry, sunny and hot and that's been helping players like these two. Zhang (ranked 56) has held serve here 95% of the time this tournament, Tabilo (ranked 32) 91%. These two have played just once before, and although it was on grass (Wimbledon Qualies, 2021) it was decided in 2 TBs (Zhang won). Tabilo converted just 2 of 8 BP chances LTO vs Khachanov, Zhang just 1 of 5 LTO vs Monteiro.
14:00 Sloane Stephens vs Olivia Gadecki
Sloane Stephens
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.10
Void
0
Former US Open champ Stephens (ranked 36) is now something of a “flat track bully”, the 31yo American regularly beating lower ranked opposition but no longer able to beat the top class players at better tournaments. That said she’s done really well in lesser events like this, especially on clay (and in France!), as she’s recently won the title (also on clay) in Rouen and last year won in St Malo and made the SFs in Rabat. She’s 27-14 on the dirt since 2022, 18-5 vs players ranked 50+ in that span. Qualifier Gadecki (ranked 168) is , the 22yo Aussie just 2-6 on the red stuff in the past 12 months (at this level), 0-5 on clay in her career vs top 100 players and lost to Stephens in straight sets at this year’s Aussie Open.
12:30 Diana Shnaider vs Greet Minnen
Diana Shnaider
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.25
Win
12
Minnen (ranked 76) must be cursing the draw-gods as the last match she played was in Rome vs Schnaider (ranked 62) and the 26yo Belgian was beaten in straight sets in Rome. She’s 4-5 on the clay this season wither wins against lower level opponents. The yo Russian is a talented prospect and she’s 4-3 on the dirt so far, her losses to a higher class of opposition (e.g. Badosa x2, Potapova) and I’d expect her top repeat the same result here
11:30 Jesika Maleckova vs Emiliana Arango
Emiliana Arango
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.40
Void
0
I would expect Arango (ranked 118) to win here as the 23yo Colombian has been playing very well on teh clay at main WTA level this term. She made R2 in Madrid (via Qualies) and took world #33 to a decider there, and has beaten some decent players at that level. Maleckova (ranked 520) has been toiling around lower level ITF events on clay for some time, the 29yo Czech is 1-12 in her career vs players ranked inside the top 120 (that win here LTO vs Wang, in a decider, in which the Chinese player was playing just her second match on the red stuff this year). She's 7-17 on clay at main WTA tour level in her career.
10:00 Giorgia Pedone vs Anna Karolina Schmiedlova
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.29
Win
14
Pedone (ranked 270) is playing just her third ever match at main WTA tour level and the 19yo Italian - who got a WC entry here in Parma - has only ever faced one top 100 opponent in her career (Estonian veteran Kanepi, who retired from their match last year). Schmiedlova (ranked 67) is a venerable clay-courter, the 29yo Slovakian may only be 3-3 on the red stuff so far in '24 but she's put in some decent poerformances in defeat to the likes of Garcia, Jabeur and Sasnovich. She's 34-27 on clay since 2022 but 24-10 vs opponents ranked 100+.
Subtotal0
14 May 2024
20:00 8:00 Ayr
Archduke Ferdinand
Daily Racing
25 EW
@6.00
Lose
-50
Seb Spencer's 5yo Gutaifan gelding has only run oncehere at Ayr but it was a decent enough run (on stable debut, having been with Tracy Waggott before) and he's improved since then. He's still pretty low mileage I feel, with room for a bit more to come after being very narrowly denied when second of 14 in a handicap at Newcastle (7.1f) 28 days ago on seasonal return.
19:30 Coco Gauff vs Qinwen Zheng
Over 21.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.85
Lose
-50
In all honesty this is not a great deal more than a gut feel, as these two can swat opponents away as much as stumble and suffer crises of confidence. They've not met before at senior WTA level but they played once in juniors, in the 2018 Orange Bowl final which world #3 Gauff won 6-1, 3-6, 6-4. And the young American took 3 sets to get past badosa here LTO, with world #7 Zheng also taking 3 sets to beat #29 Noskova in R3. Both are adept on clay and either could win this in straight sets, but I feel there will be momentum changes.
Qinwen Zheng 2.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.85
Lose
-50
As per my Games Total write up I just feel this could be a roller coaster match of momentum swings and given they've not met before at senior WTA level (they played once in juniors, which world #3 Gauff won 6-1, 3-6, 6-4) it could go either way. With world #7 Zheng in good form she could easily win this so I'l take the head start.
18:00 Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Alex De Minaur
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Win Match
77 WIN
@1.36
Win
28
This has been a H2H heavily in favour of World #8 Tsitsipas, the 25yo Greek (a former finalist and twice a SF-ist here in Rome) leads the matchup with De Minaur (ranked 11) 12-2 and has won all 3 prior meetings on clay in straight sets. He's been in good form this clay swing with a title in Monte Carlo and a final in Barcelona and he's beaten 2 decent opponents in Struff and Norrie here in his first 2 matches. His 25yo Aussie opponent has a rather poor record here, just 4-5 with his 2 wins here this year. He's just 19-14 on dirt since 2022 and 2-6 in that span vs top 20 players, 4 of those defeats in straight sets.
Stefanos Tsitsipas to win 2 - 0
Set Betting
50 WIN
@2.00
Win
50
At Evens I'll chance world #8 Tsitsipas to do this in shiort shrift as this has been a H2H heavily in favour of the 25yo Greek, who's a former finalist and twice a SF-ist here in Rome, He leads the matchup with De Minaur (ranked 11) 12-2 and has won all 3 prior meetings on clay in straight sets. He's been in good form this clay swing with a title in Monte Carlo and a final in Barcelona and he's beaten 2 decent opponents in Struff and Norrie here in his first 2 matches. His 25yo Aussie opponent has a rather poor record here, just 4-5 with his 2 wins here this year. He's just 19-14 on dirt since 2022 and 2-6 in that span vs top 20 players, 4 of those defeats in straight sets.
Over 22.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@2.10
Lose
-50
At odds against a small risk on this going over a feasible number. Although this H2H is heavily in favour of World #8 Tsitsipas, De Minaur (ranked 11) won their last encounter in Acapulco, beating the 25yo Greek in a decider. The 25yo Aussie has just beaten Auger Aliassime and could make this a test of on his top game.
14:30 Alexander Zverev vs Nuno Borges
Alexander Zverev
Win Match
68 WIN
@1.13
Win
9
World #5 Zverev has a great record here in Rome, winner in 2017 finalist in 2018 and 18-6 career win-loss here. He's won both his first two matches here this term vs tricky opponents in straight sets and in Borges (ranked 53) faces a player whom I believe is a tad lucky to get this far. The 27yo Portuguese sneaked past Martinez in R1 (a match he had no right to win) and then faced a seemingly unmotivated Bublik, then struggled past #240 ranked Passaro in a decider.
14:30 Martina Colmegna vs Mayar Sherif
Mayar Sherif to win 2 - 0
Set Betting
50 WIN
@1.30
Win
15
Colmegna (ranked 396) plays almost solely on clay but the yo Italian has not ventured inmto the rarefied air of an actual WTA main tour event (even a lower level one such as this) very often. In fact, just 6 times in her career (back to 2016 was teh fiurst occurence) and she's 1-5, the sole victory vs a player ranked #629. Her only ever match vs a top 100 ranked opponent was that one in 2016, a one-sided straight sets defeat. Sherif (ranked 80) is a very accomplished clay-courter, the 28yo Egyptian reached a rank of #31 last year (based on her clay court swing in '23) and is 57-20 on clay since 2022, 11-2 in that span vs oppoents ranked 200+ and 10 of those wins were in straight sets. She took former world #1 Azarenka to a decider in R3 in Rome a few days ago and should do this in easy fashion.
Subtotal-98
13 May 2024
18:35 6:35 Windsor
Katey Kontent
Daily Racing
25 EW
@4.50
Win
105
Clive Cox's 4yo Havana Grey filly won her first two career starts and then contested some pretty heavy duty races (e.g. Queen Mary Stakes). She bumped into an improver on her final start as a 3yo in October when dropped to this sort of level but she's been nearer the front tnan the back in all hetr starts and a 1lb rise in the ratings looks unlikely to prevent a bold showing in this company.
17:35 5:35 Windsor
Lennox
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 4.33 on 12/05 at 23:370.00 deduction for My Dream World@26.00 withdrawn at 06:250.00 deduction for Amserda @81.000 withdrawn at 07:470.00 deduction for The Flying Falco @81.000 withdrawn at 07:490.00 deduction for Time To Roll @51.000 withdrawn at 08:190.20 deduction for Thyer @4.500 withdrawn at 10:450.35 deduction for Master Builder @2.750 withdrawn at 12:47R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 3.33 x (1-0.55) = 2.50
@2.50
Lose
-16
Harry Eustance’s 3yo Muhaarar colt from a good family and has had three very promising runs in maiden and novice company, latterly when second of 8 in a maiden at Yarmouth (8f, good to firm) 20 days ago, well clear of rest. The step up in trip should suit and on these terms - with an initial mark of 78 - he really should be bang there in this competition.
16:30 4:30 Windsor
Global Asset
Daily Racing
25 EW
@3.50
Lose
-13
William Haggas' 3yo Night Of Thunder gelding looks to me to be one brought along for handicaps, with three considerate runs in Novice/Maiden company (over 7f and 6f) under his belt last year. Staying on nicely when last seen over 6f at Lingfield in November the step up in trip and a very workable mark of 69 should give Tom Marquand something to work with here.
16:00 Hubert Hurkacz vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Tomas Martin Etcheverry 2.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
Since winning in Estoril (where he didn’t beat anyone of note), world #9 Hurkacz has (as in seasons past) looked average on clay, as always using his serve to propel him to victory. Against better opposition (on dirt) he’s been brushed aside - Ruud and even fellow big server Fritz. A win over the fading Nadal with his weakened serve and diminished movement/return game fail to convince, neither do close wins over struggling Altmaier and Challenger level players like Choinski and Llamas Ruiz or a declining Bautista Agut. And here I’m opposing him with a top-30 natural clay courter with a strong serve and forehand combination + more attacking spin. It’s been an odd European clay swing for the 24yo Argentine, running into Tsitsipas and Ruud (champions of the tournaments in Monte Carlo and Barcelona), but he has an excellent clay court game, plays aggressively and should be able to rack up service holds against a fairly poor returner.
14:00 Tommy Paul vs Dominik Koepfer
Dominik Koepfer
Win Match
50 WIN
@2.20
Lose
-50
Admittedly a bit of a punt as Koepfer (ranked 52) generally has a better record on clay than world #16 Paul. The 30yo German has just the 2 wins on clay so far this year, both here in R1 and R2, but generally is decent on clay, 26-9 since Jan 2022 and has a decent career record vs top 50 opponents on the dirt (7-10) . For his part, Paul has a pretty poor record on the red stuff, the 26yo American is just 2-7 on the dirt since Jan 2022 vs players ranked between 10 and 60. He has a terrible record here in Rome, 3-4 career and in his only previous attempt at this event (albeit four years ago) Koepfer made the QFs from Qualies.
11:00 Elena Gabriela Ruse vs Vera Zvonareva
Elena Gabriela Ruse
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.40
Win
20
Zvonareva (ranked 257) is not far off her 40th birthday and the Russian former world #7 has played just 5 matches in 2024 at a recognised level and is 1-4. She's 1-5 on clay since 2022. Ruse (ranked 148) is 12-8 on the season and 7-4 on dirt, the 26yo Romainian made QFs in Rouen recently and gavce world #23 Garcia a decent match. She really should be winning this one.
Subtotal-4
12 May 2024
17:30 Danielle Collins vs Caroline Garcia
Danielle Collins
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.33
Win
17
You would expect world #15 Collins to win here but nothing i tip at present seems to be hitting so... Teh 30yo American is on her "farewell tour" having announced her retirement at seasons end and she had a 15 match wom streak going after grabbing titles in Miami (hard) and Charleston (US clay). That run was stopped by world #2 Sabalenka in Madrid in a deciding set and Collins' prior defeat was to world #1 Swiatek. She's not played in Rome much (6-3) but with the fine weather she should enjoy conditions. She has a 4-0 H2H record over Garcia (ranked 31), all straight sets wins, incl. at Miami this year. The 30yo French player is just 6-8 here in Rome and just hasn't looked very solid this season.
17:00 Ben Shelton vs Zhizhen Zhang
Over 22.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.85
Lose
-50
It's reasonably fast in Rome when the weather is good (for a clay court) and the sun is shining today in Italy's capital. And here we have two very decent servers who've played each other just the one time before which (though in faster conditions) went to a fifth set and inlcuded a TB. Neither are what you'd describe as naturals on clay and they do rely on that big delivery, so I do like Overs here.
17:00 Juventus v Salernitana
Juventus
50 WIN
@1.14
Lose
-50
Juve have had a season not to remember but they can seasl fourth spot (and a UCL place next season) with a win here. They've won 10 of 17 at home (W10,D6,L1) and face a Salernitana side at the foot of the table, already relegated and with just 1 away win all season (W1,D4,L12).
15:30 3:30 Longchamp
Dancing Gemini
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 14.00 on 12/05 at 12:35 Best Odds Guaranteed SP 22 used instead of 14.00 taken BOG
@23.00
Win
85
With 4 places here I like Roger Teal's Camelot colt at big odds. He won a Listed race as a 2yo and wasn't beaten far whenn when finishing fifth in the Group I Futurity Trophy Stakes over a mile at Doncaster in October when last seen, that on heavy ground. He'd won on Soft ground at teh Yorkshire track prior to that so today's going should be fine and looks a big price.
Henry Longfellow
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.38
Lose
-50
Although the stable's star colt City Of Troy fluffed his lines in the British 2000 Guineas at Newmarket recently, this Dubawi colt was impressive when winning all three starts as a juvenile last season and with improvement likely, and ryan moore abaoard (and teh yard with a few winners again recently) is surely the one to beat.
15:15 Atletico Madrid v Celta Vigo
Atletico Madrid
50 WIN
@1.40
Win
20
Atleti can really only seasl the fourth spot in La Liga this term (and thus a UCL place next season) but can do that with a win tonight. They've won 15 of 17 games this term at the Wanda Metropolitano and have won 4 of their last 6 matches. Visitors Celta (16th) have a few points to gather to avoid teh drop but they have just 3 away wins this season (W3,D5,L9).
15:07 3:07 Newcastle
Buzz Box
Daily Racing
25 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@13.00
Void
0
Bryan Smart's 3yo Adaay gelding looks a bit of value here as he won on his debut for the yard in a Noices heat over C&D in January then put in another good effort over the minimum trip here LTO. Should be more to come from just 3lb higher with the same decent 3 pound claimer aboard. SkyBet paying 4 places here.
Cross The Tracks
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 2.25 used instead of 2.20 takenBOG
@2.25
Win
62
Bet of the day for me here as Richard Spencer's 3yo gelding clearly likes it here at Newcastle. He trounced his rivals in a 7f handicap here in March (3 to 4 lengths clear through the last 2 furlongs, the field well strung out behind). He was then an excellent second in class 2 over C&D 6 weeks ago, where the third and fourth had been running consistently in decent AW handicaps this winter, so the form of that race looks very solid in the context of this lower class race.
14:50 2:50 Longchamp
Romantic Style
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 6.30 used instead of 4.50 takenBOG
@6.30
Win
1
The Godolphin team seem to have returned to form this season and Charlie Appleby's Night of Thunder filly made good progress last year after an inauspicious start. She was supplemented for this race after having won the Group III Prix Imprudence Stakes on her reappearance at Deauville last month and with Buick aboard, surely a worthy favourite.
14:25 2:25 Leopardstown
Buttons
Daily Racing
30 EW
@2.62
Lose
-18
Aiden O'Brien's 3yo daughter of Kingman should Kingman improve from her comeback run here last month. She was a staying on third in the Group 3 Priory Belle Stakes on that occasion and should strip fitter for that, so looks one for teh forecast to me.
One Look
Daily Racing
60 WIN
@2.10
Lose
-60
Paddy Twomey's 2yo Gleneagles filly has won both her two starts in some style, initially at the Curragh and latterly a 5-runner heat at Cork (7f, heavy) 43 days ago, pushed out. The form of each of those wins looks decent and she has leading claims here.
14:00 Taylor Fritz vs Sebastian Korda
Over 22.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
This could easily backfire as neither of these two Americans are what you'd describe as naturals on clay and they do rely on a big first delivery. But It's reasonably fast in Rome when the weather is good (for a clay court) and the sun is shining today in Italy's capital. These two decent servers have played each other just the one time before which was on slower clay in Monte carlo last season, and that saw Fritz win 7-6,7-5. He won 83% of his 1st serve points (and saved both BPs faced) in his first match here, Korda won 78% of first serves and saved 3 of 5 BPs faced (against arguably a tougher opponent). I think breaks will be few here.
12:30 St Pauli v VfL Osnabruck
St Pauli
50 WIN
@1.20
Win
10
Second placed St Pauli are just a point behind leaders Holstein and with just two matches left a win at home here against already relegated (and bottom of the table) Osnabruck would be a huge plus. They've won 10 of 15 at home (W10,D5,L1), the best record in the division. The visitors have the worst away record, just 2 wins on their travels (W2,D5,L9). The hosts have won 5 of their last 8 games, Osnabruck have lost 5 of their last 8.
11:30 Dayana Yastremska vs Aryna Sabalenka
Over 18.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.83
Lose
-50
This could go horribly wrong, because these two are hard to read but if Yastremska (ranked 33) can fire she has the game to trouble world #2 Sabalenka who has a patchy record here in Rome. The 26yo from Belarus is just 6-6 here in her career and in fact is 0-3 vs Yastremska in her career (though all 3 matches were 3+ years ago). Sabalenka has struggled to beat most players easily of late so I'll risk Overs here.
10:00 Maria Sakkari vs Anhelina Kalinina
Maria Sakkari
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.30
Win
15
World #8 Sakkari really should win here as although the 28yo Greek has found today's opponent Kalinina (ranked 31) pretty tough in both prior meetings (the H2H is 1-1 and both matches took a deciding set) she has a decent record in Rome. Her 27yo Ukrainian did make the final here 12 months ago in which she had to retire but she's not been in great form lately and played just 2 games in her first match here as her opponent had to retire in R1.
Over 20.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.83
Lose
-50
I would expect world #8 Sakkari to winhere but the 28yo Greek has a tendency to either blow opponents away or struggle. And she's found today's opponent Kalinina (ranked 31) pretty tough in both prior meetings. The H2H is 1-1 and both matches took a deciding set. The 27yo Ukrainian made the final here 12 months ago in which she had to retire. It's hard to read the form she's in given her opponent had to retuire in R1 but we know she likes it here so I think this number is too low.
Anhelina Kalinina 4.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.83
Lose
-50
I think world #8 Sakkari wins here but the 28yo Greek has found today's opponent Kalinina (ranked 31) pretty tough in both prior meetings. The H2H is 1-1 and both matches took a deciding set. The 27yo Ukrainian made the final here 12 months ago in which she had to retire. It's hard to read the form she's in given her opponent had to retuire in R1 but we know she likes it here but I feel she can keep this tight.
Subtotal-218
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