JackpotRod

I'll get you an odds on shots beaten, but also give you some long odds winners with hopefully some insightful reasoning to help you to decide whether to follow me in or not. Back all my own selections with my own cash.

Estimated Prizes
this month

£0

Estimated Prize money
this month

JackpotRod's Tips History

21 April 2024

18:15 6:15 Musselburgh

Liamarty Dreams

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@6.00

Win

250

Seemingly usually needs the run on reappearance, but reappeared here with a win. That win has also been franked by the runner up who has gone in since. A prior win over course and distance bodes well for a return here, even if he is probably handicapped to the hilt. Better ground should hold no particular concerns, and he tends to put his best runs together in batches so I'll chance him to follow up last times franked success.

1 member found this comment useful

17:15 5:15 Musselburgh

My Little Queens

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

Course winner whose mark has tumbled from 78 to 69 in 4 AW runs off the back of a peak turf effort in a class 3. Bottom weight for this class 4, if she can resume progress back on turf and run anywhere near her 2023 form she can belt this mark. She won off this mark just over a year ago, and subsequently won off 5lbs higher too. She needs a turnaround in form, and needs to prove she stays this far, though she did largely stay 1m4f on the one occasion she faced it in this level of race. She is 6122314 in class 4 turf races, equating to 4/7 a place

1 member found this comment useful

20 April 2024

15:35 3:35 Ayr

My Silver Lining

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

The slightly reduced trip and better ground are interesting for My Silver Lining, who only really faded out of it late on over just further than this last time. She’s a lb better off with Mr Incredible, and a few lbs better than Beuport although he did assert well late. She also lost a shoe there though for an added excuse. This could just be one tough race too far, but then she did win on her last start of last season so perhaps she go out with a bang off a low weight again.

1 member found this comment useful

15:15 3:15 Newbury

Dancing Magic

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Lose

-50

2 last time backed in here in Talis Evolvere and Navagio tempers enthusiasm slightly, but I'm inclined to look elsewhere and forgive Dancing Magic his run in the Balmoral. He ended up trying to cut a lone furrow down the middle with all the horses on the far side rail fairing best. You can run a line straight through it, and look back to his Group form last season that would have a mark of 96 being fair enough. 2nd here on his 2nd start, he had a decent 2yo season, and whilst he didn't step on as 3yo necessarily, he did open up as a 3yo with a decent 3rd in the Craven. That run came with no headgear, which was introduced a few starts later, and interestingly that is removed here. Jim Crowley being back on is no negative, as he's been on for some of his better runs. The balance of his form just has him better than a middling handicapper in this field, so he looks worth a play.

1 member found this comment useful

14:40 2:40 Newbury

Son

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@21.00

Lose

-50

This race looks a bit more open than the market suggests, and one that generally has one go well in this is Richard Hannon. He pitches Son in here back to the scene of his only win. He'll want very yard of this it seems, but can be helped by a fair forecast pace in which he could be well involved anyway. With just 4lbs to find on official ratings with the top of these, 20/1 looks generous enough for one that has fair form around some smart horses. He may want the ground to dry a bit, but I think he should be half the price so I'll give him a chance.

1 member found this comment useful

19 April 2024

17:45 5:45 Bath

Exponista

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@51.00

Lose

-50

3.5L 6th when last seen in a pretty hot Group 3, she shaped very much there like 5f would be in her favour. She was seemingly in front with a furlong to go before drifting left and fading out of it, but I think that gives her a chance better than her odds down in class. With no glut of pace on, she could be the one to cut the running, and getting 10lbs from her elders (along with plenty more of these), she could certainly hit the frame. If she can get to the front or forward, a tendency to hang left could inconvenience enough in behind to make it uncomfortable too. A high draw could be against her in that regard, but this has gone to high drawn horses over the years.

18 April 2024

15:35 3:35 Newmarket

Cambridge

Daily Racing

25 EW

@8.50

Lose

-50

One thing this horse will do is stay, and I'd hope Ryan Moore makes plenty use of that fact here and takes on Champaign Prince for the lead to test the stamina of those stepping up to this trip. I think his run last time was better than it appeared behind a 20/1 Derby shot when getting shuffled back in the pack and having to swing round the field to get anywhere near the runaway winner. A previous win over a mile saw him do so from forward, and whilst there isn't too much in that form it did demonstrate he's up for a battle. That was on GF ground too and he fended off the closers off which bodes well. Aiden will have had a good look at the current fav in here having faced him a couple of times, so I reckon he'll send something that can get competitive. Native Approach has got improvement to find, and Alcantor could just want more testing ground than he'll get here.

1 member found this comment useful

15:00 3:00 Newmarket

Commanche Falls

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@9.00

Lose

-50

Wide open renewal, and knowing my luck the front end won't be the place to be today. But regardless, I think Commanche Falls is worth a go here. 7 year olds have won 3 of the last 5 renewals of this interestingly, and he ticks that box, even if you clearly have to be wary of one of the 4 year olds taking a leap forward from their 3yo campaigns. He finished last season strong, and he has won twice on seasonal debut, whilst also finishing 1/2L 2nd on another. He blew out last time when reappearing on unsuitable Heavy ground so I think that can be forgiven and he'll be ready to roll. The draw in 11 is potentially unfavourable, but he can either get a nice tow from Spycatcher, or reverse those roles as he has been taken prominent in the past. Good ground will suit him well, and a stronger pace than last year with a bigger field can benefit him even if pace maps suggest there's no obvious front runner.

1 member found this comment useful

17 April 2024

17:20 5:20 Newmarket

User Amistoso

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

Has hit the line strong enough on all starts so far between 7-8f, this horse should take to the step up in trip on breeding. He beat the Fav Stormy Waves when the pair met at Doncaster, and was coming away from him slightly at the finish too. That was off levels, and he gets. A few lbs here so could just be pretty well handicapped off 83. A debut 4th on the July course suggested he can handle the undulations of this track, and that was a finish in and around two horses now rated 100+ too. I think he’s of minor interest at the odds, even if he won’t prove to be the best of these in time.

15:35 3:35 Newmarket

Spiritual

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

Dance Sequence looks like she’ll relish every yard of this, so isn’t taken on lightly, but I do think Spiritual is overpriced on the bare face of her form. She attempted to hack up in the Rockfel here when not getting home off a fairly blistering pace, and considering how hard she went I feel she was far from being completely disgraced. She’s bred for a longer trip so perhaps she just didn’t have the overall to go that quickly, and the step up in trip should logically prove fruitful. She wasn’t far behind horses now rated 110-112, and on that evidence she sets the form standard. She was unbalanced into the dip which is a concern, but the fact the Gosden’s send her back her for a reappearance run almost intrigues more as they must think she’ll learn from that. I suspect she’ll be ridden with a touch more restraint here if settling better, and perhaps ground with at least some sort of juice in it can see her to better effect.

1 member found this comment useful

15:00 3:00 Newmarket

The Foxes

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@12.00

Lose

-50

The one that intrigued the most was The Foxes, having his first run here since finishing 2nd in the Craven last year. His 13th of 13 needs to be passed over from last time in Riyadh, but otherwise his 3 runs since the Derby have been solid enough even if he needs to run at least to his rating. His win over track and trip reads well enough ahead of the subsequent King Edward 4th who chased home a couple of the stars of last season in Continuous and King Of Steel, so perhaps the return to this track can spark something, and back in trip for one that has looked a suspect stayer over further on occasion just doesn't look a negative. He's got an entry over a mile too so perhaps there is a plan to explore him over shorter trips. A lack of pace on might not help his hold up style which is a concern, but all told I think he's a big price to hit the frame in this relatively easier company than he's faced on many occasion

1 member found this comment useful

13:50 1:50 Newmarket

Wallop

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

Tempted enough by Woven again, but I thought this could go to the unexposed Wallop. He holds a Heritage handicap entry in May for which he may need a little bit more to achieve that entry. On all his form he should prove better than a 95 horse, let alone the fact he’s got a 3lb claimer on. Granted the best of that was back in 2022, so clearly he’s had some issues on just his 5th run here. Interestingly he remains an entire so they surely think something of him, and a 3rd here (July course) on debut proves he probably handles these climbs. A subsequent 6/1 5th in the Mill Reef was hardly a disgrace given the calibre of opposition, and a subsequent 2nd chasing home a now 102 rated horse reads well. A major lack of pace seems to favour anything forward, and generally that’s where he’s wanted to be, so he could get a nice tow into it from Just A Spark who seemingly has a want for the lead.

1 member found this comment useful

16 April 2024

14:55 2:55 Newmarket

Theoryofeverything

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Win

Yard switcher that was 3rd in a pretty hot Group 3 Greenham having won on debut, he could go well 1st time up. RPRs have his best races in ground that isn’t purely soft, so a return to a better surface can spark a bit of a revival. He’s quite stoutly bred so it’s fair to say more has been expected of him, but I’d say the ability is there if he puts it together. you’ll hopefully see a bit of a pace collapse on the cards with a few pace angles in here, and I wonder if he’s just better suited to a mile than the longer trips he’s faced the last twice. Going for last years winning trainer, who also saddles top weight and can get a yard switcher ready to roll.

1 member found this comment useful

13:50 1:50 Newmarket

Isle Of Lismore

Daily Racing

25 EWNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 17.00 used instead of 15.00 takenBOG

@17.00

Win

13 April 2024

16:00 4:00 Aintree

Eldorado Allen

Daily Racing

25 EW

@101.00

Lose

-50

Eldorado Allen went well in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury when staying on past beaten horses to take 4th in that 3m2f attritional test. The way he was ridden it looked a bit of a fact finding mission to me, and I'd say he did more than impress at the trip absolutely pinging the last. Notably he gets an 11lb swing with Mahler Mission from that race who is 12/1 here, and over a shorter trip he looked to me to be closing enough when hard ridden. That's a fair weight swing to factor in, even if you do need to forgive 2 efforts since. This is his first foray over this far, but his dam did produce a 4m+ winner which provides some hope he can be a bit of a fly in the ointment against the more sexy younger types. It's been a while since a qualified Veteran has won this, but I'm happy enough to overlook that for a horse that has only just turned 10 being foaled on the 1st of April.

2 members found this comment useful

15:05 3:05 Aintree

Champ

Daily Racing

25 EW

@34.00

Lose

-50

11 of these split officially by just 9lbs on ratings so it's ultra competitive as can be expected. Whilst way past his prime, Champ at such a big price does intrigue enough for me to get involved. He’s only got 3lbs to find on official ratings with the best of these, and whilst that flatters him on this seasons form I don’t think he’s run too badly in defeat on either occasion even if he does have form to turn round with some of these. Cheekpieces are reached for which are of interest for a horse that has always looked like he’d benefit from some headgear, and a return to soft ground is interesting given he has a sound record on the surface.

1 member found this comment useful

14:30 2:30 Aintree

Demnat

Daily Racing

25 EW

@21.00

Lose

-50

Has gone the wrong way since excelling on UK debut, this brother to Sceau Royal can surely rate higher than this in time. He’s chucked in down the bottom of the weights this time round with Charlie taking over the steering again. He went well enough in an attritional Kim Muir before flattening out up the hill, but with this harder race on paper littered with question marks I think he’s worth a punt at the odds to go well off a relative feather weight. He could easily get a soft lead here if he wants it, and we’ve seen already in a handicap a horse stride away at the front off a low weight.

1 member found this comment useful

13:20 1:20 Aintree

Ramo

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@26.00

Lose

-50

One last chance for Ramo who just looks overlooked at a decent price. I never like to see a horse go up the weights finishing 2nd, but it looks for fair enough reason. He did beat Gowel Road who came out and ran a good race at Cheltenham to tie the form into a few of these. Fresher into this I think he can go well in suitable ground. His sole win this year came fresh, so it’s interesting he’s been kept off the track since his 2nd in January. A flatter track can hopefully help him see out the trip,

1 member found this comment useful

12 April 2024

17:15 5:15 Aintree

Luttrell Lad

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

Chancing a last time backed in this with Luttrell Lad who prefers to forward but got caught out by a strong pace last time before staying on best. This should be a tear up given it’s conditionals in a big field, and on Heavy it should pay to side with one that has every chance of getting home. He won on Heavy off 6lbs lower, and indeed 2 of his 4 wins have come from just 3 starts on soft or worse so he’s unexposed in that regard. With Iles claiming 7, his record speaks for itself being 10 from 30 this season.

2 members found this comment useful

16:05 4:05 Aintree

Grandads Cottage

Daily Racing

25 EW

@26.00

Lose

-50

Take your pick in here, and I’ll chance Grandads Cottage to go well off a light weight. Barring a terrible mistake at the last he probably would have been coming in here under a penalty. He stayed plenty further here over the regular fences off a big weight, so there is a fair chance he can stay well in this shorter race off a light weight if he can put in a relatively error free round. Not much more to this one, but I like his price.

1 member found this comment useful

15:30 3:30 Aintree

Pic DOrhy

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@5.50

Lose

-50

Last years winner has had a light but consistent campaign, and really it’s that consistency that appeals. His only real blip was Shiskin putting him away back in February 2023. His last race can hardly read much better, finishing ahead of L’Homme Presse and Ahoy Senor albeit the trip probably being more suitable for him. Harry got him into a great rhythm that day from the front, and whilst he’s unlikely to be afforded that luxury here I do think he can get some of these at it from a long way out and could put some pressure on Jonbon’s jumping early enough to cause him a problem at this new trip. He is unraced on soft this season, but his last two runs on soft arguably produced 2 of his best efforts. This is a deeper race than last year, but all told I think he can still get competitive again.

1 member found this comment useful

14:55 2:55 Aintree

Golden Ace

Daily Racing

25 EWNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@11.00

Void

Dysart Enos holds Golden Ace on form of their Aintree bumper, but the latter has some proven form this and I’m surprised she sits at a double figure price here. I would worry about Dysart Enos coming here off that interrupted season, and slightly question what she’s beaten this season. The form of the selections run last time has already been franked by the 4th Jade De Grugy who won a Grade 1 in Ireland, also beating Jetara there who had previously split the Albert Bartlett 1st and 3rd. It’s different trips, but it just looks solid form wise for a horse at such a big price. You couldn’t help but be impressed by the way she did it last time, and a fairly guaranteed pace can play into her hands again if Lorcan Williams holds onto her for as long as he can again. I suppose of note she was in receipt of 5lbs in that Cheltenham race, but she looked more than fair value for that, and does get 7lbs from the boys here to aid her cause and only give her 2lbs to find on ratings.

1 member found this comment useful

14:20 2:20 Aintree

Theatre Man

Daily Racing

25 EW

@10.00

Lose

-50

The Skelton army have got to be feared in a race with chances all over, but I’ll chance a play on Theatre Man. An early faller when sent off Fav for the plate, he reverts to Hurdles off 4lbs lower. Yet to get off the mark despite showing promise over fences, he has to be open to improvement heading back to this sphere. Both wins have come in soft ground, and he hasn’t been beaten far on his other two completions on it. Heavy is an unknown, but may play to his strengths. The real concern is a lack of pace combined with the fact he stays further, but I’d hope the big field just goes a bit harder than many might want to and it could just play into the hands of one this time that will be doing his best work late.

1 member found this comment useful

11 April 2024

16:40 4:40 Aintree

Black Gerry

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Lose

-50

Small chance on Black Gerry from down the bottom of the weights here. He's got an interesting enough profile, and has been racing saddling big weights this season. He turned round his form last time when a decent 2nd behind Scarface, and he handles Heavy from his Novice days. Two efforts in this grade of handicap resulted in two pull ups, but I wonder if the shorter distance can bring something out of him. Shorter than 2m4f he has a record of 9/12 a place, with all of his 6 wins under rules coming shy of that trip. Whilst clearly no wholly reliable, I think off a low weight at the right trip he can be of interest in an open race.

16:05 4:05 Aintree

Rebel Dawn Rising

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@19.00

Lose

-50

On the basis that the Fav Its On The Line may just need every yard of this 2m5f, I think he's worth taking on. There are multiple cases to be made beyond him, and I'll chance Rebel Dawn Rising to go well. He has the touch of the monkey about him based on his last run, when he looked the winner from a way out. He took some coaxing, and then almost stopped over the last before picking up again. This reduced trip is of interest for him, as he looks a strong traveller that could well be swinging on the bridle for longer than most. Heavy ground is an unknown, but he has won his last three completions on soft. On his non completion he looked like he was going to win by miles but unseated at the last, incidentally the same fence that he almost stopped at last time. On the evidence of that race again, the drop in trip could suit him well even if it might take a miracle to get him round.

14:55 2:55 Aintree

Bravemansgame

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Lose

-50

Bravemansgame just has to be overpriced on his best exploits. He gets the cheekpiece treatment, and Nicholls memorably applied them to Clan Des Obeaux to devastating effect in this race a couple of years back. His record with them is sound, being 10/18 a place in the last two years when first applied, 7 of those winning. This race is littered with horses disappointing in the Gold Cup and then coming here and running well, and I don't think he ran a particularly bad race in the gold cup in truth. He was probably undone by the ground, so any drying in it will be a bonus and it appears there has been some. I think in a race that may well set up for one with the best turn of foot, I think it could just be him, and at double figure odds I'm willing to chance him in this company.

09 April 2024

16:15 4:15 Thirsk

Gemini Star

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@9.00

Lose

-50

Sound record at 5f if 2122, with the 1 being here. She's got a bit to prove off this mark, but surely the step back to 5 can bring about some improvement on that basis alone in a race that should see enough throat cutting up front to bring her closing style into play. With her sole win coming when fresh, it's a fair argument she can go well on seasonal debut. Haynes has an exceptional 6/10 strike rate here, and is 8/10 a place.

07 April 2024

16:32 4:32 Carlisle

Marown

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@5.50

Lose

-50

Pulled up on his last two starts on Heavy, I think the current fav Two For Gold is worth taking on as a result. It's a pretty competitive market, but I'll chance Marown to go well off a feather weight. He's saddles fair weight carries, notably taking 11st12lbs round a few starts back on Heavy ground over 3m. 3lbs below that after two sub par efforts since. He could represent a bit of lone pace in the race, and if he can make the most of the low weight which will be nearly a stone less than he's ever saddled, then he can be in the shake up as the freshest horse in the race.

1 member found this comment useful

15:48 3:43 Bath

Punchbowl Flyer

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

Vulnerable to unexposed types, but brings a solid 1162 record on heavy to the mix, with the 6 being a not too distant one. Dropping 3lbs for his last run looks generous enough, and Dobie's claim negates the fact he's out of the handicap by a lb. He should be more forward than pace maps suggest, and a want for further can see him staying on late if he can get a decent track position in 2. He looks drawn alongside a pace angle in 1 so it could be a potential burnup with his feather weight likely to come into play late on. If he resumes anywhere near his peak efforts he can be involved in the shakeup. 1 from 12 in this class is a negative I'm happy to overlook given how well he went in a class 2 when last seen.

1 member found this comment useful

06 April 2024

15:15 3:15 Kempton

Circuit Breaker 0.00

Daily Racing

25 EWNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@11.00

Win

I think if Circuit Breaker was still with Beckett he'd probably be vying for favouritism in this, but as it is he's switched to Jonjo O'Neill who hardly has a good record on the flat, and is from 39 here since 2009. So that negative out the way, let's look at the positives. He's got James Doyle aboard who brings a record of 22/52 a place over 2m here in that same period, 11 of which won. With horses drawn in stall 1 in that sample, he is 5/8 a place, winning 4, and being a short head away from making that 5 winners. On all 4 winning occasions he took the horse prominent or made all from the inside draw, so I would assume he will try and do the same on this horse. The horse was a prominent runner 2 starts ago over course and distance, winning in a time that was 3-4 seconds faster than Novel Legend won over course and distance on the same going and off the same weight.

1 member found this comment useful

14:40 2:40 Kempton

Valsad

Daily Racing

25 EW

@21.00

Lose

-50

On balance I don't think the front two are too hard to take on here, with ew prices about the rest. Intinso would be my pick of the short prices, but I'll chance Valsad to nick to the front and stay on. With entries over further he could put the stamina of these to the test with the right fractions if he isn't taken on. There looks a fair pace on, but no other particular front runner necessarily. He looked to have way more in hand than the finishing distance last time, and a 5lb rise might not take too much negotiating. He's vulnerable to something less exposed and 4 year olds have a much better record in this, but it’s a real muddling race overall, and I just think given the potential shape of the race combined with a lesser weight burden than he's been saddling in lower classes, he's certainly one to consider overpriced off the back of a solid winter campaign on the AW.

1 member found this comment useful

05 April 2024

18:40 6:40 Musselburgh

Restandbethankful

Daily Racing

25 EW

@34.00

Lose

-50

I think a small case can be made for Restandbethankful off the back of a poor effort last time. A 92L defeat is just too bad to be a true running for this horse, who prior to that was acquitting himself well. Two efforts on soft/Heavy in his two preceding runs would bode well for a return to the surface, with him being unexposed on it with a 222 record. He was an 11L winner over this trip on seasonal debut off just a few lbs lower than this, and has since gone close off higher marks than this on too. This is the easiest class 2 handicap he's contested based on his weight carry so I've no particular worry about him being out classed. He may be unlikely to dominate which is possibly an excuse for his last run, but there's less pace on here in that it's likely to be him and Duyfken rather than 3 or 4 of them going forward, so the pair could have the field on the stamina stretch as both get further. On the openness of the race, I think he's overpriced to hit the frame.

18:10 6:10 Musselburgh

Jem In Em

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@7.50

Lose

-50

Blinkers generated a peak RPR for this horse last time out and are retained here. He's up 2lbs for being done on the nod there, but was so spring heeled at the last I think he can step forward again. I feel the fact he gets an extra couple of furlongs can suit him here as he was seemingly outpaced into the straight last time before really making strides up the run in. There looks to be a fairly strong pace guaranteed, and assuming there is some throat cutting up front I think he can be the one to capitalise with that probably want for further. His first weight carry in handicaps below 11st can aid his cause.

17:05 5:05 Musselburgh

Autumn Return

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@11.00

Lose

-50

Autumn Return has a sound record fresh under rules and has been given a break for this. Off breaks bigger than 175 days under rules she is 11421, so the 72 day break has to be a positive. She ran 3 races between November and January and acquitted herself well off 12st each time, most notably perhaps winning over course and distance on the forecast soft ground off just 2lbs lower. She might not have as much in hand as some of these, but overall she has a solid profile at the trip, winning her last 2 over 2m4f. Whilst beaten over just shy of this trip last time, she was possibly undone by some Heavy in the description. Given 7 horses were still strongly pitching entering the home turn I think that really just turned into a sprint for home which possibly just didn't suit her. The way she was left alone late alone would suggest to me that just wasn't the target, especially given she opened the season winning a qualifier for this.

1 member found this comment useful

04 April 2024

19:00 7:00 Wolverhampton

Woodstock

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@6.00

Win

250

Considering how hard he pulled on his first run for 252 days, this horse did well to finish just a neck off the front in 4th on seasonal and trainer debut. He can surely step on for that, and brings a solid 2114 record on the AW, not being beaten far on both occasions. He's drawn well in 2 to get a nice tow from the pace angle in 1, and it could leave the pair clear of the remainder if those drawn wide can't get in. With seemingly stamina to get further, if Giant is allowed to go too quickly from 1 it could set up nicely for this horse to force a few wide if he can get track position. He goes for an in form trainer and jockey, with the trainer having 13 placed from her last 23, with 6 of those being winners. Mason meanwhile has 8 placed from her last 14, including 4 winners. Combined they have a better strike rate on the AW than turf, and with 5 of 7 combined winners on the AW coming over 7f, they are also 13/22 a place with that combination.

03 April 2024

19:00 7:00 Kempton

King Cabo

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@11.00

Lose

-50

Poor on his last two starts so doesn't come without risks, but has a sound record at 7f and is nudged up in class here. As a result he'll be off an absolute feather weight with claim, getting a stone or more all round. He's 2/3 a place in class 3 company, and has a record of 6/8 a place over this trip. 2 of his 3 wins have come here, where he has been awarded RPRs of between 82 and 86 on his last 3 runs. He looks drawn well in 1 in a race that seemingly lacks pace, and he can be a pace angle too if he can keep Zero Carbon from nabbing the rail. With the right fractions he can be staying on late with that low weight carry factored in.

02 April 2024

16:45 4:45 Pontefract

Phoenix Fire

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

An open affair, and I'll happily take a chance on this horse who could well need the run but looks a fair price. A winner on Heavy as a Novice, he finished 5th on the surface but off effectively a 10lb higher mark than today back in August, and that was off 9st10lbs as an obvious excuse. A couple of runs over Course and Distance showed some sort of promise he handles the track which is always a bonus here. I just think on the overall look of his form he is better than a mark of 66, with the real hope being it's too hard to make up ground in the going. Indeed, in the last 5 races where horses have gone from the front here in fields bigger than 9 on heavy, 2 have won, so there is a chance of it and a lower weight carry helps his cause. Dods has had a solid start to the year, operating above his usual place strike rate. More notably, with Pyle aboard his horses have a record of 4/5 a place (15321) in 2024 for an added positive to his ew hopes.

15:15 3:15 Pontefract

Elegant Erin

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@9.50

Lose

-50

Glorious Angel looks a fairly solid Fav here, but a lot can go wrong over the trip and she doesn't do a great deal of winning. I'll chance one with a fair course record that will handle the ground and gets in down the bottom here in Elegant Erin. She's a record of 23152 here, equating to 4/5 a place, and with a record of 12023133 on Soft/Heavy equating to 5/8 a place. She gets a big swing in the weights with Spoof and is close enough in price with that horse to think she is overpriced even at 8/1, and 2 summer efforts at this level suggest she may not be outclassed.

31 March 2024

16:15 4:15 Plumpton

Inferno Sacree

Daily Racing

38 EWNAP

@34.00

Lose

-77

Inferno Sacre might find this grade a step too far, but if he's worth chancing anywhere it's here. He has a record of 31114 at the track which I think is too good to ignore, albeit the 3rd being distant enough. There could be a fair pace on here so he won't get his own way in front, but being off a feather 10st could bode well for this ground versatile sort. He wasn't shy of the winning post this time last year, notching all of his 5 wins between January and May. His last race has worked out well with 2nd going in since, and a horse behind in 5th placing too. He does get further, so as long as he doesn't expend too much energy going with the pace I think he can be swinging at the finish at a big price.

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15:54 3:54 Market Rasen

Highway One O Five 0.00

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@7.50

Lose

-50

Chris Gordon is having a slog of a season so is hard to fancy to turn the tide, but this horse takes a fair drop in class and is sent up in trip here. His sole run over further than the minimum trip was a fair 3rd in a bumper, and a running on 4th at Newbury over 2m on soft also suggested he may want more of a trip. His breeding suggests as much, being related to horses with a want for further and there's just not much to like in here. He's surely a bit more well thought of than a class 5 handicapper having raced in three class 3 events over Hurdles, and I think he's worth a small play. Was hoping for a double figure price but he saw some support early and should drift out again I suspect, so best odds if you have it.

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15:40 3:40 Plumpton

Rose Of Arcadia

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@5.50

Lose

-50

Young Freddie Gingell takes this horse to a lb below her winning mark from last time with his claim, and I think she can go well here. She has 4 wins from 5 career runs in the month of March, and is on the right side of the weight carries over a trip she won't mind. With a few of these needing to prove they get this far I'd rather have one on side that can in this sort of race, and I think she won with a bit more in hand than it appeared last time when getting on top after the last fence.

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30 March 2024

15:15 3:15 Haydock

Thor De Cerisy

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@8.00

Lose

-50

A first jaunt into Vets company for this horse who finds himself down to one of his lowest weight carries for a good while. He's put up 4 sound efforts on Heavy ground in his last 4 runs, and essentially down in grade here I think he can go well with Harry Cobden back aboard. He was gifted the race last time, but showed some slick jumping throughout and could be miles better than the 1lb rise. A facile winner the time before that, he seems to me to have plenty more in the hand if his jumping can remain as slick. He was comfortably clear when falling at the last on his first run in 2024 to almost make it 3 from 3 in the calendar year, so as long as he can get into a decent rhythm I see no reason again that he can't be doing good work late on.

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13:50 1:50 Musselburgh

Johnny Ringo

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@9.00

Void

Fav to me looks priced more on what he should/could/will be rather than what he is, even if his heavy ground 5th reads well. He does look well handicapped and open to any amount of improvement as with most of these stepping from 2 to 3, but then I think Johnny Ringo ticks the same boxes, and he looks worth a chance at the odds to me. 2L 2nd giving 7lbs to a now 92 rated horse reads well enough for a mark of 82, with that also being on Heavy. You'd be hard pressed to say he didn't see out the mile there given the weight difference between the pair so the step back to it intrigues. He looks a pace angle in the race with it not looking too ferocious, and if he ends up being lone pace he could take some pegging back.

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29 March 2024

16:40 4:40 Newcastle

Talis Evolvere

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@34.00

Win

990

There looks a genuine lack of pace here, and whilst it can seemingly be hard to make all over a mile here, one horse in Talis Evolvere could be off the front end and has a very low weight to take through the race. 12th of 12 nudged up to this level last time, that was over 1m2f and he was caught 3 wide throughout in a race run at a canter that just didn't suit him at all. Form prior to that links him in with these, no less a 2nd to 10/1 Fantastic Fox with whom he gets a 10lb swing in the weights for a 1/2L defeat. I think a lot does hinge on the start, but overall I think his price is just too big if you're willing to ignore his last run. Taking 8st5lbs through the race I think he can hang tough if he gets forward under a claimer who is working to a solid 19/61 horses this season in the top 2 in 4yo AW races.

16:10 4:10 Newcastle

Base Note

Daily Racing

25 EW

@51.00

Lose

-50

Base Note I thought was worth a small play with the market giving up on him. He completely missed the break last time when finishing behind a few of these, but given the way he started he did well to finish where he did perhaps. Whilst it might not be within reach, a mark of 105 doesn’t have him out of this completely on his best efforts, and it will take that to win here. Only 4 starts ago he was ahead of Elegant Man giving away 4lbs, and he'll be up against the same horse who is currently 11/2 here, but he'll be in receipt of a 10lb swing. That's enough in itself for me to have a play at 50s with a genuine chance of a pace collapse here which can work out well for him given his most recent wins have come over further. He's drawn around all the pace angles which could also serve to help him away well this time given he has ridden forward in the past.

28 March 2024

20:00 8:00 Southwell

Dandys Derriere

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@15.00

Lose

-50

This horse has 2 or so lengths to find with 4/1 Westmorian, but gets a 10lb swing with that horse here with a 5lb claimer added. He was a close 2nd over course and distance off a mark of 67, and adjusted he's 4lbs lower than that run so must have a chance of getting involved. 5/7 a place on the AW since August, including 2 of his 3 wins, he could remain in sound enough heart notching consistent RPRs between 74 and 76 and an balance his price looks more than fair.

18:30 6:30 Southwell

Beau Gars

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Win

I don't think the fav is bullet proof here even if looking well in under a penalty. Prior form suggests he is worth taking on so short. Beau Gars has been running in Maiden's as a 4yo so running under significant penalties, and a mark of 69 could underestimate him here stepping into handicap company. He was 4th over a mile at Kempton 2L behind a horse rated 77 but giving away 19lbs. In 2nd was a 63 rated horse who was getting 26lbs from the selection. I think there is enough in that to give this one a chance in a race that lacks any obvious pace, with this horse possibly being one of a couple that could take this forward. Osborne is 7/21 a place with his handicap debutants in the last year on the AW.

27 March 2024

18:30 6:30 Kempton

Juantorena

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@9.50

Lose

-50

A mark of 74 looks feasible for this bottom weight horse. He was only a couple of lengths off a 94 rated horse off levels when last seen, and whilst that horse has been beaten well enough since those defeats were in group company. He gets a stone from the top weight 88 rated horse here who could punch through that mark himself by rights, but the remainder look a bit more exposed or already in the handicappers grip. Baldings sound handicap debut record is hard to ignore about one that has an ew look to him, with the trainer 15/37 a place with handicap debutants here in the last 5 years. The horse could be best left to take a lead and see if stamina in his pedigree can hold out from this low weight.

24 March 2024

16:30 4:30 Ascot

Certainly Red

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@6.50

Lose

-50

A nice weight carry for this horse on ground he will appreciate stood out stepping into Vets company for the first time. He's proven to be a stout stayer saddling fair weights, so below 11st for the first time since his reappearance effort I think bodes well. He's now a lb below his last winning mark and back to a trip that looks favourable. His first win over fences came over 3m, and he's raced over this trip or just north of it on 5 occasions since and racked up a record of BD1142, so I think the combination of the trip on a stiff track added to this ground can see him competitive off the back of last times pull up where just two horses finished.

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15:05 3:05 Doncaster

Woven

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@9.50

Win

With a record fresh in his last 3 seasons of 221, and a record here of 2313, Woven looked of interest. Ground on the soft side looks no issue at all, and he's saddled between 9st8lbs-10st2lbs on his last 5 starts. Prior to that was his reappearance effort off a 3lb lower mark saddling 9st, so this return to a lower weight of 9st2lbs could prove fruitful. He also gets Phil Dennis back on who also won on him in that reappearance run last season. The horse doesn't do a lot of winning and will probably have to do it the hard way from the back of the field, but there looks to be something in his favour overall.

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