an innocent man

I am always trying to learn. I tend to avoid jockeys that I think are not so good. I have minimum prices I will take, depending on the number of runners. Fave jockeys are William Buick and Daryl Jacob, who I think is still brilliant. Favourite racecourse is Sandown Park. Not keen on Ascot or the all weather courses at Kempton or Lingfield. Tend to put a bigger stake on bigger priced horses.

Estimated Prizes
this month

£0

Estimated Prize money
this month

an innocent man's Tips History

19 April 2024

15:55 3:55 Ayr

Royal Mer

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.75

Lose

-50

Royal Mer has hit top form and is still well handicapped (officially 3lb well in on ratings) and can go very close again. Jack Tudor may not have a great strike rate, but he rides a lot of horses who are not well-fancied, and he can steer Royal Mer to another win tomorrow.

15:30 3:30 Fontwell

Flamelco

Daily Racing

65 WIN

@8.00

Lose

-65

Like many of his opponents today, Flamelco is inconsistent. Though joint top weight, he may be reasonably well handicapped, and the 3lbs that Caolin Quinn takes off could be enough to swing this race his way.

15:00 3:00 Fontwell

Master Dancer

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@8.00

Lose

-50

Master Dancer had a two month break before running well at Huntingdon last month. He may come on from that and has good prospects in this race.

14:30 2:30 Fontwell

Executive Pool

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@26.00

Lose

-50

One win over hurdles, in April 2023, off 88. Poor runs in chases but reverts to the hurdles today off a mark of 85. It's a speculative bet, but may be worth a small wager at 25/1.

18 April 2024

15:15 3:15 Cheltenham

Lady Adare

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@6.00

Lose

-50

Lady Adare ran poorly lto, but previously had good form, including in a Grade 2 (which this is, also). She may return to her previous good form, and, if so, she may be able to give away the weight to her rivals.

06 April 2024

15:15 3:15 Kempton

Sweet Fantasy

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@8.00

Lose

-50

Circuit Breaker has been a massive gamble from 10/1 to around 3/1, while Sweet Fantasy has drifted from 7/2 to 7/1. This is an open race, but Sweet Fantasy appears to have significantly improved for the transfer to James Owen's yard. James Owen has a 23% strike rate in NH races and a 24% win rate on the flat. Aidan Keeley has done really well on Owen's horses. While the big drift is usually a bad sign, I will take a chance that he is well-handicapped due to his recent improvement over the jumps.

14:40 2:40 Kempton

Londoner

Daily Racing

40 EW

@26.00

Lose

-80

Moved from Aidan O'Brien and has been gelded. Trainer takes this horse 400 miles to Kempton Park and books Jim Crowley (top 5 strike rate at Kempton). At 25/1 or more, perhaps worth a speculative bet.

31 March 2024

17:04 5:04 Market Rasen

Mylesfromwicklow

Daily Racing

60 WIN

@3.00

Win

120

Moving from C3 to C1 was too much for this horse at Sandown, but he is dropping three classes today to C4, and so may resume his good form over fences and so he can go close today.

16:50 4:50 Plumpton

I See You Well

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@7.00

Lose

-50

I See You Well is probably on the downgrade, but many of his opponents have fairly big question marks against them. He has a good record at this course, so I will take a chance that he will run well today, and it may be good enough to secure victory.

14:09 2:09 Market Rasen

Bolsover Bill

Daily Racing

60 WIN

@4.50

Lose

-60

The form of his wins in January has been franked, and though he has gone up 14lb since then, he may remain quite well handicapped. The jockey has won 4 of her 8 races this season, so should give him a good chance today.

27 March 2024

20:30 8:30 Kempton

Beauen Arrows

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@11.00

Lose

-50

Zero wins from 18 runs to date, but he has run very well, especially the last two times over this course. On both occasions, he ran over 7f, weakening in the final furlong. I hope that the shorter distance of 6f will suit him tomorrow and he can finally break his duck.

19:00 7:00 Kempton

Mostabshir

Daily Racing

60 WIN

@5.00

Lose

-60

A decent prize of 13k for this handicap, and Mostabshir has good claims for the powerful Gosden stable with Jim Crowley aboard. He is a course winner and the Gosdens are already on a 33% strike rate this season. Crowley has previously won on the horse, at this course. The small concern is that he drops from 8f to 7f, but I am hoping that he will cope with this.

18:00 6:00 Kempton

Show Me A Hero

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@8.00

Lose

-50

Like several of these, he has shown promise but has no recent form. The fact that James Doyle has been booked may be significant; Mr. Doyle is the jockey with the best strike rate at the Kempton AW track. I'm not terribly keen on T E Whelan, who rides the favourite and while there are a couple of others apparently well fancied, Show Me a Hero may be the best value.

23 March 2024

17:40 5:00 Newbury

Supervisor

Daily Racing

60 WIN

@8.50

Lose

-60

Supervisor takes a significant leap in class from C5 to C3. There is a risk he cannot cope with this. On the other hand, he carries just 9-11 tomorrow; he gets a minimum of 8lbs from Fidux and piles of weight from the others. He may have been a touch unlucky last time out as Ned Fox dropped his whip, so I will risk a small bet at around 15/2.

17:15 4:25 Newbury

Rath Gaul Hill

Daily Racing

60 WINNOTETip made at odds of 8.50 on 22/03 at 17:240.25 deduction for Jupiter Du Gite@4.00 withdrawn at 08:11R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 7.50 x (1-0.25) = 6.63

@6.63

Win

337

I previously avoided Robbie Dunne (Jockey) as I was of the opinion he was pretty poor. I have to acknowledge a definite improvement in recent months, so I will give a tentative selection to Rath Gaul Hill, who has also shown improvement in recent months and is off bottom weight and, after a good second at Doncaster, could win this. He looked to be going well 1/2 mile from home at Doncaster, only to fade. He drops back to 2miles tomorrow and off an unchanged mark, he is expected to go close tomorrow.

15:15 3:15 Newbury

Drumlee Spud

Daily Racing

30 EW

@26.00

Lose

-60

In a wide-open contest of 17 runners, Drumlee Spud is the EW selection, following three good runs last autumn and a disappointing run at Carlisle. The disappointing run may have helped form a handicapping point of view, and with Beau Morgan taking off 5lbs and the Ben Pauling stable being in good form (18% this season), Drumlee Spud is a small selection at 25/1.

14:40 2:40 Newbury

Gunsight Ridge

Daily Racing

100 WIN

@6.50

Lose

-100

I'm uncertain that Heltenham can overcome a 6lb hike and prefer Gunsight Ridge, who, after falling on his seasonal debut, ran a cracker to finish second at Sandown and is just 2lb above his last winning mark. Sean Bowen continues in top form (22% this season), as does Olly Murphy (also 22% this season), and at 11/2 in a seven-horse race, he looks to be a good value selection.

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14:10 2:10 Newbury

Kartoon And Co

Daily Racing

200 WIN

@6.50

Lose

-200

Kartoon & Co was given too much to do last time out and is again selected to gain compensation for this. He has now run four promising runs and looks likely to score soon.

16 March 2024

13:35 1:35 Kempton

Soul Icon

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@5.00

Lose

-50

Soul Icon is certainly not an obvious selection; so far, his jumping over fences has been sketchy, and he was outclassed last time out and beaten 43l. However, he has a very good hurdler and back in a more suitable class today, could be good enough to win this, if his jumping holds out.

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