JackpotRod

I'll get you an odds on shots beaten, but also give you some long odds winners with hopefully some insightful reasoning to help you to decide whether to follow me in or not. Back all my own selections with my own cash.

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JackpotRod's Tips

29th March 2024
16:10 4:10 Newcastle

Base Note

Daily Racing

25 EW

Base Note I thought was worth a small play with the market giving up on him. He completely missed the break last time when finishing behind a few of these, but given the way he started he did well to finish where he did perhaps. Whilst it might not be within reach, a mark of 105 doesn’t have him out of this completely on his best efforts, and it will take that to win here. Only 4 starts ago he was ahead of Elegant Man giving away 4lbs, and he'll be up against the same horse who is currently 11/2 here, but he'll be in receipt of a 10lb swing. That's enough in itself for me to have a play at 50s with a genuine chance of a pace collapse here which can work out well for him given his most recent wins have come over further. He's drawn around all the pace angles which could also serve to help him away well this time given he has ridden forward in the past. 
16:40 4:40 Newcastle

Talis Evolvere

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

There looks a genuine lack of pace here, and whilst it can seemingly be hard to make all over a mile here, one horse in Talis Evolvere could be off the front end and has a very low weight to take through the race. 12th of 12 nudged up to this level last time, that was over 1m2f and he was caught 3 wide throughout in a race run at a canter that just didn't suit him at all. Form prior to that links him in with these, no less a 2nd to 10/1 Fantastic Fox with whom he gets a 10lb swing in the weights for a 1/2L defeat. I think a lot does hinge on the start, but overall I think his price is just too big if you're willing to ignore his last run. Taking 8st5lbs through the race I think he can hang tough if he gets forward under a claimer who is working to a solid 19/61 horses this season in the top 2 in 4yo AW races.

Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.

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