Football Manager Expert and Political Betting Specialist across Exchange and Spread Betting Sites
- Bets are coming in for Trump to be the next President and Bookmakers shorten his odds as a result 11% to 15%
- Joe Biden's betting odds probability has dropped from 25% to just 18% in one week
- Kamala Harris' chance continues to fall in the betting markets.
Trump is being backed as next POTUS
Despite media blackouts and hearing very little about the former president of the United States, Donald Trump is finding support in bookmakers betting markets for who is going to be the next president of the US.
Trump's probability, based on those betting odds has increased from 11% to 15% in just one week.
A 4% increase may not sound very much until we consider that Joe Biden's chance in the same betting market is 3.5% Beter at 18.5%, after dropping from 25% last week.
2024 Presidential Winner Betting Probability
| Candidate | Last Week | This Week | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 24% | 18% | Down 6% |
| Donald Trump | 11% | 15% | Up 4% |
| Kamala Harris | 15% | 12% | Down 3% |
| Ron DeSantis | 8% | 7% | Down 1% |
| Mike Pence | 4% | 4% | None |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 23/8/2021
A 4% increase in Trump's probability in the betting doesn't sound huge until you see he is just 3.5% probability points behind the favourite, Joe Biden, in the betting, and in the last 7 days, there has been a 9% Swing in Trump's favour.
Nigel Skinner - Political betting specialist - olbg.com
Betting Support Dropping for Biden
Whether intrinsically linked to what's happening on the ground or not, Support for Joe Biden in the betting for the Next US President is certainly on the wane.
On the 15th August his odds were at their lowest and probability the highest of retaining the position in 2024, since then, there has been a monumental absence of bets for Biden [which all seem to have come in for Trump] and his probability has taken a marked drop to just 18%
Whilst Trump's increase of 4% doesn't sound huge, when you consider he is just 3.5% behind Biden now in Probability terms according to bookmakers, we have a very interesting race on our hands.
Harris Continues to Drop
The odds on Kamala Harris becoming the next POTUS have been steadily dropping since mid-May and things have not stopped. She has lost a further 3% in probability terms and now is given a 12% chance of winning the position in the next election, as opposed to the lofty 21% she has just 3 months ago.
2024 Presidential Winner Betting Odds
| Candidate | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 9/2 | 18% |
| Donald Trump | 11/2 | 15% |
| Kamala Harris | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Ron DeSantis | 14/1 | 6% |
| Mike Pence | 22/1 | 3% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 23/8/2021
Formerly the second favorite to be the next President of the United States, she now sits in the third position in the betting behind Donald Trump.
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