Football Manager Expert and Political Betting Specialist across Exchange and Spread Betting Sites
- Raab's probability of being the next to leave the cabinet double from 4% to 8% with bookmakers
- President of COP26 Alok Sharma still betting sites favourite to go first with 30% likelihood
- 85% chance Raab will survive in post until at least another 2 weeks in bookies, 'remain in post' market
Odds Slashed to Lose Foreign Secretary Post
With calls for the resignation of Dominic Raab following what is being called a 'failure of judgment' by some, bookmakers have reacted by halving the odds from 25/1 to just 12/1 for him to be the next cabinet minister to leave their post.
The halving of the odds also doubles the probability from just 4% to 8%.
Next Cabinet Minister to Leave Betting Odds
| Cabinet Minister | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Alok Sharma | 3/1 | 25% |
| Gavin Williamson | 9/2 | 18.18% |
| Priti Patel | 9/1 | 14.29% |
| Michael Gove | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Lord Frost | 8/1 | 11.11% |
| Ben Wallace | 10/1 | 9.09% |
| Dominic Raab | 12/1 | 7.69% |
| Brandon Lewis | 12/1 | 7.69% |
| Rishi Sunak | 12/1 | 7.69% |
| Sajid David | 14/1 | 6.67% |
| Boris Johnson | 16/1 | 5.88% |
| Liz Truss | 25/1 | 3.85% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 19/8/2021
25/1 into 12/1 is a significant 100% increase in Dominic Raab's probability to be the next cabinet minister to leave their post betting, representing bookmakers confidence in the pressure he will be under to resign.
Nigel Skinner - Political betting specialist - olbg.com
Sharma Still Likely to be First
Alok Sharma the president of COP26 who left his post as Minister of State at the Cabinet Office, and Reading West Conservative MP since 2010 remains the favourite to move on or out at 3/1 with the bookmakers.
He is visiting many countries in his role with COPA26 and allegedly still uses a diesel-powered vehicle which leaves him wide open for criticism and favourite to vacate his post.
The 3/1 odds represents a 25% of Sharma being the next to leave in this market, followed by Education Secretary Gavin Williamson and Home Secretary Priti Patel
Dominic Raab may be only 7th in the list of favourites to leave a post in the political betting markets, but has made a significant move from one of the outsiders and just last weekend was considered less likely than Liz Truss to leave.
Will Raab Last The Month?
In a betting market as to whether Dominic Raab will last until September 1st, it would seem punters are less confident if a resignation does come, it will come quickly.
It is considered an 85% possibility he remains in office until at least next month, although the coming days could be telling and there could be significant movement should there be further developments in the story.
Whilst confidence grows that Raab will be pressured to step down, bookmakers would seem 85% confident that he will still be in office in his current role until at least September 1st
Nigel Skinner - Political betting specialist - olbg.com
Dominic Raab to Remain Foreign Secretary until 1st September
| Decision | Odds | Probability** |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1/7 | 87.7% |
| No | 5/1 | 16.67% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround of 4.16% - odds correct at 19/8/2021
No Comments
There are no comments here. Be the first to comment...
Keep Reading
BAFTA TV Awards Betting Odds: Happy Valley 1/4 to win Best Drama Series for THIRD TIME at next month's awards!
Happy Valley is the clear favourite in the betting market to win the Best Drama Series award at the BAFTA TV Awards next month.
Continue ReadingWhere will the 2030 World Cup Final be played? Morocco now 3/1 favourites to host World Cup Final with 115,000 seater stadium set to be built!
Morocco are the 3/1 favourites to host the FIFA World Cup Final in 2030 with the country one of three joint hosts alongside Spain and Portugal.
Continue ReadingWho will be a contestant on I'm A Celebrity 2024? Chunkz is latest market mover coming into 12/1 to head into the jungle later this year!
YouTuber Chunkz has moved into 12/1 to head Down Under into the I'm A Celeb jungle later this year with betting odds continuing to be offered!
Continue Reading