Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

[davidg3907]

Well, that was an entertaining day's football. All three away teams scored at least 3 goals and only one avoided defeat. However, it certainly led to vigorous movement in the market with opportunities for trading coming thick and fast.

Bets placed and matched (in no particular order).

Southampton 40 pts @ 1.05 25 pts @ 1.03 1.5 pts @ 1.02
Southampton 30 pts @ 1.04
Everton 15 pts @ 3.80 12.25 pts @ 3.50 2.75 pts @ 3.40
Everton 10 pts @ 4.10
Leicester 25 pts @ 1.71 20 pts @ 1.45
Nottm Forest 26 pts @ 2.94 4.5 pts @ 2.90 8.5 pts @ 2.88 25.5 pts @ 2.80 40.5 pts @ 2.74 20 pts @ 1.99
Nottm Forest 10 pts @ 2.86 20 pts @ 2.34

Attempts to back Leeds at around 1.54 became less likely as the evening wore on so I laid the other teams more to compensate.

Now to work out how I stand - and what action to take.

Two more matched, leaving Southampton, Leeds, and Everton as the only positive outcome for the moment.

Everton 15 pts @ 4.10
Leeds 20 pts @ 1.44

[davidg3907]

Yesterday. there were plenty of goals that could potentially change the outcome of the match, both Leeds and Forest took the lead, went behind, and finally salvaged a point. That can often lead to violent swings in the market and yesterday was no exception.

Getting involved at the right time is, of course, more difficult. There is also no guarantee that fortunes will change. With Everton playing today, and Leicester tomorrow, there is still scope for further action during this round of matches.

Bets matched yesterday and this morning so far.

Nottm Forest 10 pts @ 2.60 as they went behind.
Nottm Forest 20 pts @ 3.30 and 20 pts @ 3.40 subsequently with a view to trading some later.
Leeds 13.5 pts @ 1.46 when Newcastle equalised. I had tried to back them while ahead but a combination of pitching my request too high, and then Newcastle scoring put an end to those hopes.
Everton 15 pts @ 4.10 and 10 pts @ 4.20 for trading purposes. They didn't shorten quite sufficiently for me to take advantage. I will, therefore, need them to lose against Man City.

[davidg3907]

There was plenty of action before and during tonight's match but very little after it.

Bets placed and their status.
Leicester 25 pts @ 1.18 & 25 pts @ 1.35 - matched
Leicester 50 pts @ 1.25 -
Leeds 20 pts @ 1.60 - matched
Nottm Forest 30 pts @ 3.50 - matched
Nottm Forest 10 pts @ 3.80 - matched
Nottm Forest 10 pts @ 4.20 -
Everton 5 pts @ 4.90 - matched
Everton 5 pts @ 4.00 - matched @ nett 4.02

In part as insurance, in part as a trade, and in part because it seemed good value, I have backed the RT of Southampton Leeds Everton 10 pts @ 15

[davidg3907]

With staggered kick-offs for the teams that matter, there will be scope for trading etc.

Apart from the Leicester and Forest back bets from above that remain open (the balance of the Leeds bet has recently been matched), the following have been placed today.

Leeds 40 pts @ 1.54 - matched
Everton 30 pts @ 2.80 and 20 pts @ 2.50 - matched
Nottm Forest 20 pts @ 3.25 - 1.3 pts matched, balance cancelled
Everton 10 pts @ 6.60 - placed in case they took/take the lead.

Leicester bet is now matched.
Nottm Forest back odds amended to 6.00 as I don't wish to back them at under the odds if they score - now matched.
Nottm Forest I laid 1.3 pts @ 22, 0.5 pts @ 44, and 0.5 pts @ 48
Everton - bet cancelled.

[davidg3907]

There are now just 3 possible outcomes.

Southampton Leeds Leicester -71 pts
Southampton Leeds Everton +206 pts
Southampton Leicester Everton -307 pts

Everton have 33 pts with one game to play
Leeds on 31 pts and Leicester on 30 pts have two games to play.

Leeds play at West Ham tomorrow before Leicester complete the week's fixtures at Newcastle on Monday.
A win for Leeds tomorrow would mean relegation for Leicester if they lose at Newcastle.
All other combinations see the battle go down to the wire.

Some trading may be possible during both games, but steps will be taken before then to even out the potential losses.

[davidg3907]

To cover results I do not want to see, I have had a double on Leeds and Newcastle 10 pts @ 3.68.

I have requested
Leeds 100 pts @ 1.41 - matched
Everton 20 pts @ 2.46 - matched
Everton 20 pts @ 2.40 - matched

I shall now monitor the matches in real time.

[davidg3907]

To cover results I do not want to see, I have had a double on Leeds and Newcastle 10 pts @ 3.68.

I have requested
Leeds 100 pts @ 1.41 - matched
Everton 20 pts @ 2.46 - matched
Everton 20 pts @ 2.40 - matched

I shall now monitor the matches in real time.

In the rush, I had overlooked the fact that a 30 pt back bet of Nottm Forest that had been cancelled was still showing on my records. That makes the figures 30 pts 'less bad' but leaves some work left to do.

Currently LEE/LEI -8 LEE/EVE +108 LEI/EVE -260

West Ham have a quick turn around after their EUFA Conference semi-final win; will they be tired?
As they face Leeds at home today before travelling to Leicester next Sunday, they can have a massive impact on the outcome of the season's relegation issue.

In February, Leicester took 6 points from their first two matches; since then, they have managed just 6 points from 14 matches. Now they could do with 6 points from the two matches remaining.

[davidg3907]

Under normal circumstances, Leeds taking the lead and then losing would have been great for trading. However, the job today was as much to do with equalising the position in case of a Leeds victory.

Bets matched today.

Leicester 11 pts @ 1.14

Everton 10 pts @ 3.20 & 5 pts @ 3.95

Leeds 25 pts @ 1.66 15 pts @ 1.26 15 pts @ 1.16 5 pts @ 1.23

The overall position is now more manageable with the worst scenario not as bad as it was.

LEE/LEI -53 LEE/EVE +102 LEI/EVE -182

The saga continues at Newcastle tomorrow evening.

[davidg3907]

The three possibilities at Newcastle.

Leicester will not be expected to get anything out of this match, so if falling behind 9as they usually do), then preserving their goal difference advantage should be the number one priority. Defeat would not significantly alter their relegation odds Any bet could be traded for a minimal disadvantage. Anything else would have a massive impact, so I am prepared to lay them for a small sum, knowing the risks are limited.

1. A win for Leicester would mean that Leeds would have to beat Tottenham on the final day, and hope Leicester or Everton loses, or win by 3 goals if Everton draw.
2. A draw for Leicester would mean that Leeds needed to better their result on the last day as GD would be greatly in Leicester's favour.
3. Defeat for Leicester would mean the Foxes would be relegated if they failed to beat West Ham, irrespective of other results.
4.Should Leicester lose at Newcastle and beat West Ham, Leeds would survive if they beat Tottenham, and Everton lost to Bournemouth. If Leeds beat Tottenham by 3 goals, they would survive even if Everton got a point.

Caveat. These scenarios would change should Leicester suffer a very heavy defeat at Newcastle.

[davidg3907]

Ahead of tomorrow's game, I have laid Leicester 50 pts @ 1.17 and backed Leeds 50 pts @ 1.12.

[davidg3907]

I laid.

Everton 15 pts @ 4.20
Leicester 30 pts @ 1.22 having tried 1.12 and all points north since before kick-off.

Newcastle realised that holding Leicester to a draw would be sufficient to guarantee them a top 4 finish (unless a miracle in GD they would be safe if losing).

Roll on Sunday.

[davidg3907]

A bit of trading was possible earlier in the week while Leeds were available at a generous 1.06 or slightly less generous 1.05.
Backing the combination of results (more than one) that would see them survive could be backed, and I managed up to 76.04 inc bonus.
This was never to make money but to reduce the liability should the very unlikely happen. It just required topping up the account in order to do so.

When Leicester took the lead against West Ham, I backed them for a small stake rather than "green up" but that turned out to be a slight miscalculation.

Anyway, when the dust settled LEE/LEI -42 LEE/EVE +145 LEI/EVE -194

Disappointing as it may be, in view of Leicester's collapse from mid-February, it would have been a lot worse had I not taken steps to avoid a catastrophe.