Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

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Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:28 am

The time has come said the Walrus.

Yes, the time has come to look at some early odds on next season's relegation battle. Fixtures were announced recently and I shall soon be browsing them to see if any teams have particularly easy or difficult beginnings to the season.

A mid-season buy-out of Newcastle really shook things up last season. Fluctuating fortunes at Brentford and Burnley, along with free fall for Leeds and Everton towards the end of the season meant some rapid action had to be taken to keep on top of things. However, as they say, all is well that ends well.

Checking records for previous seasons, I have (as accurately as possible) come up with profit/loss figures for each season. The only thing not taken into consideration is Betfair commission. That is impossible to do retrospectively as it depends on the ratio of winning/losing bets with bookmakers to Betfair. I would expect the figure to be the equivalent of around 1 pt per season.

Season +/- pts
0910 +67
1011 +106
1112 +23
1213 +92
1314 -14
1415 +117
1516 +92
1617 +48
1718 -235
1819 +160
1920 +50
2021 +101
2022 +65


Any questions or comments on this or previous relegation threads?
Please Post Here>>>> viewtopic.php?f=59&t=70325
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

Postby davidg3907 » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:35 am

I have posted some requests for three lay bets and one back bet but there is little action so far with fairly wide spreads (although not as bad as some years) making it difficult to get matched.
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

Postby davidg3907 » Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:43 pm

Nothing much happened for a while then most bets got matched with a few waiting a bit longer.

Initially, I had backed Palace in view of their difficult start to the season. However, the transfer market has done them little harm so far, and this has caused me to change ship. I also backed Leeds earlier with a view to trading. I have traded part of that.

Back bets matched.
Crystal Palace 6 pts @ 7.60
Crystal Palace 5 pts @ 8.60
Leeds 20 pts @ 3.60

Lay bets matched.

Crystal Palace 6 pts @ 7.80
Crystal Palace 8 pts @ 8.40
Leeds 10 pts @ 3.40
Brentford 15 pts @ 3.60
Everton 2 pts @ 6.00
Everton 10.5 pts @ 6.20
Wolves 12.5 pts @ 6.20
Brighton 6 pts @ 9.20
Leicester 5 pts @ 18.00
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Jul 29, 2022 7:23 pm

I have since laid 30 pts Fulham @ 2.46.

I have backed Southampton 20 pts @ 4.20 (seemingly difficult start).
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Aug 05, 2022 10:15 am

Just a few more bits.

Wolves drifted to around 7.00/7.20. Expecting the drift to continue in view of Bournemouth, Everton, and Leicester shortening, I laid them for 1 pt @ 7.20. The odds have returned to where they were earlier.

Fulham is a strange one. I took 5 pts @ 2.54 as a trade against the earlier lay but then odds rocketed but had a large margin between back and lay. That means tread carefully but I still laid 15 pts @ 2.66 while the range was 2.64 / 2.90. I traded 5 pts at 2.80 and have managed 2.5 pts at 2.76 but the rest is on hold.
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

Postby davidg3907 » Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:14 pm

I backed Fulham for 10 pts @ 2.60 and laid 12.5 pts @ 2.48.

For reference, that makes an overall position of 35 pts @ 2.4326.
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

Postby davidg3907 » Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:49 am

Likely to be the last bets matched before today's kick-offs.

Brentford 5 pts @ 5.00
Fulham 2.5 pts @ 2.80
West Ham (as a cheap trade) 3 pts @ 29.71

Still open.
Leeds 5 pts @ 3.60
Southampton 6 pts @ 3.60
Crystal Palace 7 pts @ 7.00
Leicester 5 pts @ 10.00
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

Postby davidg3907 » Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:13 pm

Full update after Sunday games in case I've missed anything.

From the previous post.
Leeds odds amended to 4.20 remains open.
Southampton and Leicester bets matched.
Crystal Palace 2 pts matched @ 7.00 with balance amended to 7.40 and remains open

An attempt to back Brentford @ 6.20 failed and has been cancelled but 3 pts were matched @ 5.40.
Wolves laid for 6.50 pts @ 4.40
Fulham backed for 5 pts @ 3.95 and laid for 10 pts @ 3.20. Topsy-turvy games can provide good trading opportunities - or bad ones! :D
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Aug 07, 2022 7:00 pm

Crystal Palace matched @ 7.40 and Leeds cancelled.

There are currently no open bets. Full update to follow.
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Aug 08, 2022 9:21 am

The promised update. Where trading has taken place, only the overall figure is displayed.

Teams I have backed.
Leeds 10 pts @ 3.80 (3.80 / 3.90)
West Ham 3 pts @ 29.71 (27.00 / 28.00) - for trading.
Southampton 14 pts @ 4.46 (3.25 / 3.30)


Teams I have laid.

Everton 12.5 pts @ 6.17 (4.00 / 4.20)
Brentford 7 pts @ 1.83 (4.80 / 4.90)
Wolves 20 pts @ 5.67 (5.00 / 5.10)
Crystal Palace 10 pts @ 7.64 (7.40 / 7.60)
Leicester 10 pts @ 14.00 (9.40 / 11.00)
Brighton 6 pts @ 9.26 (17.50 / 18.00)
Fulham 30 pts @ 2.30 (3.15 / 3.20)

At this point, the only real concern is Everton. They were only made to look OK by a Chelsea team that took the lead via a penalty deep into first-half stoppage time, and then rarely seemed to have the intent or ability to score again. Everton eventually deserved something out of the game.
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Aug 08, 2022 7:42 pm

I laid West Ham for 6 pts @ 27, converting them to an overall lay of 3 pts @ 24.30 which is obviously better value than simply laying them at around 30. They are unlikely to get involved in the relegation battle so this was more of an example than anything substantive.
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Re: Premier League Relegation Diary 2022/2023

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Aug 14, 2022 8:55 am

As expected, Southampton are making heavy weather of their start. That had looked worse before recovering to get a point against Leeds. Next up are not just two difficult matches on paper, but have become early 6-pointers - away to Leicester and home to Man Utd.

I thought that their odds were unlikely to drop much further in the near future and tried to trade some of the bet @ under 3.00. That failed (due in part to the wide spread between back and lay) but did manage to lay 12 pts @ 3.05, leaving a nett back position of 2 pts @ 12.75.

I aim to follow some teams more closely in a mini-series. Everton who are doing worse than expected, Leeds who are doing better than expected (original plan Brentford so that option is still open), and Southampton who could go either way.
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