Formula One - Canadian Grand Prix Weekend

The Snail
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Formula One - Canadian Grand Prix Weekend

Postby The Snail » Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:37 am

After the relative non-event of Monaco we move across the Pond to Canada.

A race I hold close to my heart as, having never yet managed to make it to a Formula One race weekend, I did manage to convince my wife to cycle the Montreal track when we were travelling across Canada! The picture of me pretending to change my bike tyre in the pits never fails to put a smile on my face!

Montreal is a track that suits the Mercedes much better and Hamilton is coming here off the back of three wins on the bounce around the Canadian track. Are we set for a return to Mercedes dominance or can Ferrari or Red Bull challenge?

Whatever happens Ricciardo will be up against it and on a damage limitation exercise one suspects as he faces grid penalties for changing parts of his faulty power unit from Monaco.

Personally I am expecting a Mercedes lock-out on the front row. Bottas has some nice form here and I am eternally hopeful that he puts in a good run as he is a driver I like. Backing both Hamilton and Bottas (@ current prices shown on OLBG with bet365) to win pays a lsp of 0.3 for Hamilton and +5 for Bottas, which is similar to the only winning tip I put up last race for the Red Bull fastest lap bet across both drivers.

Once we get a look at relative performances in practice today the picture will become a little more interesting....if not necessarily clearer!

Would love to hear the thoughts of others....:)

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Re: Formula One - Canadian Grand Prix Weekend

Postby davidjwest » Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:14 pm

On the face of it this is a shoe-in for Mercedes and Hamilton especially as he has won there 6 times and the Mercedes power advantage will be useful.

This is written before practise or qualifying, so if I end up looking stupid that is why!

Last season we never really saw how close Ferrari were as Vettel damaged his car early on and so it left Hamilton out front without a lot to do. I suspect in reality Ferrari were pretty close on race pace, but as usual their qualifying performance wasn't close enough to Mercedes, due to them exploiting the "oil burning" loophole. This loophole has now gone and so qualifying should be closer, as we've seen already this season.

Intriguingly Mercedes are now not bringing their engine upgrade to this race and by the sounds of it intend running the same engines they used at Monaco, in other words quite well used engines.

Ferrari haven't said yet if they will run new or upgraded engines, the rules this season allow 3 engines per car per season without penalty and Canada is the first track that you can use a new engine at without penalty, ie your second engine of the year.

If Ferrari do bring an upgrade, or even just use a new engine, this could give them the advantage they need in qualifying and the race.

Red Bull will probably be too far down on power to make a three-way fight of it, in fact it will be interesting to see if either Force India can challenge them to be best of the rest. If it's wet however, be interesting to see if Max Verstappen can do anything (other than crash) and he is very good value.

My gut feeling is Hamilton to win, Vettel second with Bottas third, but let's see what practise and qualifying bring.

Other bets that look good, Raikkonen for fastest lap (10/1) , Leclerc in the points (2/1), he's stated the track will suit his car and has been in the points twice this year and improving race by race.

Will post again after we see some times etc.

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Re: Formula One - Canadian Grand Prix Weekend

Postby davidjwest » Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:34 pm

Can you use the bet builder thing with bet365 on F1? Some interesting permutations I think, how do you use it?

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Re: Formula One - Canadian Grand Prix Weekend

Postby The Snail » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:02 am

I am not sure about that. You certainly cant do accas/perms on here in the tipping comps. But these days with #priceitup that most bookies do im sure someone will offer you your own select acca. I'm not sure if BetVictor do much F1 betting but they are usually a good shout as well.

I like the look of Leclerc too, that's a good shout and could turn out to be a generous price come race day.

we will await the first sight of the cars to get a feel for what may be! It was nice last time out that the pace shown by Sirotkin carried through to to qualifying and raceday, I think you can usually be a little more confident in genuine speed further down the grid, whereas the big three teams always seem to be playing around to a greater or lesser extent. Just a shame Sirotkin got stymied from the off with a stop go pen at the worst possible track, otherwise the 11/2 offered on him would have been the F1 bet of the season!!!!

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Re: Formula One - Canadian Grand Prix Weekend

Postby davidjwest » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:56 am

Ricciardo has escaped his grid penalty - Sky have him at 15/1 for the win and Verstappen at 10/1 which is odd.

Hamilton very down on his chances, sandbagging?

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Re: Formula One - Canadian Grand Prix Weekend

Postby davidjwest » Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:51 am

All weather forecasts have 0% chance of rain all weekend......

Straight fight between Ferrari and Mercedes I think.

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Re: Formula One - Canadian Grand Prix Weekend

Postby davidjwest » Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:01 pm

I realise you can't read too much into FP1 but on that evidence Red Bull could be contenders, quickest in sector 1 and 2 and Ferrari look to be struggling a bit.

FP2 starting soon, let's see......

Anyone seen any long runs, what was pace like?

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Re: Formula One - Canadian Grand Prix Weekend

Postby davidjwest » Sat Jun 09, 2018 2:16 pm

The key now is if Mercedes can get the softer tyre working, if they can then I can't see anyone challenging, Bottas e/w for the win would be good value in that case.

If they can't we might have a real fight on our hands, both Mercs on row 3 would make for an interesting race!

FP3 coming up.

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Re: Formula One - Canadian Grand Prix Weekend

Postby davidjwest » Sat Jun 09, 2018 2:38 pm

Ocon's long stint pace from FP2 looks surprisingly good.

Leclerc also pretty strong and did one of the longest runs of anyone.

Vettel didn't do a long stint.

Race pace around the 1m 15-16s at the start by the looks of it.

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Re: Formula One - Canadian Grand Prix Weekend

Postby davidjwest » Sat Jun 09, 2018 4:04 pm

Game on for qualifying, Mercedes cannot get much more out of the Hypersofts so you could see any driver from the top 3 teams on pole, a tenth covers the top 4.

Verstappen for the win?

Hamilton's rear tyres (Hypersoft) were pretty badly damaged after his stint on them so that's got to be a worry for Mercedes. I suspect they can turn the engine up for qualifying more than Red Bull and possibly Ferrari, but still looks interesting.

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Re: Formula One - Canadian Grand Prix Weekend

Postby davidjwest » Sat Jun 09, 2018 10:46 pm

Note to self, don't tip before qualifying!

You can only make one tip per market it seems, which is a bit harsh for points finishers, I wanted to tip Grosjean at 5/1 but no dice, I think he could get top 10 in the Haas, it seemed quite handy.

Anyway, tough to call for the race, Verstappen is going to be very racey at the start, hopefully he can avoid any incidents, I think he may actually have the best overall race package, very tempting as an e/w shot at 7/1

Vettel obviously has a good chance too but I wouldn't rule out either Mercedes either, going to be interesting. I wonder if Hamilton has gone for more of a race setup, ie a touch more downforce?

Speed trap data would be good but cannot find any.

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Re: Formula One - Canadian Grand Prix Weekend

Postby davidjwest » Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:57 pm

Considering the grid that was dull.

Need to see what Mercedes new engine is like, if it can't compete with Ferrari this is Vettel's season.

I think I made a profit with my tips but the ones I made before practise were pretty useless, need to remember that!

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