Grand National Trends/Stats

[miinnehoma 2]

After yesterday's scratching, my above 22 list is reduced to 18 -

04 Galvin 11st 11lb (166)
05 Noble Yeats 11st 11lb (166)
08 Fury Road 11st 6lb (161)
11 Delta Work 11st 4lb (159)
17 Coko Beach 11st (155)
18 Gaillard Du Mesnil 11st (155)
28 The Shunter 10st 11lb (152)
29 Escaria Ten 10st 10lb (151)
32 The Big Breakaway 10st 10lb (151)
40 Vanillier 10st 6lb (147)
42 Ain't That A Shame 10st 5lb (146)
48 Cloudy Glen 10st 4lb (145)
50 Mister Coffey 10st 4lb (145)
51 Mr Incredible 10st 4lb (145)
54 Hill Sixteen 10st 2lb (143)
57 Recite A Prayer 10st 1lb (142)
59 Dunboyne 10st (141)
60 Francky Du Berlais 10st (141)

This time It might be safer to start with current form and to expand the 2 top 2 places to include 1st & 3rd and 2nd & 3rd. (DPI best was a 2nd & 3rd).
Hopefully we don't have a Auroras Encore hiding.

So that would leave us with 12 to play with.

02 Noble Yeats 11st 11lb (166) --- (5)
03 Galvin 11st 11lb (166) --- (2)
06 Fury Road 11st 6lb (161) --- (1)
09 Delta Work 11st 4lb (159) --- (12)
15 Gaillard Du Mesnil 11st (155) --- (5)
21 The Big Breakaway 10st 10lb (151) --- (6)
27 Vanillier 10st 6lb (147) --- (4)
29 Ain't That A Shame 10st 5lb (146) --- (4)
32 Mr Incredible 10st 4lb (145) --- (5)
34 Mister Coffey 10st 4lb (145) --- (2)
39 Recite A Prayer 10st 1lb (142) --- (0)
42 Dunboyne 10st (141) --- (-2) in

Number on far right is the RPR-GNOR.
Number on the far left is their current position on GN list.

*******************************************************
If we use the increasing Triads observation on the above 18 list.

It would leave us with just 9 -

02 Noble Yeats 11st 11lb (166) --- (5)
06 Fury Road 11st 6lb (161) --- (1)
09 Delta Work 11st 4lb (159) --- (12)
15 Gaillard Du Mesnil 11st (155) --- (5)
18 The Shunter 10st 11lb (152) --- (3)
21 The Big Breakaway 10st 10lb (151) --- (6)
27 Vanillier 10st 6lb (147) --- (4)
35 Cloudy Glen 10st 4lb (145) --- (9)
37 Hill Sixteen 10st 2lb (143) --- (7)

***********************************
Using both observations on the above 18 would leave us with just 6 -

02 Noble Yeats 11st 11lb (166) --- (5)
06 Fury Road 11st 6lb (161) --- (1)
09 Delta Work 11st 4lb (159) --- (12)
15 Gaillard Du Mesnil 11st (155) --- (5)
21 The Big Breakaway 10st 10lb (151) --- (6)
27 Vanillier 10st 6lb (147) --- (4)

**************************************

Last year's winner Noble busted most of our normal stats that we built up over the yrs.
He also stretched our CMP stamina from 16 to 17, the git.
But he did have WR, increasing Triads & 2 top 2 places.
So this yr we might be in with a chance or maybe not.

[miinnehoma 2]

One should always check one's work.
My above list of 18 should have been 22.
Based only on Wild Risk & Stamina 12-17, then these 4 should have been on the list.
(I think their high speed/Index was on my mind).

I missed these 4 -

11 Lifetime Ambition
DP = 1-1-6-2-0 (10) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.10
Conduit Mare Profile = 8-3-3-7-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.85 Triads = 14-13-18
Wild Risk (2(1 on sire side, 1 on dam side))
14 Longhouse Poet
DP = 3-0-11-6-0 (20) DI = 0.74 CD = 0.00
Conduit Mare Profile = 6-6-2-11-4 Speed = 12 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.95 Triads = 14-19-17
Wild Risk (2(1 on sire side, 1 on dam side))
30 Corach Rambler
DP = 3-1-5-1-0 (10) DI = 1.86 CD = 0.60
Conduit Mare Profile = 3-8-4-8-4 Speed = 11 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.90 Triads = 15-20-16
Wild Risk (3 on sire side)
36 Battleoverdoyen
DP = 5-0-10-5-0 (20) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.25
Conduit Mare Profile = 5-7-5-8-5 Speed = 12 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.96 Triads = 17-20-18
Wild Risk (2 on dam side)
********************************

The new 22 list -
Based on WR and Stamina 12 - 17.
(Numbers on left from weights day).

04 Galvin 11st 11lb (166)
05 Noble Yeats 11st 11lb (166)
08 Fury Road 11st 6lb (161)
11 Delta Work 11st 4lb (159)
14 Lifetime Ambition 11st 3lb (158)
17 Coko Beach 11st (155)
18 Gaillard Du Mesnil 11st (155)
19 Longhouse Poet 11st (155)
28 The Shunter 10st 11lb (152)
29 Escaria Ten 10st 10lb (151)
32 The Big Breakaway 10st 10lb (151)
40 Vanillier 10st 6lb (147)
42 Ain't That A Shame 10st 5lb (146)
43 Corach Rambler 10st 5lb (146)
47 Battleoverdoyen 10st 4lb (145)
48 Cloudy Glen 10st 4lb (145)
50 Mister Coffey 10st 4lb (145)
51 Mr Incredible 10st 4lb (145)
54 Hill Sixteen 10st 2lb (143)
57 Recite A Prayer 10st 1lb (142)
59 Dunboyne 10st (141)
60 Francky Du Berlais 10st (141)
*********************************

Using the 2 top 2 places to include 1st & 3rd and 2nd & 3rd. (DPI best was a 2nd & 3rd).

Leaves us with 14 -
(2 extra -LA&LP)

02 Noble Yeats 11st 11lb (166) --- (5)
03 Galvin 11st 11lb (166) --- (2)
06 Fury Road 11st 6lb (161) --- (1)
09 Delta Work 11st 4lb (159) --- (12)
11 Lifetime Ambition 11st 3lb (158) --- (-5)
14 Longhouse Poet 11st (155) --- (-1)
15 Gaillard Du Mesnil 11st (155) --- (5)
21 The Big Breakaway 10st 10lb (151) --- (6)
27 Vanillier 10st 6lb (147) --- (4)
29 Ain't That A Shame 10st 5lb (146) --- (4)
32 Mr Incredible 10st 4lb (145) --- (5)
34 Mister Coffey 10st 4lb (145) --- (2)
39 Recite A Prayer 10st 1lb (142) --- (0)
42 Dunboyne 10st (141) --- (-2) in

Number on far right is the RPR-GNOR.
Number on the far left is their current position on GN list.

*******************************************************
If we use the increasing Triads observation on the new 22 list.

It would leave us with just 9 -
(No extra).

02 Noble Yeats 11st 11lb (166) --- (5)
06 Fury Road 11st 6lb (161) --- (1)
09 Delta Work 11st 4lb (159) --- (12)
15 Gaillard Du Mesnil 11st (155) --- (5)
18 The Shunter 10st 11lb (152) --- (3)
21 The Big Breakaway 10st 10lb (151) --- (6)
27 Vanillier 10st 6lb (147) --- (4)
35 Cloudy Glen 10st 4lb (145) --- (9)
37 Hill Sixteen 10st 2lb (143) --- (7)

***********************************
Using both observations on the new 22 list would leave us with just 6 -
(No extra).

02 Noble Yeats 11st 11lb (166) --- (5)
06 Fury Road 11st 6lb (161) --- (1)
09 Delta Work 11st 4lb (159) --- (12)
15 Gaillard Du Mesnil 11st (155) --- (5)
21 The Big Breakaway 10st 10lb (151) --- (6)
27 Vanillier 10st 6lb (147) --- (4)

************************************

[miinnehoma 2]

02 Noble Yeats

DP = 3-1-8-4-0 (16) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.19
Conduit Mare Profile = 4-5-4-9-8 Speed = 9 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.59 Triads = 13-18-21
Wild Risk (1 on sire's side)

37 Hill Sixteen

DP = 2-0-9-5-2 (18) DI = 0.57 CD = -0.28
Conduit Mare Profile = 5-3-5-10-7 Speed = 8 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.62 Triads = 13-18-22
Wild Risk (1 on sire side)

Noble Yeats V Hill Sixteen

Noble Yeats - Speed = 9 Stamina = 17. Index = 0.59 Triads = 13-18-21
Hill Sixteen --- Speed = 8 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.62 Triads = 13-18-22

Noble Yeats Mum - Speed = 10 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.62 Triads = 15-16-19
Hill Sixteen's Mum --- Speed = 6 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.59 Triads = 12-14-21

Noble Yeats Dad -- Speed = 10 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.61 Triads = 13-20-21
Hill Sixteen's Dad - Speed = 10 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.59 Triads = 13-19-21


Hill Sixteen does tick many, many boxes & on a nice low weight of 10.02.
Plus 2nd & 7th in the Becher etc.
And Ryan Mania 10 yrs on from Auroras Encore, a good omen.
It's just a pity his last run was so poor - 10th of 10.
Which leaves his preps looking - 370.
At least he has a top 3 place in one of his last 3 runs, which use to be a major stat.
But no winner in 50+ yrs has ever won with a zero in his last prep.
What's that you say - no 7 yr old had won in 82 yrs.

[miinnehoma 2]

Before Cheltenham I looked at the first 65 with the following 5 observations from the last 9 winners and ended up with a baker's dozen, so will now look at the current 45 down to Back on the Lash with -

1 - Wild Risk.
2 - Speed 2 - 11.
3 - Stamina 12 - 17.
4 - Triads increasing left to right.
5 - DI of 1.00 & under.

Leaves us with 9 -

02 Noble Yeats 11st 11lb (166)
06 Fury Road 11st 6lb (161)
09 Delta Work 11st 4lb (159)
15 Gaillard Du Mesnil 11st (155)
18 The Shunter 10st 11lb (152)
21 The Big Breakaway 10st 10lb (151)
27 Vanillier 10st 6lb (147)
35 Cloudy Glen 10st 4lb (145)
37 Hill Sixteen 10st 2lb (143)

[miinnehoma 2]

1 - CMP speed 2 - 11 & stamina 12 - 16
2 - Wild Risk on Mum's side
3 - 2 top 2 places in preps.

After Minella Times had won I posted if we had used these 3 observations we would have been left with just 2 horse's - Cloth Cap & the winner - Minella Times.

So for the craic if we ignore last year's winner - Noble and stick with the old CMP as above we would be left this year with just 3 rascals from the final 40 runner's.

Delta Work
Gaillard Du Mesnil
Dunboyne

Winner alright or winner disappeared again.

[miinnehoma 2]

For future reference -

Corach Rambler -

DP = 3-1-5-1-0 (10) DI = 1.86 CD = 0.60
Conduit Mare Profile = 3-8-4-8-4 Speed = 11 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.90 Triads = 15-20-16
Wild Risk (3 on sire side)

Corach Rambler -- 541 - 9yrs, 10.05, OR146, 32 days.
Chases 9 - 4/0/1
Life Run's 12 - 6/0/1
RPR159 - GNOR146 = 13
9+ stat = 13 (last chase).
Chase best TS140
Hurdle best RPR122
Won @ 26f.
4th @ 29f.
Won 70k hcap chase 1/23 @ 25f.
Won 70 k hcap chase 1/24 @ 25f.
1st/7 @ Aintree mildmay 25f chase.

So the last 2 winners - Noble & Corach - had only 11 & 12 Life Runs (normally 17+).
Blimey, that's not going to help us narrow down the field.

[miinnehoma 2]

Fair Dinkum to the Telegraph - they posted this 2 weeks ago.
They gave 5 stars to these 6 from the top 40.

Noble Yeats
Delta Work
Gaillard Du Mesnil
Vanillier
Ain't That A Shame
Corach Rambler

[miinnehoma 2]

2008 Comply or Die
DP = 2-0-6-4-0 (12) DI = 0.71 CD = 0.00
CMP = 5-5-5-8-4 Speed = 10 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.95 Triads = 15-18-17

2023 Corach Rambler -
DP = 3-1-5-1-0 (10) DI = 1.86 CD = 0.60
CMP = 3-8-4-8-4 Speed = 11 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.90 Triads = 15-20-16

[miinnehoma 2]

On the above 6 list from 22 runner's using both observations we got close with 2nd, 3rd & 4th but not the winner, not the winner, no cigar.

The winner was on the above 22 list but was one of the first to be knocked out when narrowing down the field. So there you go, another one who got away, I suppose an obvious one that was favourite.
I think next year I'll wait for the - Telegraph - to give me 6.

[miinnehoma 2]

Corach Rambler with 18 yes.

Yes - 25/25 Age to 8 – 12.
Yes - 25/25 Career chase Runs at least 9.
Yes - 25/25 Season Runs at least 2.
Yes - 25/25 Top 3 place in a Hcap chase.
Yes - 25/25 Top 4 chase place in GN season.
Yes - 25/25 Last Race finished in top 9 or PU/F.
Yes - 25/25 RPR > GNOR of 4+.
Yes - 25/25 CMP speed 2-11
Yes - 25/25 CMP stamina 12-16

Yes - 24/25 4 or more chase/hurdle career wins (MT).
Yes - 24/25 6 or more career runs @ 24f+ (MT).
Yes - 24/25 Top 3 @ 28f+ or C1/C2 chase win @ 24f+ (MT).
Yes - 24/25 Days Since Last Run, Under 62 days (OFA).
Yes - 24/25 Top 3 place in at least one of the last 3 races (AE).
Yes - 24/25 Top 3 place in a chase/hurdle in GN season (AE).
Yes - 24/25 Chase win in last 10 chases (RTW).

Yes - 23/25 Chase wins at least 3 (RTW and MT).
Yes - 23/25 Top 2 chase place in a Spring Festival or Top 3 @ 28f+ (MC and MT).

Minella Times had 13 yes & 5 no.

Noble Yeats had 8 yes & 10 no. ( have left him out of above - one off ).

Corach Rambler has 18 yes - a cracker from the old school.

Must start reading my own stuff.

[miinnehoma 2]

For future reference -
I posted this on April 2nd.
Lets ignore last yrs winner re age & stamina 17 and by using the following 4 observations we would be left with 12 runners from the top 42.

1 - Age 8+
2 - Stamina 12 - 16
3 - Speed 2 - 11
4 - Wild Risk
**********************
If I had gone just one step further by using the RPR - GNOR (which I like ) on the 12 runners, we would have been left with just 5 rascals.

Delta Work
Vanillier
Ain't That A Shame
Corach Rambler
Cloudy Glen

This is probably the only way I wouldn't have already had cut the winner from my lists.
Hindsight a cracker says you but I must remember to try this next year.
Though usually when you spot something and try it again it bite's you in the proverbial.