Headed Goal Minutes

bobslay13
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Headed Goal Minutes

Postby bobslay13 » Fri Jan 02, 2015 1:26 am

Trying a little experiment after buying headed goal minutes for 4 teams over the last 4 days 3 of them have scored and I've had a brilliant ROI return (more info in the Premier League aggregate markets if interested). After watching the highlights on MOTD I was unlucky that Burnley didn't get 3 headed goals today after Barnes and Mee both hit the woodwork with headers.

Anyway. I'm not going to get too ahead of myself but I think I've found a nice little bet that gives an interest over the whole course of the game with little outlay. Most teams headed goal minutes are around 10 mins so it's a small risk that can have big rewards.

Here's my general framework for selections;

- teams that get a lot of corners.
- teams that I think should score 2 or more goals in the game.
- teams with players that are good in the air.

I'll try and improve on this system as time goes by and I learn from any mistakes.

First one up on the thread for me is Buy Melbourne Victory headed goal mins @ 10 with Sporting Index.

I watch a lot of the A-League and Victory have big centre halfs capable of headers - Delpierre. Their leading striker Bersat Berisha is good in the air and I believe Victory will score 2 or more in the game so a good chance of a header. The game is on BT Sport at 8.40 am today if anyone wants to watch it, I will be!
Last edited by bobslay13 on Fri Jan 02, 2015 3:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby redhammer » Fri Jan 02, 2015 8:22 am

It is well worth a look. Id be tempted to do every west ham game this month as sakho is away so Carroll will start and football is getting more direct and less on the deck.

I like your Chelsea one too, they are a team that is deemed dangerous at set pieces and corners.

Hull city (short term) might tempt me, couple of recent wins should install confidence and they (no stats. Just opinion/memory if correct) tend to do okay at set pieces

And the 4th would be west brom now pulis is there and especially when Olsson is back.

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Postby bobslay13 » Fri Jan 02, 2015 1:27 pm

Chelsea will be one to follow, especially if Costa is out and Drogba comes in. Yep agree on Hull too Curtis Davies, James Chester, Jelavic, Livermore and Huddlestone all aerial threats. Thanks for the heads up about West Brom, would probably have dismissed them but yeah Jonas Olsson's a huge danger man and if they play more of a direct game under Pulis will create more crosses for sure. Just going to try and find as many stats as I can about headers, crosses and corners and average team height to try and build up a bit of a bank of teams then when I think those teams are likely to win or score 2 or more and have an aerial advantage over their opposition, I'll back them. I think another key thing to this is finding teams with players with good crossing ability as some teams creative players favour playing the ball on the floor, Hazard springs to mind despite Chelsea's aerial threat, and after watching Victory this morning most of their creative work comes through Barbarouses who tends to keep it on the floor so not many chances coming in the air for Melbourne.

So this is a shortlist of teams with multiple players that are exceptional in the air that could be worth following when they are likely to win/score 2 or more and these players are starting. Any other suggestions much appreciated. Unfortunately the market isn't offered on leagues below the Championship but it is on some FA Cup games and other European games/divisions so will have a look at that this weekend.

Arsenal - Giroud, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Welbeck, Sanchez. Bit of an underrated one here. 7 of Arsenal's 33 goals this season have been headers and when Giroud starts they favour the aerial balls.

Blackburn - Gestede, Kilgallon, Hanley. 9 from 35. Decent return and more than capable of 2 or more goals against weaker sides. Gestede leads the Championship with 6 headers this season, half of his 12 goals.

Bournemouth - Wilson, Cook, Elphick, Pugh. 10 from 54. Bit of a lower ratio but if their minutes are below 20 could be worth it and Bournemouth are capable of running riot against some teams. Pugh has 3 headers.

Burnley - Shackell, Barnes, Ings. Burnley only have 2 headed goals this season but then they've only got 16 goals and we are witnessing a big improvement in their performances. Nearly had 3 headers at St James's so worth following I think.

Cardiff - Kenwyne Jones, Sean Morrison. 10 headers from 32 goals. Jones scored 22 all-time headers in the PL. Dangerous team in the air. Big Sean Morrison used to play for Swindon and friends with some of my old mates, he has 4 this season, most of any non-striker.

Chelsea - Terry, Ivanovic, Cahill, Costa, Matic, Drogba. 6 headed goals from 43. Not a bad return and a very big team dangerous from corners. Won't be buying at anything over 20 but worth a look in certain fixtures. Terry's 25 all time headers PL puts his 2nd of active players.

Crystal Palace - Dann, Delaney, Jedinak, Hangeland. 5 headers from 19 goals but I expect that ratio to increase. Should start to get some wins under Pardew.

Hull City - Jelavic, Davies, Chester. Starting to win again and 8 headers from 20 is a big chunk of their goals. Definitely worth a buy in some home games.

Ipswich - 10 from 41. McGoldrick, Murphy, Berra. Another side scoring a lot of goals and plenty from headers. Christophe Berra is a huge threat from set pieces. Murphy 2nd in the Championship with 5.

Man Utd - Falcao, Rooney, Fellaini. Just 5 headers from 33 goals but Falcao is renowned for his heading ability and starting to score. Fellaini is a danger from set peices when he's playing. Often score 3 or more goals at home so will buy their minutes in certain home fixtures. Rooney has 17 all time PL headers which isn't bad.

Norwich - Jerome, Martin, Grabban. 11 headers scored from 44. Jerome has 4 this season and Grabban 2. Canaries been better recently and many people fancy them to get promoted so could be in for a lot more goals.

Notts Forest - Assombalonga, Fryatt Blackstock. 11 headers scored from 33. 1/3 of their goals! Blackstock is renowned for his heading ability and featuring more regularly. Decent defenders coming up too. Britt has 4 this season and Fryatt has 3.

Reading - Cox, Murray. 11 headers scored from 30; over a third! Murray has 4 this season. Reading usually win at home so will probably be a buyer in most of their easier home fixture.

Stoke - Crouch, Shawcross, Diouf. 5 headers in 22 games and always likely to score headers when the big boys are on and up for corners/free kicks. Crouch is 3rd most all time PL headers with 42, Diouf has 2 this season.

West Brom - Dawson, McAuley, Olsson, Lescott. Pulis's arrival is only going to help this and the Baggies have scored 7 of their 18 goals from headers so that's a huge percentage. Home wins are likely to see a header from their big defenders.

West Ham - Sakho, Valencia, Carroll, Nolan, Collins. A whopping 14 of West Ham's 30 goals have been headers and though their goal minutes are higher I would imagine there's still some good profit to be made when expecting a West Ham win. Sakho has 5, 3 more than any other PL player this season.

Adding to all this in the PL Burnley have conceded the most headers (11), with Arsenal 9, Stoke, Newcastle and QPR all on 8 conceded. In the Championship; Birmingham 11, Bournemouth, Reading both 10, Brighton, Wigan and Watford all 9. Buying goal minutes of both sides headers in Bournemouth and Reading games could be fruitful.

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Postby bobslay13 » Fri Jan 02, 2015 3:40 pm

If and only if Kenwyne Jones and Sean Morrison start tonight I will be buying Cardiff's headed goal minutes @ 30. It's a far bigger spread than usual but I feel if Cardiff's side is reasonably strong they could win big and those two are dangerous in the air. Kenwyne Jones scored a 91st minute header last time out. That would be a massive win if he did the same tonight. In fact in Cardiff's 4-2 defeat to Watford 4 of those goals were headers. This explains the high spread on headed goal minutes.

Neither side in good form but Colchester have the ability to completely fold under pressure. Cardiff are usually good at home and even though Russell Slade’s making some changes tonight I still expect them to romp home. Colchester have conceded 3 or more in 9 of their 27 fixtures this season including 4 to Charlton in the League Cup, I don’t think they’ll hold up well against higher division opposition. Despite not winning in their last 5 Cardiff have still scored 8 in their last 4 games and I think that’s promising.

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Postby redhammer » Fri Jan 02, 2015 9:19 pm

And Cardiff score a header. Great profit and call. Well done

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Postby bobslay13 » Fri Jan 02, 2015 9:35 pm

Thanks mate, literally 30 seconds after Kenwyne Jones came on! Didn't have time to get the bet on as didn't see the substitution. Gutted. Anyway think this just shows how important certain players are for headed goal mins of most sides. Really liking the promise this is showing.

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Postby bobslay13 » Sat Jan 03, 2015 12:46 am

This weekend's headed goal minutes selections;

Buy Man United @ 18.

Yeovil are a weak side and have been dreadful all season at Huish Park. I know people will be thinking of a giant killing but it doesn't look remotely possible to me. United are more than capable of scoring headers; it could be worth seeing who's playing first but at a relatively low spread I'm buying their headed goal minutes regardless.

Buy West Brom @ 40.

A home fixture against non-league Gateshead first up for Pulis. The Baggies are very dangerous in the air, see above for their headed goal stats. I expect them to score at least 2/3 goals and though the line is high I think it should be pretty easy to break through. Smaller stakes on a line of this size though.

Buy West Ham @ 11.

As redhammer says could be worth waiting for the draw the day before but West Ham's heading stats are quite ridiculous and at this small risk there's potential for a huge ROI.

Buy Arsenal & Hull joint @ 33.

Both sides scoring headers this season and this could be quite a good game with a similar 2-2 score attracting me! If that's the case I'm almost certain one of those goals will be a header.

Buy Crystal Palace @ 18.

Non-league Dover are a plucky side but Palace have Premier League quality and a new manager to impress. Plenty of height in their team and good deliveries from the wings. Pretty low spread considering theirs 80+ places between these two.

I'm waiting to see if Sporting Index update the line's on Burnley, Chelsea, Ipswich, Notts Forest, Huddersfield/Reading and Stoke and if they do I'll have a rethink and update accordingly.

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Postby bobslay13 » Sat Jan 03, 2015 6:18 pm

West Brom score 7 goals but not one header! Can't believe it with some of the players they had on the pitch having such great heading ability! Ah well. Confident that this is still showing some great potential.

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Postby bobslay13 » Mon Jan 05, 2015 1:22 pm

I thought I'd work out my P&L from the 10 Headed goal minutes bets I've placed so far;

Derby County v Leeds. Buy Derby @ 13. Closing price @ 47.

Burnley v Newcastle. Buy Burnley @ 8. Closing price @ 66.

West Ham v West Brom. Buy West Ham @ 25. Closing price @ 10.

Tottenham v Chelsea. Buy Chelsea @ 14. Closing price @ 0.

Melbourne Victory v Perth Glory. Buy Victory @ 10. Closing price @ 0.

Cardiff City v Colchester. Buy Cardiff @ 30. Closing price @ 60.

Dover v Crystal Palace. Buy Palace @ 18. Closing price @ 34.

Arsenal v Hull. Buy Both @ 33. Closing price @ 20.

West Brom v Gateshead. Buy West Brom @ 40. Closing price @ 0.

Yeovil v Man United. Buy Man United @ 18. Closing price @ 0.

Total + 18 after 10 bets. I think what I've learn't is that Buying any minutes above 30 is dangerous and though West Brom could have scored 2 or 3 headers ultimately they didn't and the risk was too high in the first place. Too many teams scored early headers and not one of the 6 teams that scored a header scored one after the 66th minute so profit was never going to be through the roof. It's definitely worth waiting for the line-ups as watching Man United against Yeovil was really annoying. No Fellaini mean't less aerial balls and Falcao was taken off. James Wilson doesn't seem to like balls in the air and Mata, Herrera and Rafael tend to keep it on the floor. Had Valencia and Young been playing as well as RVP and Fellaini it could have been a different story but buying @ 18 meant the risk wasn't too bad.

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Postby bobslay13 » Tue Jan 06, 2015 9:47 pm

Everton v West Ham. Buy West Ham @ 11. Closing price @ 56.

West Ham end the FA Cup 3rd Round beautifully for me with a nice ROI in the headed goal minutes market. Thanks James Collins. Total LSP + 63. Very pleased with that and tempted to do my next blog entry on this. Will have a look at the weekend's fixtures over the next couple days.

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Postby redhammer » Tue Jan 06, 2015 10:09 pm

Was a great shout. Was delighted when it went in and Valencia almost made it 2 headers just straight after. Will join you on west ham against Swansea as Carroll back (he wadnt injured. Its his birthday today) and Swansea are terrified of him.

An lsp of 49 on west ham multi corners

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Postby bobslay13 » Wed Jan 07, 2015 12:52 am

Oh that explains his absence then! I've read Song's retired from International football so all good on that front. The spreads aren't up yet but I would imagine you'll be about 25 again, which is more attractive than it was against Everton in my opinion and you've just played Swansea so hopefully Sam has a good idea of how to play it this weekend. Congrats on those multi-corners mate, best corners bet I've ever seen! Glad you've got me on board with spread betting.

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