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West Ham looked a bit jaded in last weeks win over Luton and needed a bit of luck with their first goal to wake them up . That sort of performance will just not do against Man City especially as City are very hard to beat on their own patch .
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Arsenal have been in great form at home and apart from a sloppy loss to Villa they have made Highbury a fortress . Everton are just not scoring enough goals to fancy them getting anything from this game . If they get their average of 1 goal per game then a draw is the best they could hope for as Arsenal are one of the divisions top scoring sides .
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Wolves were swept away at home by Palace and on that showing they will be beaten at Liverpool in this game . Wolves have lost 4 of their last 5 games and conceded 8 goals over their last 2 games . Liverpool have scored 81 goals this season .
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West Ham were terrible in the first half last week and only a lucky goal in the 2nd half saw them finally get the win . If they turn up in that first half form against City then they will be hammerd . I have gone 3-0 but would not be surprised if it was more .
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Wolves were blown away at home by Palace last week and their recent form of 4 losses from their last 5 and concession of 12 goals with just 4 scored does not give them much of a chnance of winning at Liverpool . The stats say 3 -0 is the most likely result as Liverpool average over 2.5 per game and Wolves recent defensive frailty sees tham conceding around 2.5 per game .
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Spurs put in a decent performance against Man City only to lose 2-0 . They had chances to score in that game and on that form they should beat Sheffield United . They only beat Burnley 2-1 in their previous game and had only won 1 of their last 5 games . 4 of those games were against top 6 teams and they are better than the bare results show .
WIN @ / 0.50 hcap
Luton put up a brave fight to stay in the division and they should give Fulham a good game . They are still scoring goals and they face a Fulham side that have only won 1 of their last 5 games . If they get their average 1 goal per game then that may well be enough to cover the handicap as Fulham did not score in the last 2 games and only scored 4 goals in the previous 3 combined .
WIN @ / 0.25 hcap
Man United have blown hot and cold this season , but they are still scoring plenty of goals . Brighton's recent form is poor and I think that United will be able to get the away win . Brighton have only scored 3 goals over their last 5 games whereas United have scored 9.
WIN @ / 0.25 hcap
Forest are safe barring a miracle and can relax a little now . Burnley do not score enough goals to think they can win this easily , but they have been in good form and I think that 1 goal will be enough for at least a point and they do average that 1 per game and scored that 1 in each of their last 5 games .
WIN @ / 0.75 hcap
This is potentially the best game of the day . Villa have assured 4th place and Palace are in great form right now . Both teams look likely to go all out for the win and goals should be plentiful . Palace have scored 15 in their last 5 games and Villa 10 . I fancy the draw and a Villa win on the handicap .
WIN @ / 1.25 hcap
Chelsea have found their mojo and are one of the in form sides on recent form . Even so , I think they will find it hard to cover a 1.25 handicap star to a decent Bournemouth side that have scored in 4 of their last 5 games and average over 1 goal per game . 1 goal will mean Chelsea have to score 3 , that is hard to see as Bournemouth average under 2 per game conceded .
WIN @
A bit of a punt here as Arsenal, on all season form should win this game . I do think that Everton will know that Arsenal will have to go all out for the win and they can use that knowledge to set up a defensive set up that will frustrate Arsenals efforts . Everton are in pretty good form lately with 4 wins and a draw from their last 5 . They had clean sheets in 4 of those games and only conceded 1 goal in the other .
Profits calculated to a 10 point stake.
Value Rating is based on comparing the odds of a selection to the theoretical probability of winning based on the percentage of tips for it.